{"id":4087,"date":"2025-09-23T21:09:48","date_gmt":"2025-09-23T18:09:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/factcheck.lt\/?p=4087"},"modified":"2025-09-24T15:33:59","modified_gmt":"2025-09-24T12:33:59","slug":"","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/factcheck.lt\/eng\/news\/zapad2025_zapad2021_tg_channels\/","title":{"rendered":"Comparative study of coverage of the Zapad 2021 and Zapad 2025 military exercises on Belarusian Telegram channels","raw":"Comparative study of coverage of the Zapad 2021 and Zapad 2025 military exercises on Belarusian Telegram channels"},"content":{"rendered":"

Key findings of the study \/ TL;DR<\/strong><\/p>\n

The level of information risks in the 2025 campaign is significantly higher than in 2021.
\nInformation activity in 2025 increased by 48%
\nThe main topics of the 2021 and 2025 information campaigns differ significantly.
\nA total of 7,877 messages were analyzed. The total number of views was 44,190,462. The change in activity was +48% for posts in 2025 compared to 2021. The risk level was +0.2, representing a change in the average risk level.<\/p>\n

Methodology<\/strong>
\nTGStat, a Telegram channel analytics service, was used to collect data. The query “West-2025” was used in Belarusian and Russian only in Belarusian Telegram channels. The time period was 2021 and 2025, from January 1 to September 21. The LLM model gpt-4o-mini-2024-07-18 was used to analyze the posts.<\/p>\n

The following prompt was used for the analysis:<\/p>\n


\n\u041f\u0440\u043e\u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437\u0438\u0440\u0443\u0439 \u0441\u043b\u0435\u0434\u0443\u044e\u0449\u0435\u0435 \u0441\u043e\u043e\u0431\u0449\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0438\u0437 \u0431\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0433\u043e Telegram \u043a\u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0430 \u043e \u0432\u043e\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0443\u0447\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f\u0445 \"\u0417\u0430\u043f\u0430\u0434-{exercise_year}\".<\/code>
\n
\n\u041a\u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b: {channel}
\n\u041f\u0440\u043e\u0441\u043c\u043e\u0442\u0440\u043e\u0432: {views}
\n\u041f\u043e\u0434\u043f\u0438\u0441\u0447\u0438\u043a\u043e\u0432: {subscribers}<\/p>\n

\u0422\u0435\u043a\u0441\u0442 \u0441\u043e\u043e\u0431\u0449\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f: \"{message_text[:4096]}...\"<\/p>\n

\u041e\u0446\u0435\u043d\u0438 \u043f\u043e \u0448\u043a\u0430\u043b\u0435 \u043e\u0442 1 \u0434\u043e 5 \u0441\u043b\u0435\u0434\u0443\u044e\u0449\u0438\u0435 \u0430\u0441\u043f\u0435\u043a\u0442\u044b:
\n1. \u041f\u0440\u043e\u043f\u0430\u0433\u0430\u043d\u0434\u0438\u0441\u0442\u0441\u043a\u0430\u044f \u043d\u0430\u043f\u0440\u0430\u0432\u043b\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c (1 - \u043d\u0435\u0439\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430\u044f \u0438\u043d\u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0446\u0438\u044f, 5 - \u044f\u0432\u043d\u0430\u044f \u043f\u0440\u043e\u043f\u0430\u0433\u0430\u043d\u0434\u0430)
\n2. \u0414\u0435\u0437\u0438\u043d\u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0446\u0438\u044f (1 - \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0435\u0440\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u0444\u0430\u043a\u0442\u044b, 5 - \u044f\u0432\u043d\u0430\u044f \u043b\u043e\u0436\u044c\/\u043c\u0430\u043d\u0438\u043f\u0443\u043b\u044f\u0446\u0438\u0438)
\n3. \u0423\u0433\u0440\u043e\u0436\u0430\u044e\u0449\u0438\u0439 \u0442\u043e\u043d (1 - \u043c\u0438\u0440\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u0442\u043e\u043d, 5 - \u043f\u0440\u044f\u043c\u044b\u0435 \u0443\u0433\u0440\u043e\u0437\u044b)
\n4. \u0410\u043d\u0442\u0438\u0437\u0430\u043f\u0430\u0434\u043d\u0430\u044f \u0440\u0438\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0438\u043a\u0430 (1 - \u043d\u0435\u0439\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e \u043a \u0417\u0430\u043f\u0430\u0434\u0443, 5 - \u044f\u0432\u043d\u0430\u044f \u0432\u0440\u0430\u0436\u0434\u0435\u0431\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c)
\n5. \u0412\u043e\u0435\u043d\u043d\u0430\u044f \u044d\u0441\u043a\u0430\u043b\u0430\u0446\u0438\u044f (1 - \u043c\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0442\u0432\u043e\u0440\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0439 \u0442\u043e\u043d, 5 - \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0437\u044b\u0432\u044b \u043a \u043a\u043e\u043d\u0444\u043b\u0438\u043a\u0442\u0443)<\/p>\n

\u0422\u0430\u043a\u0436\u0435 \u043e\u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0435\u043b\u0438:
\n- \u041e\u0441\u043d\u043e\u0432\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u0442\u0435\u043c\u044b (\u0434\u043e 5 \u043a\u043b\u044e\u0447\u0435\u0432\u044b\u0445 \u0442\u0435\u043c)
\n- \u0422\u043e\u043d: \u043d\u0435\u0439\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0439\/\u043f\u043e\u0437\u0438\u0442\u0438\u0432\u043d\u044b\u0439\/\u043d\u0435\u0433\u0430\u0442\u0438\u0432\u043d\u044b\u0439\/\u0430\u0433\u0440\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0438\u0432\u043d\u044b\u0439
\n- \u0426\u0435\u043b\u0435\u0432\u0430\u044f \u0430\u0443\u0434\u0438\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0438\u044f: \u0432\u043e\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435\/\u0433\u0440\u0430\u0436\u0434\u0430\u043d\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0435\/\u043c\u0435\u0436\u0434\u0443\u043d\u0430\u0440\u043e\u0434\u043d\u0430\u044f\/\u0432\u043d\u0443\u0442\u0440\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044f\u044f
\n- \u0423\u043f\u043e\u043c\u0438\u043d\u0430\u043d\u0438\u044f \u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d (\u0441\u043f\u0438\u0441\u043e\u043a \u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d, \u0435\u0441\u043b\u0438 \u0435\u0441\u0442\u044c)<\/p>\n

\u041e\u0442\u0432\u0435\u0442\u044c \u0421\u0422\u0420\u041e\u0413\u041e \u0432 \u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0442\u0435 JSON:
\n{{
\n\"propaganda_score\": \u0447\u0438\u0441\u043b\u043e_\u043e\u0442_1_\u0434\u043e_5,
\n\"disinformation_score\": \u0447\u0438\u0441\u043b\u043e_\u043e\u0442_1_\u0434\u043e_5,
\n\"threat_score\": \u0447\u0438\u0441\u043b\u043e_\u043e\u0442_1_\u0434\u043e_5,
\n\"anti_western_score\": \u0447\u0438\u0441\u043b\u043e_\u043e\u0442_1_\u0434\u043e_5,
\n\"escalation_score\": \u0447\u0438\u0441\u043b\u043e_\u043e\u0442_1_\u0434\u043e_5,
\n\"main_themes\": [\"\u0442\u0435\u043c\u04301\", \"\u0442\u0435\u043c\u04302\"],
\n\"tone\": \"\u0442\u043e\u043d\",
\n\"target_audience\": \"\u0430\u0443\u0434\u0438\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0438\u044f\",
\n\"mentioned_countries\": [\"\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d\u04301\", \"\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d\u04302\"],
\n\"summary\": \"\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0442\u043a\u043e\u0435 \u0440\u0435\u0437\u044e\u043c\u0435 \u0432 1-2 \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u043b\u043e\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f\u0445\"
\n}}
\n<\/code><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Comparison table of results for 2021 and 2025:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n
\n
Zapad-2021 exercises<\/strong><\/p>\n
Risk level: Medium (2.77\/5)<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Messages analyzed:<\/strong><\/td>\n3179<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Total views:<\/strong><\/td>\n13,890,174<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Average views per post:<\/strong><\/td>\n4,369<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Channels involved:<\/strong><\/td>\n313<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
High risk messages:<\/strong><\/td>\n2729<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\ud83d\udcca Average ratings by criteria:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Propaganda:<\/td>\n4.04\/5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Disinformation:<\/td>\n1.99\/5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Threats:<\/td>\n2.06\/5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Anti-Westernism:<\/td>\n3.33\/5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Escalation:<\/td>\n2.42\/5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\ud83d\udd25 Main topics:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n
    \n
  • military exercises (1981 mentions)<\/li>\n
  • security (493 mentions)<\/li>\n
  • cooperation between Belarus and Russia (435 mentions)<\/li>\n
  • Zapad-2021 exercises (388 mentions)<\/li>\n
  • collaboration (201 mentions)<\/li>\n
  • military cooperation (190 mentions)<\/li>\n
  • cooperation with Russia (182 mentions)<\/li>\n
  • regional stability (177 mentions)<\/li>\n
  • national security (149 mentions)<\/li>\n
  • joint exercises (141 mentions)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n

    \ud83c\udf0d Most frequently mentioned countries:<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
      \n
    • Belarus (2902 mentions)<\/li>\n
    • Russia (2708 mentions)<\/li>\n
    • Poland (284 mentions)<\/li>\n
    • Ukraine (274 mentions)<\/li>\n
    • Lithuania (252 mentions)<\/li>\n
    • USA (236 mentions)<\/li>\n
    • NATO (204 mentions)<\/li>\n
    • Kazakhstan (136 mentions)<\/li>\n
    • Latvia (129 mentions)<\/li>\n
    • Western countries (111 mentions)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
Zapad-2025 exercises<\/strong><\/p>\n
Risk level: Medium (3.00\/5)<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Messages analyzed:<\/strong><\/td>\n4698<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Total views:<\/strong><\/td>\n30,300,288<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Average views per post:<\/strong><\/td>\n6,450<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Channels involved:<\/strong><\/td>\n474<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
High risk messages:<\/strong><\/td>\n3941<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\ud83d\udcca Average ratings by criteria:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Propaganda:<\/td>\n4.01\/5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Disinformation:<\/td>\n2.31\/5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Threats:<\/td>\n2.32\/5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Anti-Westernism:<\/td>\n3.64\/5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Escalation:<\/td>\n2.72\/5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\ud83d\udd25 Main topics:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n