{"id":1614,"date":"2024-11-05T15:29:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-05T12:29:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/factcheck.lt\/?p=1614"},"modified":"2025-05-02T18:22:03","modified_gmt":"2025-05-02T15:22:03","slug":"","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/factcheck.lt\/eng\/news\/sobchak_protasevich_interview\/","title":{"rendered":"Interview with Roman Protasevich: Analysis of manipulations, reaction of Belarusian YouTube channels","raw":"Interview with Roman Protasevich: Analysis of manipulations, reaction of Belarusian YouTube channels"},"content":{"rendered":"

On October 14, 2024, an interview with Roman Protasevich was published on the YouTube channel “Ostorozhno: Sobchak”<\/strong> (3.83 million subscribers). This interview<\/a> attracted attention not only for its manipulative and disinformative narratives but also because it quickly entered YouTube Trending in Belarus. Let’s analyze this interview as part of a communication campaign.<\/p>\n

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Methodology<\/strong>
\nThe main product for collecting YouTube Trending data was the Oxylabs Web Scraper API, provided as part of Project 4\u03b2<\/a>. Data from the October dataset<\/a>, collected by Information Policy Blog, was obtained using YouTube API v3. Additionally, two LLMs\u2014AssemblyAI and OpenAI\u2014were used through the API for narrative analysis and transcription. The prototype was tested<\/a> on July data related to election campaigns.<\/p>\n

Let’s first recall who Roman Protasevich<\/strong> is, known as “Lukashenko’s hostage.” He was the editor of the Belarusian outlet NEXTA, which covered the protests following the 2020 Belarus elections. In spring 2021, a Ryanair flight from Athens to Vilnius, carrying Protasevich and Sofia Sapega, was forcibly landed in Minsk, and the journalist was sent to prison. Now Roman is free, works at a factory, and praises Lukashenko.<\/p>\n

Ksenia Sobchak’s interview with Roman Protasevich, titled “PROTASEVICH: How to Stop Being Afraid and Love Lukashenko. About NEXTA, Torture, and the KGB (featuring Azaryonka)”<\/a> stayed in YouTube Trending in Belarus for 21 days.
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On October 16, TV Rain released an analysis of the interview with the title: “Sobchak with Lukashenko’s Hostage. What’s Wrong with Protasevich’s Interview?”<\/a> This material also entered YouTube Trending in Belarus but stayed there for a shorter time (15 days).
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The growth in views while being in YouTube Trending in Belarus:
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It can be assumed that the “saturation point,” that is, the moment when the number of views began to grow insignificantly, occurred two weeks later (2024-10-29) after entering the trends. The growth in views of the video on the “Ostorozhno: Sobchak” channel was exponential.<\/p>\n

Let’s take a look at some socio-demographic characteristics of these two YouTube channels that are working with the Belarusian political agenda and successfully advancing in the Belarusian information space.<\/p>\n

The “Ostorozhno: Sobchak” channel is closely linked with major channels on other key platforms:
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Basic socio-demographic characteristics:
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The share of subscribers from Belarus\u20143.39%\u2014seems insignificant, but given the total number of subscribers\u20143.83 million\u2014130,000 Belarusian subscribers is quite significant.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s also add a seriously underestimated metric in Belarus: the number of notable subscribers:
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As can be seen, five influencers have more subscribers than the “Ostorozhno: Sobchak” channel itself.<\/p>\n

TV Rain has more subscribers on YouTube. On other platforms, it lags behind “Ostorozhno: Sobchak”:
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Basic socio-demographic characteristics:
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Unlike “Ostorozhno: Sobchak,” most of TV Rain\u2019s subscribers are men. The share of subscribers from Belarus is 3.6%. Out of 4.7 million, this is almost 170,000 subscribers.<\/p>\n

Let’s also look at the key influencers who are subscribed to the channel:
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Interestingly, “Ostorozhno: Sobchak” ranks second among influential subscribers.<\/p>\n

Analysis of Sobchak’s Interview with Protasevich<\/strong><\/p>\n

Watching and analyzing an interview that lasts 2.5 hours is quite a challenging task technologically. First, let\u2019s create a “word cloud”<\/strong><\/em> based on the words used by the speakers:
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Frequency analysis confirms that the surname of the Belarusian regime leader over the last thirty years is mentioned frequently:
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Some relationships between mentions in the interview were also discovered:
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In this analysis, we will focus on the content of the interview, fact-checking statements, and identifying key manipulative narratives.<\/p>\n

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  1. Portrayal of the Opposition and Its Leaders<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    In the interview, Roman Protasevich repeatedly describes the opposition in a negative light, using derogatory characteristics and emphasizing their weakness. For example, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is described as a “technical candidate” who lacks the necessary skills to participate fully in political life. Protasevich also states that “she wouldn’t be able to withstand a debate with Lukashenko.” These claims are intended to discredit the opposition and create the impression of a lack of viable alternatives to the current president.<\/p>\n

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    1. The Role of Belarusian Security Structures<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      Security structures such as the KGB of Belarus are portrayed exclusively in a positive light in the interview. Protasevich says that KGB officers “treated me absolutely humanely, without hatred,” which contrasts with numerous reports by human rights organizations about human rights violations in Belarus. Such a portrayal of the KGB aims to create a positive image of state security structures and reduce criticism of them.<\/p>\n

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      1. Narratives of External Threat and Stability<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        The interview actively uses narratives of external threat and the need to protect against interference from Western countries. Protasevich claims that Belarus “avoided war thanks to Lukashenko,” emphasizing the president’s wisdom and foresight. This approach helps create the image of Lukashenko as the guarantor of security and stability, even though the real political processes in the region are much more complex and multifaceted.<\/p>\n

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        1. Demonstration of “Repentance” and Support for the Government<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          Protasevich is portrayed as someone who “realized his mistakes” and now supports the current government. This creates a narrative of forgiveness and the possibility of return for those willing to cooperate with the authorities. It is important to note that Protasevich’s statements about his support for Lukashenko raise doubts about their voluntariness, considering the context of his detention and possible pressure from the security services.<\/p>\n

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          1. Discrediting Independent Media<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

            In the interview, Protasevich claims that opposition media “just reprint information from state sources, adding emotional coloring.” This statement is aimed at discrediting independent media and creating the impression of their incompetence and lack of professionalism. Such distortion of reality serves to reduce trust in alternative sources of information and strengthen the position of state media.<\/p>\n

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            1. Fact-Checking Key Statements<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n