{"id":5026,"date":"2026-05-18T15:27:56","date_gmt":"2026-05-18T12:27:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/factcheck.lt\/?p=5026"},"modified":"2026-05-19T14:04:24","modified_gmt":"2026-05-19T11:04:24","slug":"predictions_analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/factcheck.lt\/eng\/news\/predictions_analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"When predictions fail to materialise: an analysis of predictions about Belarus made fifteen years ago","raw":"When predictions fail to materialise: an analysis of predictions about Belarus made fifteen years ago"},"content":{"rendered":"

TL;DR<\/strong><\/p>\n

Using our analytical platform, which contains over 1.9 million documents from Belarusian state and independent media, we conducted a systematic verification of forecasts made about the future of Belarus between 2005 and 2013.<\/p>\n

This analysis utilized two historical archives: a collection of over 20,000 English-language articles about Belarus from 2005 to 2011, and 1,346 think tank publications covering the period from 1996 to 2021. We scanned 21,511 documents using semantic search, extracted 715 specific predictive statements, and assessed the 157 most verifiable of them against the current situation.<\/p>\n

Result: Overall Accuracy65.0<\/strong> from 100<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

What was predicted?<\/H3>In the years between the disputed 2006 elections and the catastrophic defeat of December 2010, a characteristic consensus emerged among Western analysts. Belarus was finally ready for change. Lukashenko, under economic pressure and in periodic conflict with Moscow, would be forced to liberalize. The EU’s “Eastern Partnership” offered incentives. A new generation of Belarusians, connected to the world via the internet, would demand change.<\/p>\n

Specific predictions sounded like this. In 2009, analysts wrote that Lukashenko’s reaction “could be a radical turn toward the EU.” In 2010, they asserted: “This model can and should work, as Ukraine’s experience has shown,” implying that Belarus was capable of simultaneously being friends with Russia and joining the EU. The irony of this phrase, written before Crimea, before 2020, before everything that followed, is double. Lukashenko personally promised an average salary of $500, calling it a “sacred number.” State plans envisioned GDP growth of 11-13%. Analysts at e-belarus.org were no exception: they predicted an improvement in Belarus’s position in the ITU rankings by 2015.<\/p>\n

Another example is also telling: in 2010, opposition candidate Andrei Sannikov welcomed what he called“the last year of the dictatorship,”<\/i>Rejecting Lukashenko’s regime as incapable of overcoming current problems. Following mass protests on December 19, 2010, he was arrested and sentenced to five years in prison in May 2011. He spent a total of approximately 16 months in prison. Sixteen years later, Lukashenko remains in power.<\/p>\n

What happened?<\/H3>Reality took a different turn. Instead of emerging from isolation, Belarus sank deeper into authoritarianism after the 2020 elections, becoming more dependent on Russia than at any point since independence. Instead of integrating with the EU, the regime firmly entrenched itself in Moscow’s orbit, deploying tactical nuclear weapons on its territory. The balancing act that had defined Belarusian policy for two decades collapsed.<\/p>\n

The 2020 protests triggered the most brutal repression in the country’s post-Soviet history. More than 200,000 people fled Belarus. Independent media were systematically destroyed. Civil society organizations were shut down or driven underground. An entire media ecosystem relocated to Poland, Lithuania, and Georgia, continuing its work from exile.<\/p>\n

The promised economic modernization did not materialize as predicted. The “holy number” of $500 was derailed by the 2011 currency crisis. According to Belstat data for March 2026, the nominal accrued average salary is 2,975.8 rubles (approximately $1,069 at the current exchange rate), while the median, calculated for November 2025, is 2,081.7 rubles (approximately $748). Formally, the “sacred number” is doubled, but the context is radically different. The net median salary of an average worker (after deducting 13% income tax and 1% contribution to the Social Security Fund) is approximately $643. The Belarusian ruble has strengthened against the dollar by 20% in 2025, artificially inflating the dollar equivalent. The range across industries is enormous: from 6,957 rubles in the IT sector to 2,066 rubles in education. The Belarusian economy is now structurally dependent on the needs of Russia’s militarized economy, and rising housing costs are largely due to the relocation of Russian citizens. When compared with the Baltic states and Poland, the gap remains stark, although domestic discourse compensates for this with arguments about the cost of food and utilities.<\/p>\n

The information environment has evolved in directions almost no one foresaw. A 2006 article warned that“The internet in Belarus will soon be under state control.”<\/i><\/strong>At the time, it sounded alarmist. It turned out to be one of the most accurate forecasts in the entire corpus.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Scorecard<\/H3>Of the 157 forecasts evaluated, 84 were confirmed, 27 were partially confirmed, 39 were refuted, and 4 were inverted: the exact opposite occurred.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The confirmed forecasts paint a recognizable portrait. “Lukashenko will declare victory in the 2010 elections” (100\/100). “The authorities will use all means to suppress the opposition rally” (95\/100). “Opposition candidates will not be elected due to an unfair electoral process” (95\/100). “Belarus will remain heavily dependent on Russian energy” (95\/100). “This law is another attack on media independence” (95\/100, source: Reporters Without Borders). All describe the mechanics of authoritarian control. All took the regime’s statements literally.<\/p>\n

The partially confirmed forecasts point in the right direction, but are off in scale. “Belarus will be forced to join Russia on Russia’s terms” (75\/100): dependence has increased, but formal annexation has not occurred. “Rising gas prices will pose a serious challenge” (70\/100): the 2011 crisis occurred, but the regime survived.<\/p>\n

The disproven are united by a belief in the inevitability of change. “2010 will be the last year of the dictatorship” (5\/100). “Belarus will enter the top 30 countries for business climate” (5\/100). “Lukashenko will extend a hand to the moderate opposition after international condemnation” (5\/100). “GDP will grow by 11-13%” (15\/100, source: Jamestown Foundation).<\/p>\n

Four inverted: the exact opposite occurred. “Lukashenko could make a radical turn toward the EU” (5\/100). “Belarus could follow the Ukrainian model” (5\/100). “Belarus should integrate into the global economy and move toward Europe” (10\/100). “Belarus is emerging from isolation and will continue dialogue with the EU” (15\/100). All four touched on the European vector. Each predicted rapprochement. Each saw the opposite.<\/p>\n

Domain Accuracy<\/H3>Accuracy varied dramatically across topics, and this pattern is a central finding of the study.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Domain<\/th>\nAccuracy<\/th>\nCharacteristic<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Media\/information<\/td>\n84.6%<\/td>\nPredictions about control over the Internet and the press<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Safety<\/td>\n82.4%<\/td>\nForecasts about the ability of security forces to suppress<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Civil society<\/td>\n72.8%<\/td>\nForecasts of pressure on organizations<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Technologies<\/td>\n69.5%<\/td>\nInfrastructure is correct, ratings are not.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Social sphere<\/td>\n60.0%<\/td>\nLimited sample (3 forecasts)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Geopolitics<\/td>\n54.5%<\/td>\nSystemic reassessment of the European vector<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Policy<\/td>\n54.4%<\/td>\nElections are correct, transit is not.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Economy<\/td>\n46.2%<\/td>\nPropaganda was taken for a forecast<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

The closer to the mechanics of authoritarianism, the more accurate the forecast. The closer to expectations of change, the worse.<\/p>\n

Who was wrong: source ranking<\/H3>Attribution of forecasts to sources through text extraction from the database revealed three analytical schools with varying degrees of accuracy.<\/p>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Source<\/th>\nAccuracy<\/th>\nForecasts<\/th>\nSchool<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Belapan<\/td>\n91.0<\/td>\n3<\/td>\nDocumenting<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Reporters Without Borders (RSF)<\/td>\n88.3<\/td>\n12<\/td>\nDocumenting<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Reuters<\/td>\n86.5<\/td>\n2<\/td>\nDocumenting<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Charter97<\/td>\n72.5<\/td>\n4<\/td>\nOpposition<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
OSCE<\/td>\n57.5<\/td>\n4<\/td>\nDiplomatic<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BBC<\/td>\n57.0<\/td>\n5<\/td>\nInstitutional<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Radio Liberty<\/td>\n49.7<\/td>\n6<\/td>\nTransitological<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jamestown Foundation<\/td>\n18.3<\/td>\n3<\/td>\nTransitological<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

The documentation school (RSF, Belapan, Reuters) recorded the regime’s actions without interpreting its intentions through the lens of democratization. Accuracy: 86-91%.<\/p>\n

The diplomatic-institutional school (OSCE, BBC) balanced between realism and normative expectations. Accuracy: 57-58%.<\/p>\n

The transitional school (Jamestown Foundation, Radio Liberty) applied democratic transition models. Accuracy: 18-50%.<\/p>\n

A 70-point gap between RSF and the Jamestown Foundation: a single figure that explains twenty years of erroneous forecasting. The further the analyst departs from the facts and the closer to democratic transition theory, the worse the forecast.<\/p>\n

What words predicted the error?<\/H3>A lexical analysis of 157 assessed forecasts (forecast text only, without retrospective explanations) revealed a strong correlation between word usage and accuracy.<\/p>\n

Words that appeared exclusively in failed forecasts: “potential,” “become,” “top,” “world,” “protest,” “rise,” “must,” “reform,” “europe.” Words that appeared exclusively in accurate forecasts: “independent,” “media,” “elections,” “authorities,” “gas,” “presidential.”<\/p>\n

When grouped into narrative clusters, the picture became even clearer. Authoritarian consolidation cluster (control, pressure, restrictions, surveillance, dependence): 6 accurate, 0 incorrect. 100% accuracy. European transition cluster (reform, integration, business, openness): 3 accurate, 4 incorrect. 43%.<\/p>\n

Wordstability<\/strong>It appears only in accurate forecasts. When analysts used it to describe the institutional resilience of authoritarianism, they were right. The regime’s propaganda about the “island of stability” uses the same word, but with the opposite meaning: not a diagnosis, but an advertising slogan. For all these years, state media have systematically exacerbated the problems of democratic countries and presented Belarus as an island of order in a “sea of chaos.” Today, this narrative is in remarkable contradiction with the growing rhetoric of ideological warfare: the regime simultaneously tells the population that Belarus is uniquely stable and that it is under siege, and that sanctions are an existential threat.<\/p>\n

The language of democratic transition (“transition,” “reform,” “democratization,” “opening,” “crossroads”) was found in erroneous forecasts 1.6 times more often. The more the analyst used this vocabulary, the worse the forecast. The more the language described
\nthe system as it is, rather than as it should be, the closer it came to reality.<\/p>\n

The paradox of confidence<\/H3>The hypothesis was that the most confident predictions would be the most erroneous. The data showed the opposite.<\/p>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Confidence level<\/th>\nAverage accuracy<\/th>\nForecasts<\/th>\nCatastrophic failures<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
High<\/td>\n78.7<\/td>\n60<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Average<\/td>\n47.5<\/td>\n34<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cautious<\/td>\n44.3<\/td>\n10<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

High-confidence forecasts were confident in the mechanics of authoritarianism: “Lukashenko will definitely win,” “the authorities will definitely suppress,” “the media will definitely be restricted.” The authors were confident in negative outcomes, and they were right. Moderately confident and cautious forecasts were unsure about positive scenarios: “Belarus could move toward the EU,” “reforms are possible.” The authors were doubtful, and rightly so, but for the wrong reasons: they assumed both outcomes, while reality only allowed for one.<\/p>\n

Not overconfidence, but asymmetric certainty: analysts were correctly calibrated when they said what the regime would do, and uncalibrated when they said that the regime might change.<\/p>\n

What no one foresaw<\/H3>Of the 12 key developments that defined Belarus after 2013, we checked for each in a corpus of 715 forecasts. Ten turned out to be complete blind spots: not a single mention. A total repressive restructuring of the state. Emigration of over 200,000 people. Telegram as an infrastructure for protests and media in exile. The deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons. The use of migration as a weapon against the EU. The interception of a Ryanair flight. Loss of information sovereignty. A complete internet shutdown as a crisis management tool. The normalization of a state of emergency for years. The use of Belarusian territory to invade Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Only mass protests were partially predicted (one mention: “if hundreds of thousands come out, the security forces will go over to the side of the people,” which also turned out to be an error). Mass emigration received one partial mention: “continued repression could lead to mass emigration.”<\/p>\n

With a doubled sample size (715 instead of 349 forecasts), not a single new topic moved from a blind spot to a predictable one. This is not an artifact of the small sample size, but a structural property of analytical thinking from 2005 to 2013.<\/p>\n

False thaws<\/H3>A time-lapse analysis revealed three periods when forecast optimism was high and forecast accuracy was low.<\/p>\n

2007:<\/strong>The gas conflict with Russia has sparked expectations of a turn toward the West. Optimism: 38.8%; accuracy: 42.5 out of 100.<\/p>\n

2009:<\/strong>The global financial crisis and the “thaw” in relations with the EU. Peak optimism: 47.8%, low pessimism: 15.9%. Analysts widely predicted a rapprochement with Europe. A year later, the mayhem in the square occurred.<\/p>\n

2010:<\/strong>Election cycle. 232 forecasts, more than any other year. Optimism 42.7%, accuracy 44.7 out of 100.<\/p>\n

Every event interpreted as a “breakthrough” (the release of political prisoners, dialogue with the EU, the gas conflict, the economic crisis) generated a wave of liberalization forecasts. Almost all of them failed. After 2010, optimism fell to 28.1%, pessimism rose to 56.2%. Reality shattered these illusions, but only temporarily: in 2012-2013, optimism returned in the technological domain.<\/p>\n

Why They Went Wrong: Five Systemic Biases<\/H3><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Belief in the inevitability of democratization.<\/strong>Analysts considered authoritarianism a transitional phase, not a stable state. In 2005, it was predicted that “Belarusian youth will be very active in the 2006 elections, and it will be a year of great change.” A direct import of the Georgian and Ukrainian scenarios into a country where it didn’t work.<\/p>\n

Reassessing economic incentives.<\/strong>When faced with a choice between economic efficiency and political control, Lukashenko invariably chose control. This pattern can be traced through the 2011 currency crisis, the post-sanctions adaptation after 2020, and the current economic integration with Russia.<\/p>\n

The illusion of multi-vectorality.<\/strong>It seemed as if Belarus could balance endlessly between Russia and the EU. One analyst in 2006 was closer to the truth than most: “Despite some in the West’s hopes, Belarus is not another domino ready to fall at the first election.” This forecast received a score of 95.<\/p>\n

Underestimating the adaptability of the regime.<\/strong>The focus was on weaknesses, overlooking potential. Political scientist Vladimir Podgol in 2007: “The protest potential is too small to bring about political change, and propaganda will not allow it to grow.” He proved right 13 years later.<\/p>\n

Mistaking propaganda for a forecast.<\/strong>When the regime promised 11-13% GDP growth or entry into the top 30 countries for business climate, analysts took it as a plan. It was always propaganda.<\/p>\n

Information space<\/H3>Belarusian state media have become part of the Russian information space. European institutions distinguish between foreign information manipulation (FIMI) and domestic information manipulation (DIMI). In Belarus, this distinction has become irreconcilable: narratives originating in Russia are coordinated through TASS and amplified through Belarusian channels, while the regime’s own propaganda (the “island of stability” narrative) employs the same techniques. The two countries’ information systems have merged to the point where distinctions are impossible. Sovereign information production within the country has effectively ceased to exist as a separate category.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The detection rate of information manipulation in Belarusian state media, according to FORESIGHT, is as follows: economics 94.8%, media\/information 81.2%, politics 67.7%, geopolitics 67.5%, civil society 66.6%, and technology 57.8%.<\/p>\n

What follows from this?<\/H3>Pay close attention when the current regime talks about restrictions. Media control laws, requirements for re-registration of organizations, internet surveillance laws: when analysts took such statements literally, the accuracy rate exceeded 85%. When interpreted as a negotiating position, it fell below 50%.<\/p>\n

Don’t trust the regime when it promises development. Economic, technological, and social targets turned out to be the least reliable forecasts.<\/p>\n

Don’t project other people’s experiences. Neither the Georgian, Ukrainian, nor Polish scenarios applied to Belarus. Every forecast based on analogy failed.<\/p>\n

Evaluate the stability of the regime, not the potential of the opposition. Forecasts about the strength of the opposition consistently achieved 20-30% accuracy. Forecasts about the strength of the regime, 85-95%.<\/p>\n

Look at the information environment. The degree of integration of Belarusian state media into the Russian information space is the most significant and least discussed indicator of the loss of sovereignty.<\/p>\n

Issues of succession are becoming increasingly pressing. The forecasting failures of the last twenty years provide grounds for caution.<\/p>\n

What’s next?<\/H3>
\nCycles of false thaw. Each event interpreted as an “opening” generated a wave of predictions of liberalization. It’s possible to measure which events generated the greatest surge of false optimism and how long it took for these predictions to be disproved.<\/p>\n

\nWhat no one predicted. Why were 10 of the 12 key developments completely absent from the forecast? What exactly in the analytical thinking of 2005-2013 created blind spots?\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Can forecast vocabulary predict its accuracy? Preliminary data show that the authoritarian consolidation cluster yielded 100% accuracy, while the European transition cluster yielded 43%. If this pattern is confirmed across a larger sample, it allows for the construction of quantitative models to assess analytical quality.<\/p>\n

Comparison with other countries. Are the same distortions repeated in forecasts for Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and Central Asian countries? If so, the Belarusian case becomes a critique of post-Soviet forecasting in general, and the methodology can be applied to any authoritarian context.<\/p>\n


\nAbout the data.<\/strong>Forecasts were extracted from archives spanning 2005-2011 and 1,346 publications, spanning 1996-2021, using the following pipeline: semantic filtering via pgvector (500 candidates from 21,511 documents), structured extraction via Claude Sonnet (715 forecasts), and evaluation using FORESIGHT platform data (1.9 million documents, 50 sources, spanning 2024-2026). All data and scripts are available upon request for research purposes.<\/small><\/p>\n","protected":false,"raw":"TL;DR<\/strong>\r\n\r\nUsing our analytical platform, which contains over 1.9 million documents from Belarusian state and independent media, we conducted a systematic verification of forecasts made about the future of Belarus between 2005 and 2013.\r\n\r\nThis analysis utilized two historical archives: a collection of over 20,000 English-language articles about Belarus from 2005 to 2011, and 1,346 think tank publications covering the period from 1996 to 2021. We scanned 21,511 documents using semantic search, extracted 715 specific predictive statements, and assessed the 157 most verifiable of them against the current situation.\r\n\r\nResult: Overall Accuracy65.0<\/strong> from 100<\/strong>.\r\n\r\n

What was predicted?<\/H3>In the years between the disputed 2006 elections and the catastrophic defeat of December 2010, a characteristic consensus emerged among Western analysts. Belarus was finally ready for change. Lukashenko, under economic pressure and in periodic conflict with Moscow, would be forced to liberalize. The EU's \"Eastern Partnership\" offered incentives. A new generation of Belarusians, connected to the world via the internet, would demand change.\r\n\r\nSpecific predictions sounded like this. In 2009, analysts wrote that Lukashenko's reaction \"could be a radical turn toward the EU.\" In 2010, they asserted: \"This model can and should work, as Ukraine's experience has shown,\" implying that Belarus was capable of simultaneously being friends with Russia and joining the EU. The irony of this phrase, written before Crimea, before 2020, before everything that followed, is double. Lukashenko personally promised an average salary of $500, calling it a \"sacred number.\" State plans envisioned GDP growth of 11-13%. Analysts at e-belarus.org were no exception: they predicted an improvement in Belarus's position in the ITU rankings by 2015.\r\n\r\nAnother example is also telling: in 2010, opposition candidate Andrei Sannikov welcomed what he called\"the last year of the dictatorship,\"<\/i>Rejecting Lukashenko's regime as incapable of overcoming current problems. Following mass protests on December 19, 2010, he was arrested and sentenced to five years in prison in May 2011. He spent a total of approximately 16 months in prison. Sixteen years later, Lukashenko remains in power.\r\n\r\n

What happened?<\/H3>Reality took a different turn. Instead of emerging from isolation, Belarus sank deeper into authoritarianism after the 2020 elections, becoming more dependent on Russia than at any point since independence. Instead of integrating with the EU, the regime firmly entrenched itself in Moscow's orbit, deploying tactical nuclear weapons on its territory. The balancing act that had defined Belarusian policy for two decades collapsed.\r\n\r\nThe 2020 protests triggered the most brutal repression in the country's post-Soviet history. More than 200,000 people fled Belarus. Independent media were systematically destroyed. Civil society organizations were shut down or driven underground. An entire media ecosystem relocated to Poland, Lithuania, and Georgia, continuing its work from exile.\r\n\r\nThe promised economic modernization did not materialize as predicted. The \"holy number\" of $500 was derailed by the 2011 currency crisis. According to Belstat data for March 2026, the nominal accrued average salary is 2,975.8 rubles (approximately $1,069 at the current exchange rate), while the median, calculated for November 2025, is 2,081.7 rubles (approximately $748). Formally, the \"sacred number\" is doubled, but the context is radically different. The net median salary of an average worker (after deducting 13% income tax and 1% contribution to the Social Security Fund) is approximately $643. The Belarusian ruble has strengthened against the dollar by 20% in 2025, artificially inflating the dollar equivalent. The range across industries is enormous: from 6,957 rubles in the IT sector to 2,066 rubles in education. The Belarusian economy is now structurally dependent on the needs of Russia's militarized economy, and rising housing costs are largely due to the relocation of Russian citizens. When compared with the Baltic states and Poland, the gap remains stark, although domestic discourse compensates for this with arguments about the cost of food and utilities.\r\n\r\nThe information environment has evolved in directions almost no one foresaw. A 2006 article warned that\"The internet in Belarus will soon be under state control.\"<\/i><\/strong>At the time, it sounded alarmist. It turned out to be one of the most accurate forecasts in the entire corpus.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Scorecard<\/H3>Of the 157 forecasts evaluated, 84 were confirmed, 27 were partially confirmed, 39 were refuted, and 4 were inverted: the exact opposite occurred.\r\n\r\n\"\"\r\n\r\nThe confirmed forecasts paint a recognizable portrait. \"Lukashenko will declare victory in the 2010 elections\" (100\/100). \"The authorities will use all means to suppress the opposition rally\" (95\/100). \"Opposition candidates will not be elected due to an unfair electoral process\" (95\/100). \"Belarus will remain heavily dependent on Russian energy\" (95\/100). \"This law is another attack on media independence\" (95\/100, source: Reporters Without Borders). All describe the mechanics of authoritarian control. All took the regime's statements literally.\r\n\r\nThe partially confirmed forecasts point in the right direction, but are off in scale. \"Belarus will be forced to join Russia on Russia's terms\" (75\/100): dependence has increased, but formal annexation has not occurred. \"Rising gas prices will pose a serious challenge\" (70\/100): the 2011 crisis occurred, but the regime survived.\r\n\r\nThe disproven are united by a belief in the inevitability of change. \"2010 will be the last year of the dictatorship\" (5\/100). \"Belarus will enter the top 30 countries for business climate\" (5\/100). \"Lukashenko will extend a hand to the moderate opposition after international condemnation\" (5\/100). \"GDP will grow by 11-13%\" (15\/100, source: Jamestown Foundation).\r\n\r\nFour inverted: the exact opposite occurred. \"Lukashenko could make a radical turn toward the EU\" (5\/100). \"Belarus could follow the Ukrainian model\" (5\/100). \"Belarus should integrate into the global economy and move toward Europe\" (10\/100). \"Belarus is emerging from isolation and will continue dialogue with the EU\" (15\/100). All four touched on the European vector. Each predicted rapprochement. Each saw the opposite.\r\n\r\n

Domain Accuracy<\/H3>Accuracy varied dramatically across topics, and this pattern is a central finding of the study.\r\n\r\n\"\"\r\n
\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
Domain<\/th>\r\nAccuracy<\/th>\r\nCharacteristic<\/th>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/thead>\r\n
Media\/information<\/td>\r\n84.6%<\/td>\r\nPredictions about control over the Internet and the press<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Safety<\/td>\r\n82.4%<\/td>\r\nForecasts about the ability of security forces to suppress<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Civil society<\/td>\r\n72.8%<\/td>\r\nForecasts of pressure on organizations<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Technologies<\/td>\r\n69.5%<\/td>\r\nInfrastructure is correct, ratings are not.<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Social sphere<\/td>\r\n60.0%<\/td>\r\nLimited sample (3 forecasts)<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Geopolitics<\/td>\r\n54.5%<\/td>\r\nSystemic reassessment of the European vector<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Policy<\/td>\r\n54.4%<\/td>\r\nElections are correct, transit is not.<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Economy<\/td>\r\n46.2%<\/td>\r\nPropaganda was taken for a forecast<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n<\/div>\r\nThe closer to the mechanics of authoritarianism, the more accurate the forecast. The closer to expectations of change, the worse.\r\n\r\n

Who was wrong: source ranking<\/H3>Attribution of forecasts to sources through text extraction from the database revealed three analytical schools with varying degrees of accuracy.
\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
Source<\/th>\r\nAccuracy<\/th>\r\nForecasts<\/th>\r\nSchool<\/th>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/thead>\r\n
Belapan<\/td>\r\n91.0<\/td>\r\n3<\/td>\r\nDocumenting<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Reporters Without Borders (RSF)<\/td>\r\n88.3<\/td>\r\n12<\/td>\r\nDocumenting<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Reuters<\/td>\r\n86.5<\/td>\r\n2<\/td>\r\nDocumenting<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Charter97<\/td>\r\n72.5<\/td>\r\n4<\/td>\r\nOpposition<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
OSCE<\/td>\r\n57.5<\/td>\r\n4<\/td>\r\nDiplomatic<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
BBC<\/td>\r\n57.0<\/td>\r\n5<\/td>\r\nInstitutional<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Radio Liberty<\/td>\r\n49.7<\/td>\r\n6<\/td>\r\nTransitological<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Jamestown Foundation<\/td>\r\n18.3<\/td>\r\n3<\/td>\r\nTransitological<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n<\/div>The documentation school (RSF, Belapan, Reuters) recorded the regime's actions without interpreting its intentions through the lens of democratization. Accuracy: 86-91%.\r\n\r\nThe diplomatic-institutional school (OSCE, BBC) balanced between realism and normative expectations. Accuracy: 57-58%.\r\n\r\nThe transitional school (Jamestown Foundation, Radio Liberty) applied democratic transition models. Accuracy: 18-50%.\r\n\r\nA 70-point gap between RSF and the Jamestown Foundation: a single figure that explains twenty years of erroneous forecasting. The further the analyst departs from the facts and the closer to democratic transition theory, the worse the forecast.\r\n\r\n

What words predicted the error?<\/H3>A lexical analysis of 157 assessed forecasts (forecast text only, without retrospective explanations) revealed a strong correlation between word usage and accuracy.\r\n\r\nWords that appeared exclusively in failed forecasts: \"potential,\" \"become,\" \"top,\" \"world,\" \"protest,\" \"rise,\" \"must,\" \"reform,\" \"europe.\" Words that appeared exclusively in accurate forecasts: \"independent,\" \"media,\" \"elections,\" \"authorities,\" \"gas,\" \"presidential.\"\r\n\r\nWhen grouped into narrative clusters, the picture became even clearer. Authoritarian consolidation cluster (control, pressure, restrictions, surveillance, dependence): 6 accurate, 0 incorrect. 100% accuracy. European transition cluster (reform, integration, business, openness): 3 accurate, 4 incorrect. 43%.\r\n\r\nWordstability<\/strong>It appears only in accurate forecasts. When analysts used it to describe the institutional resilience of authoritarianism, they were right. The regime's propaganda about the \"island of stability\" uses the same word, but with the opposite meaning: not a diagnosis, but an advertising slogan. For all these years, state media have systematically exacerbated the problems of democratic countries and presented Belarus as an island of order in a \"sea of chaos.\" Today, this narrative is in remarkable contradiction with the growing rhetoric of ideological warfare: the regime simultaneously tells the population that Belarus is uniquely stable and that it is under siege, and that sanctions are an existential threat.\r\n\r\nThe language of democratic transition (\"transition,\" \"reform,\" \"democratization,\" \"opening,\" \"crossroads\") was found in erroneous forecasts 1.6 times more often. The more the analyst used this vocabulary, the worse the forecast. The more the language described\r\nthe system as it is, rather than as it should be, the closer it came to reality.\r\n\r\n

The paradox of confidence<\/H3>The hypothesis was that the most confident predictions would be the most erroneous. The data showed the opposite.
\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
Confidence level<\/th>\r\nAverage accuracy<\/th>\r\nForecasts<\/th>\r\nCatastrophic failures<\/th>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/thead>\r\n
High<\/td>\r\n78.7<\/td>\r\n60<\/td>\r\n2<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Average<\/td>\r\n47.5<\/td>\r\n34<\/td>\r\n7<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Cautious<\/td>\r\n44.3<\/td>\r\n10<\/td>\r\n1<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n<\/div>\r\n

High-confidence forecasts were confident in the mechanics of authoritarianism: \"Lukashenko will definitely win,\" \"the authorities will definitely suppress,\" \"the media will definitely be restricted.\" The authors were confident in negative outcomes, and they were right. Moderately confident and cautious forecasts were unsure about positive scenarios: \"Belarus could move toward the EU,\" \"reforms are possible.\" The authors were doubtful, and rightly so, but for the wrong reasons: they assumed both outcomes, while reality only allowed for one.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

Not overconfidence, but asymmetric certainty: analysts were correctly calibrated when they said what the regime would do, and uncalibrated when they said that the regime might change.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

What no one foresaw<\/H3>Of the 12 key developments that defined Belarus after 2013, we checked for each in a corpus of 715 forecasts. Ten turned out to be complete blind spots: not a single mention. A total repressive restructuring of the state. Emigration of over 200,000 people. Telegram as an infrastructure for protests and media in exile. The deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons. The use of migration as a weapon against the EU. The interception of a Ryanair flight. Loss of information sovereignty. A complete internet shutdown as a crisis management tool. The normalization of a state of emergency for years. The use of Belarusian territory to invade Ukraine.\r\n\r\nOnly mass protests were partially predicted (one mention: \"if hundreds of thousands come out, the security forces will go over to the side of the people,\" which also turned out to be an error). Mass emigration received one partial mention: \"continued repression could lead to mass emigration.\"\r\n\r\nWith a doubled sample size (715 instead of 349 forecasts), not a single new topic moved from a blind spot to a predictable one. This is not an artifact of the small sample size, but a structural property of analytical thinking from 2005 to 2013.\r\n\r\n

False thaws<\/H3>A time-lapse analysis revealed three periods when forecast optimism was high and forecast accuracy was low.\r\n\r\n2007:<\/strong>The gas conflict with Russia has sparked expectations of a turn toward the West. Optimism: 38.8%; accuracy: 42.5 out of 100.\r\n\r\n2009:<\/strong>The global financial crisis and the \"thaw\" in relations with the EU. Peak optimism: 47.8%, low pessimism: 15.9%. Analysts widely predicted a rapprochement with Europe. A year later, the mayhem in the square occurred.\r\n\r\n2010:<\/strong>Election cycle. 232 forecasts, more than any other year. Optimism 42.7%, accuracy 44.7 out of 100.\r\n\r\nEvery event interpreted as a \"breakthrough\" (the release of political prisoners, dialogue with the EU, the gas conflict, the economic crisis) generated a wave of liberalization forecasts. Almost all of them failed. After 2010, optimism fell to 28.1%, pessimism rose to 56.2%. Reality shattered these illusions, but only temporarily: in 2012-2013, optimism returned in the technological domain.\r\n\r\n

Why They Went Wrong: Five Systemic Biases<\/H3>\r\n\r\n\"\"\r\n\r\nBelief in the inevitability of democratization.<\/strong>Analysts considered authoritarianism a transitional phase, not a stable state. In 2005, it was predicted that \"Belarusian youth will be very active in the 2006 elections, and it will be a year of great change.\" A direct import of the Georgian and Ukrainian scenarios into a country where it didn't work.\r\n\r\nReassessing economic incentives.<\/strong>When faced with a choice between economic efficiency and political control, Lukashenko invariably chose control. This pattern can be traced through the 2011 currency crisis, the post-sanctions adaptation after 2020, and the current economic integration with Russia.\r\n\r\nThe illusion of multi-vectorality.<\/strong>It seemed as if Belarus could balance endlessly between Russia and the EU. One analyst in 2006 was closer to the truth than most: \"Despite some in the West's hopes, Belarus is not another domino ready to fall at the first election.\" This forecast received a score of 95.\r\n\r\nUnderestimating the adaptability of the regime.<\/strong>The focus was on weaknesses, overlooking potential. Political scientist Vladimir Podgol in 2007: \"The protest potential is too small to bring about political change, and propaganda will not allow it to grow.\" He proved right 13 years later.\r\n\r\nMistaking propaganda for a forecast.<\/strong>When the regime promised 11-13% GDP growth or entry into the top 30 countries for business climate, analysts took it as a plan. It was always propaganda.\r\n\r\n

Information space<\/H3>Belarusian state media have become part of the Russian information space. European institutions distinguish between foreign information manipulation (FIMI) and domestic information manipulation (DIMI). In Belarus, this distinction has become irreconcilable: narratives originating in Russia are coordinated through TASS and amplified through Belarusian channels, while the regime's own propaganda (the \"island of stability\" narrative) employs the same techniques. The two countries' information systems have merged to the point where distinctions are impossible. Sovereign information production within the country has effectively ceased to exist as a separate category.\r\n\r\n\"\"\r\n\r\nThe detection rate of information manipulation in Belarusian state media, according to FORESIGHT, is as follows: economics 94.8%, media\/information 81.2%, politics 67.7%, geopolitics 67.5%, civil society 66.6%, and technology 57.8%.\r\n\r\n

What follows from this?<\/H3>Pay close attention when the current regime talks about restrictions. Media control laws, requirements for re-registration of organizations, internet surveillance laws: when analysts took such statements literally, the accuracy rate exceeded 85%. When interpreted as a negotiating position, it fell below 50%.\r\n\r\nDon't trust the regime when it promises development. Economic, technological, and social targets turned out to be the least reliable forecasts.\r\n\r\nDon't project other people's experiences. Neither the Georgian, Ukrainian, nor Polish scenarios applied to Belarus. Every forecast based on analogy failed.\r\n\r\nEvaluate the stability of the regime, not the potential of the opposition. Forecasts about the strength of the opposition consistently achieved 20-30% accuracy. Forecasts about the strength of the regime, 85-95%.\r\n\r\nLook at the information environment. The degree of integration of Belarusian state media into the Russian information space is the most significant and least discussed indicator of the loss of sovereignty.\r\n\r\nIssues of succession are becoming increasingly pressing. The forecasting failures of the last twenty years provide grounds for caution.\r\n\r\n

What's next?<\/H3>\r\nCycles of false thaw. Each event interpreted as an \"opening\" generated a wave of predictions of liberalization. It's possible to measure which events generated the greatest surge of false optimism and how long it took for these predictions to be disproved.\r\n\r\n
\r\nWhat no one predicted. Why were 10 of the 12 key developments completely absent from the forecast? What exactly in the analytical thinking of 2005-2013 created blind spots?\r\n<\/blockquote>\r\n\r\nCan forecast vocabulary predict its accuracy? Preliminary data show that the authoritarian consolidation cluster yielded 100% accuracy, while the European transition cluster yielded 43%. If this pattern is confirmed across a larger sample, it allows for the construction of quantitative models to assess analytical quality.\r\n\r\nComparison with other countries. Are the same distortions repeated in forecasts for Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and Central Asian countries? If so, the Belarusian case becomes a critique of post-Soviet forecasting in general, and the methodology can be applied to any authoritarian context.\r\n\r\n\r\nAbout the data.<\/strong>Forecasts were extracted from archives spanning 2005-2011 and 1,346 publications, spanning 1996-2021, using the following pipeline: semantic filtering via pgvector (500 candidates from 21,511 documents), structured extraction via Claude Sonnet (715 forecasts), and evaluation using FORESIGHT platform data (1.9 million documents, 50 sources, spanning 2024-2026). All data and scripts are available upon request for research purposes.<\/small>"},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false,"raw":""},"author":1,"featured_media":5027,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_ru_post_content":"TL;DR<\/strong>\r\n\r\n\u0418\u0441\u043f\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0437\u0443\u044f \u043d\u0430\u0448\u0443 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0443\u044e \u043f\u043b\u0430\u0442\u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0443, \u0441\u043e\u0434\u0435\u0440\u0436\u0430\u0449\u0443\u044e \u0431\u043e\u043b\u0435\u0435 1,9 \u043c\u0438\u043b\u043b\u0438\u043e\u043d\u0430 \u0434\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u043e\u0432 \u0438\u0437 \u0431\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0445 \u0433\u043e\u0441\u0443\u0434\u0430\u0440\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0438 \u043d\u0435\u0437\u0430\u0432\u0438\u0441\u0438\u043c\u044b\u0445 \u043c\u0435\u0434\u0438\u0430, \u043c\u044b \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0435\u043b\u0438 \u0441\u0438\u0441\u0442\u0435\u043c\u0430\u0442\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0443\u044e \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0435\u0440\u043a\u0443 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u043e\u0432, \u043a\u043e\u0442\u043e\u0440\u044b\u0435 \u0434\u0435\u043b\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0441\u044c \u043e \u0431\u0443\u0434\u0443\u0449\u0435\u043c \u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0438 \u0432 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0438\u043e\u0434 \u0441 2005 \u043f\u043e 2013 \u0433\u043e\u0434.\r\n\r\n\u0414\u043b\u044f \u044d\u0442\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437\u0430 \u0431\u044b\u043b\u0438 \u0438\u0441\u043f\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0437\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u044b \u0434\u0432\u0430 \u0438\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0445 \u0430\u0440\u0445\u0438\u0432\u0430: \u043a\u043e\u043b\u043b\u0435\u043a\u0446\u0438\u044f \u0438\u0437 \u0431\u043e\u043b\u0435\u0435 \u0447\u0435\u043c 20 000 \u0430\u043d\u0433\u043b\u043e\u044f\u0437\u044b\u0447\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0442\u0435\u0439 \u043e \u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0438 \u0437\u0430 2005-2011 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u044b, \u0438 1 346 \u043f\u0443\u0431\u043b\u0438\u043a\u0430\u0446\u0438\u0439 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0446\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0440\u0430, \u043e\u0445\u0432\u0430\u0442\u044b\u0432\u0430\u044e\u0449\u0438\u0445 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0438\u043e\u0434 \u0441 1996 \u043f\u043e 2021 \u0433\u043e\u0434. \u041c\u044b \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0441\u043a\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0438 21 511 \u0434\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u043e\u0432 \u0441 \u043f\u043e\u043c\u043e\u0449\u044c\u044e \u0441\u0435\u043c\u0430\u043d\u0442\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043f\u043e\u0438\u0441\u043a\u0430, \u0438\u0437\u0432\u043b\u0435\u043a\u043b\u0438 715 \u043a\u043e\u043d\u043a\u0440\u0435\u0442\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0445 \u0443\u0442\u0432\u0435\u0440\u0436\u0434\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0439 \u0438 \u043e\u0446\u0435\u043d\u0438\u043b\u0438 157 \u043d\u0430\u0438\u0431\u043e\u043b\u0435\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0435\u0440\u044f\u0435\u043c\u044b\u0445 \u0438\u0437 \u043d\u0438\u0445 \u043f\u043e \u0442\u0435\u043a\u0443\u0449\u0435\u0439 \u0441\u0438\u0442\u0443\u0430\u0446\u0438\u0438.\r\n\r\n\u0420\u0435\u0437\u0443\u043b\u044c\u0442\u0430\u0442: \u043e\u0431\u0449\u0430\u044f \u0442\u043e\u0447\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c 65,0<\/strong> \u0438\u0437 100<\/strong>.\r\n\r\n

\u0427\u0442\u043e \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0438<\/H3>\r\n\u0412 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u044b \u043c\u0435\u0436\u0434\u0443 \u0441\u043f\u043e\u0440\u043d\u044b\u043c\u0438 \u0432\u044b\u0431\u043e\u0440\u0430\u043c\u0438 2006 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u0438 \u043a\u0430\u0442\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0440\u043e\u0444\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0438\u043c \u0440\u0430\u0437\u0433\u0440\u043e\u043c\u043e\u043c \u0434\u0435\u043a\u0430\u0431\u0440\u044f 2010-\u0433\u043e \u0441\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0438 \u0437\u0430\u043f\u0430\u0434\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u043a\u043e\u0432 \u0441\u043b\u043e\u0436\u0438\u043b\u0441\u044f \u0445\u0430\u0440\u0430\u043a\u0442\u0435\u0440\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u043a\u043e\u043d\u0441\u0435\u043d\u0441\u0443\u0441. \u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u044c \u043d\u0430\u043a\u043e\u043d\u0435\u0446 \u0433\u043e\u0442\u043e\u0432\u0430 \u043a \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0430\u043c. \u041b\u0443\u043a\u0430\u0448\u0435\u043d\u043a\u043e, \u043d\u0430\u0445\u043e\u0434\u044f\u0449\u0438\u0439\u0441\u044f \u043f\u043e\u0434 \u044d\u043a\u043e\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0438\u043c \u0434\u0430\u0432\u043b\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435\u043c \u0438 \u0432 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0438\u043e\u0434\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u043e\u043c \u043a\u043e\u043d\u0444\u043b\u0438\u043a\u0442\u0435 \u0441 \u041c\u043e\u0441\u043a\u0432\u043e\u0439, \u0431\u0443\u0434\u0435\u0442 \u0432\u044b\u043d\u0443\u0436\u0434\u0435\u043d \u043b\u0438\u0431\u0435\u0440\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437\u043e\u0432\u0430\u0442\u044c\u0441\u044f. \"\u0412\u043e\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0447\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u043f\u0430\u0440\u0442\u043d\u0451\u0440\u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e\" \u0415\u0421 \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u043b\u0430\u0433\u0430\u0435\u0442 \u0441\u0442\u0438\u043c\u0443\u043b\u044b. \u041d\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0435 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\u043c\u0430\u0441\u0448\u0442\u0430\u0431\u0435. \"\u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u044c \u0431\u0443\u0434\u0435\u0442 \u0432\u044b\u043d\u0443\u0436\u0434\u0435\u043d\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0441\u043e\u0435\u0434\u0438\u043d\u0438\u0442\u044c\u0441\u044f \u043a \u0420\u043e\u0441\u0441\u0438\u0438 \u043d\u0430 \u0440\u043e\u0441\u0441\u0438\u0439\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0445 \u0443\u0441\u043b\u043e\u0432\u0438\u044f\u0445\" (75\/100): \u0437\u0430\u0432\u0438\u0441\u0438\u043c\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c \u0443\u0441\u0438\u043b\u0438\u043b\u0430\u0441\u044c, \u043d\u043e \u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430\u044f \u0430\u043d\u043d\u0435\u043a\u0441\u0438\u044f \u043d\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0438\u0437\u043e\u0448\u043b\u0430. \"\u0420\u043e\u0441\u0442 \u0446\u0435\u043d \u043d\u0430 \u0433\u0430\u0437 \u0441\u043e\u0437\u0434\u0430\u0441\u0442 \u0441\u0435\u0440\u044c\u0451\u0437\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u0432\u044b\u0437\u043e\u0432\" (70\/100): \u043a\u0440\u0438\u0437\u0438\u0441 2011 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u0441\u043b\u0443\u0447\u0438\u043b\u0441\u044f, \u043d\u043e \u0440\u0435\u0436\u0438\u043c \u0432\u044b\u0436\u0438\u043b.\r\n\r\n\u041e\u043f\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0435\u0440\u0433\u043d\u0443\u0442\u044b\u0435 \u043e\u0431\u044a\u0435\u0434\u0438\u043d\u044f\u0435\u0442 \u0432\u0435\u0440\u0430 \u0432 \u043d\u0435\u0438\u0437\u0431\u0435\u0436\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u043c\u0435\u043d. \"2010 \u0433\u043e\u0434 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u043d\u0435\u0442 \u043f\u043e\u0441\u043b\u0435\u0434\u043d\u0438\u043c \u0433\u043e\u0434\u043e\u043c \u0434\u0438\u043a\u0442\u0430\u0442\u0443\u0440\u044b\" (5\/100). \"\u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u044c \u0432\u043e\u0439\u0434\u0451\u0442 \u0432 \u0442\u043e\u043f-30 \u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d \u043f\u043e \u0434\u0435\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043e\u043c\u0443 \u043a\u043b\u0438\u043c\u0430\u0442\u0443\" (5\/100). \"\u041b\u0443\u043a\u0430\u0448\u0435\u043d\u043a\u043e \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0442\u044f\u043d\u0435\u0442 \u0440\u0443\u043a\u0443 \u0443\u043c\u0435\u0440\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u043e\u043f\u043f\u043e\u0437\u0438\u0446\u0438\u0438 \u043f\u043e\u0441\u043b\u0435 \u043c\u0435\u0436\u0434\u0443\u043d\u0430\u0440\u043e\u0434\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043e\u0441\u0443\u0436\u0434\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f\" (5\/100). \"\u0412\u0412\u041f \u0432\u044b\u0440\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0435\u0442 \u043d\u0430 11-13%\" (15\/100, \u0438\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0447\u043d\u0438\u043a: Jamestown Foundation).\r\n\r\n\u0427\u0435\u0442\u044b\u0440\u0435 \u0438\u043d\u0432\u0435\u0440\u0442\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445: \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0438\u0437\u043e\u0448\u043b\u043e \u043f\u0440\u044f\u043c\u043e \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0442\u0438\u0432\u043e\u043f\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0436\u043d\u043e\u0435. \"\u041b\u0443\u043a\u0430\u0448\u0435\u043d\u043a\u043e \u043c\u043e\u0433 \u0431\u044b \u0440\u0430\u0434\u0438\u043a\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e \u043f\u043e\u0432\u0435\u0440\u043d\u0443\u0442\u044c \u043a \u0415\u0421\" (5\/100). \"\u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u044c \u043c\u043e\u0436\u0435\u0442 \u0441\u043b\u0435\u0434\u043e\u0432\u0430\u0442\u044c \u0443\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0438\u043d\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0439 \u043c\u043e\u0434\u0435\u043b\u0438\" (5\/100). \"\u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u044c \u0434\u043e\u043b\u0436\u043d\u0430 \u0438\u043d\u0442\u0435\u0433\u0440\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u0442\u044c\u0441\u044f \u0432 \u043c\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0443\u044e \u044d\u043a\u043e\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0438\u043a\u0443 \u0438 \u0434\u0432\u0438\u0433\u0430\u0442\u044c\u0441\u044f \u043a \u0415\u0432\u0440\u043e\u043f\u0435\" (10\/100). \"\u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u044c \u0432\u044b\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0438\u0442 \u0438\u0437 \u0438\u0437\u043e\u043b\u044f\u0446\u0438\u0438 \u0438 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0434\u043e\u043b\u0436\u0438\u0442 \u0434\u0438\u0430\u043b\u043e\u0433 \u0441 \u0415\u0421\" (15\/100). \u0412\u0441\u0435 \u0447\u0435\u0442\u044b\u0440\u0435 \u043a\u0430\u0441\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0441\u044c \u0435\u0432\u0440\u043e\u043f\u0435\u0439\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0432\u0435\u043a\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0430. \u041a\u0430\u0436\u0434\u044b\u0439 \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0441\u043a\u0430\u0437\u044b\u0432\u0430\u043b \u0441\u0431\u043b\u0438\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435. \u041a\u0430\u0436\u0434\u044b\u0439 \u0443\u0432\u0438\u0434\u0435\u043b \u043e\u0431\u0440\u0430\u0442\u043d\u043e\u0435.\r\n\r\n

\u0422\u043e\u0447\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c \u043f\u043e \u0434\u043e\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0430\u043c<\/H3>\r\n\u0422\u043e\u0447\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c \u0440\u0430\u0434\u0438\u043a\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e \u0440\u0430\u0437\u043b\u0438\u0447\u0430\u043b\u0430\u0441\u044c \u043f\u043e \u0442\u0435\u043c\u0430\u043c, \u0438 \u044d\u0442\u0430 \u0437\u0430\u043a\u043e\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0435\u0440\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c \u044f\u0432\u043b\u044f\u0435\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0446\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u043c \u0440\u0435\u0437\u0443\u043b\u044c\u0442\u0430\u0442\u043e\u043c \u0438\u0441\u0441\u043b\u0435\u0434\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u044f.\r\n\r\n\"\"\r\n
\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\u0414\u043e\u043c\u0435\u043d<\/th>\r\n\u0422\u043e\u0447\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c<\/th>\r\n\u0425\u0430\u0440\u0430\u043a\u0442\u0435\u0440\u0438\u0441\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0430<\/th>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/thead>\r\n
\u041c\u0435\u0434\u0438\u0430\/\u0438\u043d\u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0446\u0438\u044f<\/td>\r\n84,6%<\/td>\r\n\u041f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u044b \u043e \u043a\u043e\u043d\u0442\u0440\u043e\u043b\u0435 \u043d\u0430\u0434 \u0438\u043d\u0442\u0435\u0440\u043d\u0435\u0442\u043e\u043c \u0438 \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0441\u0441\u043e\u0439<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
\u0411\u0435\u0437\u043e\u043f\u0430\u0441\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c<\/td>\r\n82,4%<\/td>\r\n\u041f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u044b \u043e \u0441\u043f\u043e\u0441\u043e\u0431\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u0441\u0438\u043b\u043e\u0432\u0438\u043a\u043e\u0432 \u043a \u043f\u043e\u0434\u0430\u0432\u043b\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044e<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
\u0413\u0440\u0430\u0436\u0434\u0430\u043d\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0435 \u043e\u0431\u0449\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e<\/td>\r\n72,8%<\/td>\r\n\u041f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u044b \u043e \u0434\u0430\u0432\u043b\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0438 \u043d\u0430 \u043e\u0440\u0433\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0437\u0430\u0446\u0438\u0438<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
\u0422\u0435\u0445\u043d\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0438<\/td>\r\n69,5%<\/td>\r\n\u0418\u043d\u0444\u0440\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0443\u043a\u0442\u0443\u0440\u0430 \u0432\u0435\u0440\u043d\u043e, \u0440\u0435\u0439\u0442\u0438\u043d\u0433\u0438 \u043d\u0435\u0442<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
\u0421\u043e\u0446\u0438\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430\u044f \u0441\u0444\u0435\u0440\u0430<\/td>\r\n60,0%<\/td>\r\n\u041e\u0433\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0447\u0435\u043d\u043d\u0430\u044f \u0432\u044b\u0431\u043e\u0440\u043a\u0430 (3 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0430)<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
\u0413\u0435\u043e\u043f\u043e\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0430<\/td>\r\n54,5%<\/td>\r\n\u0421\u0438\u0441\u0442\u0435\u043c\u043d\u0430\u044f \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u043e\u0446\u0435\u043d\u043a\u0430 \u0435\u0432\u0440\u043e\u043f\u0435\u0439\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0432\u0435\u043a\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0430<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
\u041f\u043e\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0430<\/td>\r\n54,4%<\/td>\r\n\u0412\u044b\u0431\u043e\u0440\u044b \u0432\u0435\u0440\u043d\u043e, \u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0437\u0438\u0442 \u043d\u0435\u0442<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
\u042d\u043a\u043e\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0438\u043a\u0430<\/td>\r\n46,2%<\/td>\r\n\u041f\u0440\u043e\u043f\u0430\u0433\u0430\u043d\u0434\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u0438\u043d\u0438\u043c\u0430\u043b\u0430\u0441\u044c \u0437\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n<\/div>\r\n\u0427\u0435\u043c \u0431\u043b\u0438\u0436\u0435 \u043a \u043c\u0435\u0445\u0430\u043d\u0438\u043a\u0435 \u0430\u0432\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0438\u0442\u0430\u0440\u0438\u0437\u043c\u0430, \u0442\u0435\u043c \u0442\u043e\u0447\u043d\u0435\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437. \u0427\u0435\u043c \u0431\u043b\u0438\u0436\u0435 \u043a \u043e\u0436\u0438\u0434\u0430\u043d\u0438\u044f\u043c \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u043c\u0435\u043d, \u0442\u0435\u043c \u0445\u0443\u0436\u0435.\r\n\r\n

\u041a\u0442\u043e \u043e\u0448\u0438\u0431\u0430\u043b\u0441\u044f: \u0440\u0435\u0439\u0442\u0438\u043d\u0433 \u0438\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0447\u043d\u0438\u043a\u043e\u0432<\/H3>\r\n\u0410\u0442\u0440\u0438\u0431\u0443\u0446\u0438\u044f \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u043e\u0432 \u043a \u0438\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0447\u043d\u0438\u043a\u0430\u043c \u0447\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0437 \u0438\u0437\u0432\u043b\u0435\u0447\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0438\u0437 \u0442\u0435\u043a\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0432 \u0431\u0430\u0437\u044b \u0434\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0432\u044b\u044f\u0432\u0438\u043b\u0430 \u0442\u0440\u0438 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0435 \u0448\u043a\u043e\u043b\u044b \u0441 \u0440\u0430\u0437\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u0442\u043e\u0447\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c\u044e.\r\n
\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\u0418\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0447\u043d\u0438\u043a<\/th>\r\n\u0422\u043e\u0447\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c<\/th>\r\n\u041f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u043e\u0432<\/th>\r\n\u0428\u043a\u043e\u043b\u0430<\/th>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/thead>\r\n
Belapan<\/td>\r\n91,0<\/td>\r\n3<\/td>\r\n\u0414\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0438\u0440\u0443\u044e\u0449\u0430\u044f<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
\u0420\u0435\u043f\u043e\u0440\u0442\u0451\u0440\u044b \u0431\u0435\u0437 \u0433\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0446 (RSF)<\/td>\r\n88,3<\/td>\r\n12<\/td>\r\n\u0414\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0438\u0440\u0443\u044e\u0449\u0430\u044f<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Reuters<\/td>\r\n86,5<\/td>\r\n2<\/td>\r\n\u0414\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0438\u0440\u0443\u044e\u0449\u0430\u044f<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Charter97<\/td>\r\n72,5<\/td>\r\n4<\/td>\r\n\u041e\u043f\u043f\u043e\u0437\u0438\u0446\u0438\u043e\u043d\u043d\u0430\u044f<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
\u041e\u0411\u0421\u0415<\/td>\r\n57,5<\/td>\r\n4<\/td>\r\n\u0414\u0438\u043f\u043b\u043e\u043c\u0430\u0442\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0430\u044f<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
\u0411\u0438-\u0411\u0438-\u0421\u0438<\/td>\r\n57,0<\/td>\r\n5<\/td>\r\n\u0418\u043d\u0441\u0442\u0438\u0442\u0443\u0446\u0438\u043e\u043d\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430\u044f<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
\u0420\u0430\u0434\u0438\u043e \u0421\u0432\u043e\u0431\u043e\u0434\u0430<\/td>\r\n49,7<\/td>\r\n6<\/td>\r\n\u0422\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0437\u0438\u0442\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0430\u044f<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Jamestown Foundation<\/td>\r\n18,3<\/td>\r\n3<\/td>\r\n\u0422\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0437\u0438\u0442\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0430\u044f<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n<\/div>\r\n\u0414\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0438\u0440\u0443\u044e\u0449\u0430\u044f \u0448\u043a\u043e\u043b\u0430 (RSF, Belapan, Reuters) \u0444\u0438\u043a\u0441\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0430, \u0447\u0442\u043e \u0440\u0435\u0436\u0438\u043c \u0434\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0435\u0442, \u043d\u0435 \u0438\u043d\u0442\u0435\u0440\u043f\u0440\u0435\u0442\u0438\u0440\u0443\u044f \u0435\u0433\u043e \u043d\u0430\u043c\u0435\u0440\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f \u0447\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0437 \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0437\u043c\u0443 \u0434\u0435\u043c\u043e\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0442\u0438\u0437\u0430\u0446\u0438\u0438. \u0422\u043e\u0447\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c 86-91%.\r\n\r\n\u0414\u0438\u043f\u043b\u043e\u043c\u0430\u0442\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u043e-\u0438\u043d\u0441\u0442\u0438\u0442\u0443\u0446\u0438\u043e\u043d\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430\u044f \u0448\u043a\u043e\u043b\u0430 (\u041e\u0411\u0421\u0415, \u0411\u0438-\u0411\u0438-\u0421\u0438) \u0431\u0430\u043b\u0430\u043d\u0441\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0430 \u043c\u0435\u0436\u0434\u0443 \u0440\u0435\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437\u043c\u043e\u043c \u0438 \u043d\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0442\u0438\u0432\u043d\u044b\u043c\u0438 \u043e\u0436\u0438\u0434\u0430\u043d\u0438\u044f\u043c\u0438. \u0422\u043e\u0447\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c 57-58%.\r\n\r\n\u0422\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0437\u0438\u0442\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0430\u044f \u0448\u043a\u043e\u043b\u0430 (Jamestown Foundation, \u0420\u0430\u0434\u0438\u043e \u0421\u0432\u043e\u0431\u043e\u0434\u0430) \u043f\u0440\u0438\u043c\u0435\u043d\u044f\u043b\u0430 \u043c\u043e\u0434\u0435\u043b\u0438 \u0434\u0435\u043c\u043e\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0442\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0430. \u0422\u043e\u0447\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c 18-50%.\r\n\r\n\u0420\u0430\u0437\u0440\u044b\u0432 \u0432 70 \u043f\u0443\u043d\u043a\u0442\u043e\u0432 \u043c\u0435\u0436\u0434\u0443 RSF \u0438 Jamestown Foundation: \u043e\u0434\u043d\u0430 \u0446\u0438\u0444\u0440\u0430, \u043a\u043e\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0430\u044f \u043e\u0431\u044a\u044f\u0441\u043d\u044f\u0435\u0442 \u0434\u0432\u0430\u0434\u0446\u0430\u0442\u044c \u043b\u0435\u0442 \u043e\u0448\u0438\u0431\u043e\u0447\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u044f. \u0427\u0435\u043c \u0434\u0430\u043b\u044c\u0448\u0435 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u043a \u043e\u0442 \u0444\u0430\u043a\u0442\u043e\u0432 \u0438 \u0431\u043b\u0438\u0436\u0435 \u043a \u0442\u0435\u043e\u0440\u0438\u0438 \u0434\u0435\u043c\u043e\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0442\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0430, \u0442\u0435\u043c \u0445\u0443\u0436\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437.\r\n\r\n

\u041a\u0430\u043a\u0438\u0435 \u0441\u043b\u043e\u0432\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0441\u043a\u0430\u0437\u044b\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0438 \u043e\u0448\u0438\u0431\u043a\u0443<\/H3>\r\n\u041b\u0435\u043a\u0441\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0439 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437 157 \u043e\u0446\u0435\u043d\u0451\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u043e\u0432 (\u0442\u043e\u043b\u044c\u043a\u043e \u0442\u0435\u043a\u0441\u0442 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0430, \u0431\u0435\u0437 \u0440\u0435\u0442\u0440\u043e\u0441\u043f\u0435\u043a\u0442\u0438\u0432\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u043e\u0431\u044a\u044f\u0441\u043d\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0439) \u0432\u044b\u044f\u0432\u0438\u043b \u0443\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0439\u0447\u0438\u0432\u0443\u044e \u043a\u043e\u0440\u0440\u0435\u043b\u044f\u0446\u0438\u044e \u043c\u0435\u0436\u0434\u0443 \u0441\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0443\u043f\u043e\u0442\u0440\u0435\u0431\u043b\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435\u043c \u0438 \u0442\u043e\u0447\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c\u044e.\r\n\r\n\u0421\u043b\u043e\u0432\u0430, \u043a\u043e\u0442\u043e\u0440\u044b\u0435 \u0432\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0435\u0447\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0441\u044c \u0438\u0441\u043a\u043b\u044e\u0447\u0438\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e \u0432 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0430\u0445: \"potential,\" \"become,\" \"top,\" \"world,\" \"protest,\" \"rise,\" \"must,\" \"reform,\" \"europe.\" \u0421\u043b\u043e\u0432\u0430, \u0432\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0435\u0447\u0430\u0432\u0448\u0438\u0435\u0441\u044f \u0438\u0441\u043a\u043b\u044e\u0447\u0438\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e \u0432 \u0442\u043e\u0447\u043d\u044b\u0445: \"independent,\" \"media,\" \"elections,\" \"authorities,\" \"gas,\" \"presidential.\"\r\n\r\n\u041f\u0440\u0438 \u0433\u0440\u0443\u043f\u043f\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u043a\u0435 \u0432 \u043d\u0430\u0440\u0440\u0430\u0442\u0438\u0432\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u043a\u043b\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0435\u0440\u044b \u043a\u0430\u0440\u0442\u0438\u043d\u0430 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u043b\u0430 \u0435\u0449\u0451 \u044f\u0441\u043d\u0435\u0435. \u041a\u043b\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0435\u0440 \u0430\u0432\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0438\u0442\u0430\u0440\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u043a\u043e\u043d\u0441\u043e\u043b\u0438\u0434\u0430\u0446\u0438\u0438 (\u043a\u043e\u043d\u0442\u0440\u043e\u043b\u044c, \u0434\u0430\u0432\u043b\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435, \u043e\u0433\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0447\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f, \u0441\u043b\u0435\u0436\u043a\u0430, \u0437\u0430\u0432\u0438\u0441\u0438\u043c\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c): 6 \u0442\u043e\u0447\u043d\u044b\u0445, 0 \u043e\u0448\u0438\u0431\u043e\u0447\u043d\u044b\u0445. 100% \u0442\u043e\u0447\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438. \u041a\u043b\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0435\u0440 \u0435\u0432\u0440\u043e\u043f\u0435\u0439\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0430 (\u0440\u0435\u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u044b, \u0438\u043d\u0442\u0435\u0433\u0440\u0430\u0446\u0438\u044f, \u0431\u0438\u0437\u043d\u0435\u0441, \u043e\u0442\u043a\u0440\u044b\u0442\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c): 3 \u0442\u043e\u0447\u043d\u044b\u0445, 4 \u043e\u0448\u0438\u0431\u043e\u0447\u043d\u044b\u0445. 43%.\r\n\r\n\u0421\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043e \"stability\"<\/strong> \u043f\u043e\u044f\u0432\u043b\u044f\u0435\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0442\u043e\u043b\u044c\u043a\u043e \u0432 \u0442\u043e\u0447\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0430\u0445. \u041a\u043e\u0433\u0434\u0430 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0438 \u0438\u0441\u043f\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0437\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0438 \u0435\u0433\u043e \u0434\u043b\u044f \u043e\u043f\u0438\u0441\u0430\u043d\u0438\u044f \u0438\u043d\u0441\u0442\u0438\u0442\u0443\u0446\u0438\u043e\u043d\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u0443\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0439\u0447\u0438\u0432\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u0430\u0432\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0438\u0442\u0430\u0440\u0438\u0437\u043c\u0430, \u043e\u043d\u0438 \u0431\u044b\u043b\u0438 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0432\u044b. \u0420\u0435\u0436\u0438\u043c\u043d\u0430\u044f \u043f\u0440\u043e\u043f\u0430\u0433\u0430\u043d\u0434\u0430 \"\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0440\u043e\u0432\u043a\u0430 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0431\u0438\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438\" \u0438\u0441\u043f\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0437\u0443\u0435\u0442 \u0442\u043e \u0436\u0435 \u0441\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043e, \u043d\u043e \u0441 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0442\u0438\u0432\u043e\u043f\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0436\u043d\u044b\u043c \u0441\u043e\u0434\u0435\u0440\u0436\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0435\u043c: \u043d\u0435 \u0434\u0438\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437, \u0430 \u0440\u0435\u043a\u043b\u0430\u043c\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u0441\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0430\u043d. \u0413\u043e\u0441\u0443\u0434\u0430\u0440\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u043c\u0435\u0434\u0438\u0430 \u0432\u0441\u0435 \u044d\u0442\u0438 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u044b \u0441\u0438\u0441\u0442\u0435\u043c\u0430\u0442\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0438 \u0443\u0441\u0438\u043b\u0438\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0438 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0431\u043b\u0435\u043c\u044b \u0434\u0435\u043c\u043e\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0442\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0445 \u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d \u0438 \u043f\u043e\u0434\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0438 \u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u044c \u043a\u0430\u043a \u043e\u0441\u0442\u0440\u043e\u0432\u043e\u043a \u043f\u043e\u0440\u044f\u0434\u043a\u0430 \u0432 \"\u043c\u043e\u0440\u0435 \u0445\u0430\u043e\u0441\u0430.\" \u0421\u0435\u0433\u043e\u0434\u043d\u044f \u044d\u0442\u043e\u0442 \u043d\u0430\u0440\u0440\u0430\u0442\u0438\u0432 \u0432\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0438\u0442 \u0432 \u043f\u0440\u0438\u043c\u0435\u0447\u0430\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0442\u0438\u0432\u043e\u0440\u0435\u0447\u0438\u0435 \u0441 \u043d\u0430\u0440\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0430\u044e\u0449\u0435\u0439 \u0440\u0438\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0438\u043a\u043e\u0439 \u043e\u0431 \u0438\u0434\u0435\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0439 \u0432\u043e\u0439\u043d\u0435: \u0440\u0435\u0436\u0438\u043c \u043e\u0434\u043d\u043e\u0432\u0440\u0435\u043c\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e \u0441\u043e\u043e\u0431\u0449\u0430\u0435\u0442 \u043d\u0430\u0441\u0435\u043b\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044e, \u0447\u0442\u043e \u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u044c \u0443\u043d\u0438\u043a\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0431\u0438\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430 \u0438 \u0447\u0442\u043e \u043e\u043d\u0430 \u043d\u0430\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0438\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0432 \u043e\u0441\u0430\u0434\u0435, \u0430 \u0441\u0430\u043d\u043a\u0446\u0438\u0438, \u044d\u0442\u043e \u044d\u043a\u0437\u0438\u0441\u0442\u0435\u043d\u0446\u0438\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430\u044f \u0443\u0433\u0440\u043e\u0437\u0430.\r\n\r\n\u042f\u0437\u044b\u043a \u0434\u0435\u043c\u043e\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0442\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0430 (\"transition,\" \"reform,\" \"democratization,\" \"opening,\" \"crossroads\") \u0432\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0435\u0447\u0430\u043b\u0441\u044f \u0432 \u043e\u0448\u0438\u0431\u043e\u0447\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0430\u0445 \u0432 1,6 \u0440\u0430\u0437\u0430 \u0447\u0430\u0449\u0435. \u0427\u0435\u043c \u0431\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0448\u0435 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u043a \u0438\u0441\u043f\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0437\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043b \u044d\u0442\u043e\u0442 \u043b\u0435\u043a\u0441\u0438\u043a\u043e\u043d, \u0442\u0435\u043c \u0445\u0443\u0436\u0435 \u0431\u044b\u043b \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437. \u0427\u0435\u043c \u0431\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0448\u0435 \u044f\u0437\u044b\u043a \u043e\u043f\u0438\u0441\u044b\u0432\u0430\u043b\r\n\u0441\u0438\u0441\u0442\u0435\u043c\u0443 \u043a\u0430\u043a \u043e\u043d\u0430 \u0435\u0441\u0442\u044c, \u0430 \u043d\u0435 \u043a\u0430\u043a \u043e\u043d\u0430 \u0434\u043e\u043b\u0436\u043d\u0430 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0442\u044c, \u0442\u0435\u043c \u0431\u043b\u0438\u0436\u0435 \u043a \u0440\u0435\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438.\r\n\r\n

\u041f\u0430\u0440\u0430\u0434\u043e\u043a\u0441 \u0443\u0432\u0435\u0440\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438<\/H3>\r\n\u0413\u0438\u043f\u043e\u0442\u0435\u0437\u0430 \u0431\u044b\u043b\u0430: \u043d\u0430\u0438\u0431\u043e\u043b\u0435\u0435 \u0443\u0432\u0435\u0440\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u044b \u043e\u043a\u0430\u0436\u0443\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0441\u0430\u043c\u044b\u043c\u0438 \u043e\u0448\u0438\u0431\u043e\u0447\u043d\u044b\u043c\u0438. \u0414\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u043f\u043e\u043a\u0430\u0437\u0430\u043b\u0438 \u043e\u0431\u0440\u0430\u0442\u043d\u043e\u0435.\r\n
\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
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\u0412\u044b\u0441\u043e\u043a\u0430\u044f<\/td>\r\n78,7<\/td>\r\n60<\/td>\r\n2<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
\u0421\u0440\u0435\u0434\u043d\u044f\u044f<\/td>\r\n47,5<\/td>\r\n34<\/td>\r\n7<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
\u041e\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0440\u043e\u0436\u043d\u0430\u044f<\/td>\r\n44,3<\/td>\r\n10<\/td>\r\n1<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n<\/div>\r\n

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\u0447\u0442\u043e \"\u0431\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0441\u043a\u0430\u044f \u043c\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0434\u0451\u0436\u044c \u0431\u0443\u0434\u0435\u0442 \u043e\u0447\u0435\u043d\u044c \u0430\u043a\u0442\u0438\u0432\u043d\u0430 \u043d\u0430 \u0432\u044b\u0431\u043e\u0440\u0430\u0445 2006 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u0438 \u044d\u0442\u043e \u0431\u0443\u0434\u0435\u0442 \u0433\u043e\u0434 \u0432\u0435\u043b\u0438\u043a\u0438\u0445 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u043c\u0435\u043d.\" \u041f\u0440\u044f\u043c\u043e\u0439 \u0438\u043c\u043f\u043e\u0440\u0442 \u0433\u0440\u0443\u0437\u0438\u043d\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0438 \u0443\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0438\u043d\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0441\u0446\u0435\u043d\u0430\u0440\u0438\u044f \u0432 \u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0443, \u0433\u0434\u0435 \u043e\u043d \u043d\u0435 \u0440\u0430\u0431\u043e\u0442\u0430\u043b.\r\n\r\n\u041f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u043e\u0446\u0435\u043d\u043a\u0430 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\u043a\u0440\u0438\u0437\u0438\u0441 2011 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430, \u043f\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0441\u0430\u043d\u043a\u0446\u0438\u043e\u043d\u043d\u0443\u044e \u0430\u0434\u0430\u043f\u0442\u0430\u0446\u0438\u044e \u043f\u043e\u0441\u043b\u0435 2020 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u0438 \u0442\u0435\u043a\u0443\u0449\u0443\u044e \u044d\u043a\u043e\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0443\u044e \u0438\u043d\u0442\u0435\u0433\u0440\u0430\u0446\u0438\u044e \u0441 \u0420\u043e\u0441\u0441\u0438\u0435\u0439.\r\n\r\n\u0418\u043b\u043b\u044e\u0437\u0438\u044f \u043c\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e\u0432\u0435\u043a\u0442\u043e\u0440\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438.<\/strong> \u041a\u0430\u0437\u0430\u043b\u043e\u0441\u044c, \u0447\u0442\u043e \u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u044c \u043c\u043e\u0436\u0435\u0442 \u0431\u0435\u0441\u043a\u043e\u043d\u0435\u0447\u043d\u043e \u0431\u0430\u043b\u0430\u043d\u0441\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u0442\u044c \u043c\u0435\u0436\u0434\u0443 \u0420\u043e\u0441\u0441\u0438\u0435\u0439 \u0438 \u0415\u0421. \u041e\u0434\u0438\u043d \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u043a 2006 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u043e\u043a\u0430\u0437\u0430\u043b\u0441\u044f \u0431\u043b\u0438\u0436\u0435 \u043a \u0438\u0441\u0442\u0438\u043d\u0435, \u0447\u0435\u043c \u0431\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0448\u0438\u043d\u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e: \"\u0427\u0442\u043e \u0431\u044b \u043d\u0438 \u043d\u0430\u0434\u0435\u044f\u043b\u0438\u0441\u044c \u043d\u0435\u043a\u043e\u0442\u043e\u0440\u044b\u0435 \u043d\u0430 \u0417\u0430\u043f\u0430\u0434\u0435, \u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u044c \u043d\u0435 \u044f\u0432\u043b\u044f\u0435\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0435\u0449\u0451 \u043e\u0434\u043d\u0438\u043c \u0434\u043e\u043c\u0438\u043d\u043e, \u0433\u043e\u0442\u043e\u0432\u044b\u043c \u0443\u043f\u0430\u0441\u0442\u044c \u043f\u0440\u0438 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0432\u044b\u0445 \u0436\u0435 \u0432\u044b\u0431\u043e\u0440\u0430\u0445.\" \u042d\u0442\u043e\u0442 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437 \u043f\u043e\u043b\u0443\u0447\u0438\u043b 95 \u0431\u0430\u043b\u043b\u043e\u0432.\r\n\r\n\u041d\u0435\u0434\u043e\u043e\u0446\u0435\u043d\u043a\u0430 \u0430\u0434\u0430\u043f\u0442\u0438\u0432\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u0440\u0435\u0436\u0438\u043c\u0430.<\/strong> \u0424\u043e\u043a\u0443\u0441 \u0431\u044b\u043b \u043d\u0430 \u0441\u043b\u0430\u0431\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044f\u0445, \u0443\u043f\u0443\u0441\u043a\u0430\u044f \u0441\u043f\u043e\u0441\u043e\u0431\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438. \u041f\u043e\u043b\u0438\u0442\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433 \u0412\u043b\u0430\u0434\u0438\u043c\u0438\u0440 \u041f\u043e\u0434\u0433\u043e\u043b \u0432 2007 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0443: \"\u043f\u0440\u043e\u0442\u0435\u0441\u0442\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u043f\u043e\u0442\u0435\u043d\u0446\u0438\u0430\u043b \u0441\u043b\u0438\u0448\u043a\u043e\u043c \u043c\u0430\u043b, \u0447\u0442\u043e\u0431\u044b \u0432\u044b\u0437\u0432\u0430\u0442\u044c \u043f\u043e\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0435 \u0441\u0434\u0432\u0438\u0433\u0438, \u0430 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u043f\u0430\u0433\u0430\u043d\u0434\u0430 \u043d\u0435 \u043f\u043e\u0437\u0432\u043e\u043b\u0438\u0442 \u0435\u043c\u0443 \u0432\u044b\u0440\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0438.\" \u041e\u043d \u043e\u043a\u0430\u0437\u0430\u043b\u0441\u044f \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0432 \u043d\u0430 13 \u043b\u0435\u0442 \u0432\u043f\u0435\u0440\u0451\u0434.\r\n\r\n\u041f\u0440\u0438\u043d\u044f\u0442\u0438\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u043f\u0430\u0433\u0430\u043d\u0434\u044b \u0437\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437.<\/strong> \u041a\u043e\u0433\u0434\u0430 \u0440\u0435\u0436\u0438\u043c \u043e\u0431\u0435\u0449\u0430\u043b \u0440\u043e\u0441\u0442 \u0412\u0412\u041f \u043d\u0430 11-13% \u0438\u043b\u0438 \u0432\u0445\u043e\u0436\u0434\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0432 \u0442\u043e\u043f-30 \u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d \u043f\u043e \u0434\u0435\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043e\u043c\u0443 \u043a\u043b\u0438\u043c\u0430\u0442\u0443, \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0438 \u043f\u0440\u0438\u043d\u0438\u043c\u0430\u043b\u0438 \u044d\u0442\u043e \u0437\u0430 \u043f\u043b\u0430\u043d\u044b. \u042d\u0442\u043e \u0432\u0441\u0435\u0433\u0434\u0430 \u0431\u044b\u043b\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u043f\u0430\u0433\u0430\u043d\u0434\u0430.\r\n\r\n\r\n

\u0418\u043d\u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0446\u0438\u043e\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e<\/H3>\r\n\u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0435 \u0433\u043e\u0441\u0443\u0434\u0430\u0440\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u043c\u0435\u0434\u0438\u0430 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u043b\u0438 \u0447\u0430\u0441\u0442\u044c\u044e \u0440\u043e\u0441\u0441\u0438\u0439\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0438\u043d\u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0446\u0438\u043e\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0430. \u0415\u0432\u0440\u043e\u043f\u0435\u0439\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0435 \u0438\u043d\u0441\u0442\u0438\u0442\u0443\u0442\u044b \u0440\u0430\u0437\u0433\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0447\u0438\u0432\u0430\u044e\u0442 \u0438\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u0438\u043d\u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0446\u0438\u043e\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u043c\u0430\u043d\u0438\u043f\u0443\u043b\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0435 (FIMI) \u0438 \u0432\u043d\u0443\u0442\u0440\u0435\u043d\u043d\u0435\u0435 (DIMI). \u0412 \u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0438 \u044d\u0442\u043e \u0440\u0430\u0437\u0433\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0447\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u043b\u043e \u043d\u0435\u0440\u0430\u0437\u0440\u0435\u0448\u0438\u043c\u044b\u043c: \u043d\u0430\u0440\u0440\u0430\u0442\u0438\u0432\u044b \u0440\u043e\u0441\u0441\u0438\u0439\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0438\u0441\u0445\u043e\u0436\u0434\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f \u043a\u043e\u043e\u0440\u0434\u0438\u043d\u0438\u0440\u0443\u044e\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0447\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0437 \u0422\u0410\u0421\u0421 \u0438 \u0443\u0441\u0438\u043b\u0438\u0432\u0430\u044e\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0447\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0437 \u0431\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0435 \u043a\u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u044b, \u0430 \u0441\u043e\u0431\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0435\u043d\u043d\u0430\u044f \u043f\u0440\u043e\u043f\u0430\u0433\u0430\u043d\u0434\u0430 \u0440\u0435\u0436\u0438\u043c\u0430 (\u043d\u0430\u0440\u0440\u0430\u0442\u0438\u0432 \"\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0440\u043e\u0432\u043a\u0430 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0431\u0438\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438\") \u0438\u0441\u043f\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0437\u0443\u0435\u0442 \u0442\u0435 \u0436\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0451\u043c\u044b. \u0418\u043d\u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0446\u0438\u043e\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u0441\u0438\u0441\u0442\u0435\u043c\u044b \u0434\u0432\u0443\u0445 \u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d \u0441\u043b\u0438\u043b\u0438\u0441\u044c \u0434\u043e \u0441\u0442\u0435\u043f\u0435\u043d\u0438, \u043a\u043e\u0433\u0434\u0430 \u0440\u0430\u0437\u043b\u0438\u0447\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u043b\u043e \u043d\u0435\u0432\u043e\u0437\u043c\u043e\u0436\u043d\u044b\u043c. \u0421\u0443\u0432\u0435\u0440\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0438\u0437\u0432\u043e\u0434\u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e \u0438\u043d\u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0446\u0438\u0438 \u0432\u043d\u0443\u0442\u0440\u0438 \u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d\u044b \u0444\u0430\u043a\u0442\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0438 \u043f\u0440\u0435\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0442\u0438\u043b\u043e \u0441\u0443\u0449\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u043a\u0430\u043a \u043e\u0442\u0434\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430\u044f \u043a\u0430\u0442\u0435\u0433\u043e\u0440\u0438\u044f.\r\n\r\n\"\"\r\n\r\n\u0423\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0435\u043d\u044c \u043e\u0431\u043d\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f \u0438\u043d\u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0446\u0438\u043e\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043c\u0430\u043d\u0438\u043f\u0443\u043b\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u044f \u0432 \u0431\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0445 \u0433\u043e\u0441\u0443\u0434\u0430\u0440\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u043c\u0435\u0434\u0438\u0430 \u043f\u043e \u0434\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u043c FORESIGHT: \u044d\u043a\u043e\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0438\u043a\u0430 94,8%, \u043c\u0435\u0434\u0438\u0430\/\u0438\u043d\u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0446\u0438\u044f 81,2%, \u043f\u043e\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0430 67,7%, \u0433\u0435\u043e\u043f\u043e\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0430 67,5%, \u0433\u0440\u0430\u0436\u0434\u0430\u043d\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0435 \u043e\u0431\u0449\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e 66,6%, \u0442\u0435\u0445\u043d\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0438 57,8%.\r\n\r\n

\u0427\u0442\u043e \u0438\u0437 \u044d\u0442\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0441\u043b\u0435\u0434\u0443\u0435\u0442<\/H3>\r\n\u0412\u043d\u0438\u043c\u0430\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e \u0441\u043b\u0435\u0434\u0438\u0442\u044c, \u043a\u043e\u0433\u0434\u0430 \u0442\u0435\u043a\u0443\u0449\u0438\u0439 \u0440\u0435\u0436\u0438\u043c \u0433\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0440\u0438\u0442 \u043e\u0431 \u043e\u0433\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0447\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f\u0445. \u0417\u0430\u043a\u043e\u043d\u044b \u043e \u043a\u043e\u043d\u0442\u0440\u043e\u043b\u0435 \u043c\u0435\u0434\u0438\u0430, \u0442\u0440\u0435\u0431\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u044f \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0433\u0438\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u0446\u0438\u0438 \u043e\u0440\u0433\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0437\u0430\u0446\u0438\u0439, \u0437\u0430\u043a\u043e\u043d\u044b \u043e \u043d\u0430\u0434\u0437\u043e\u0440\u0435 \u0437\u0430 \u0438\u043d\u0442\u0435\u0440\u043d\u0435\u0442\u043e\u043c: \u043a\u043e\u0433\u0434\u0430 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0438 \u043f\u0440\u0438\u043d\u0438\u043c\u0430\u043b\u0438 \u0442\u0430\u043a\u0438\u0435 \u0437\u0430\u044f\u0432\u043b\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f \u0431\u0443\u043a\u0432\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e, \u0442\u043e\u0447\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0432\u044b\u0448\u0430\u043b\u0430 85%. \u041a\u043e\u0433\u0434\u0430 \u0442\u0440\u0430\u043a\u0442\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0438 \u043a\u0430\u043a \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0433\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0440\u043d\u0443\u044e \u043f\u043e\u0437\u0438\u0446\u0438\u044e, \u043f\u0430\u0434\u0430\u043b\u0430 \u043d\u0438\u0436\u0435 50%.\r\n\r\n\u041d\u0435 \u0432\u0435\u0440\u0438\u0442\u044c \u0440\u0435\u0436\u0438\u043c\u0443, \u043a\u043e\u0433\u0434\u0430 \u043e\u043d \u043e\u0431\u0435\u0449\u0430\u0435\u0442 \u0440\u0430\u0437\u0432\u0438\u0442\u0438\u0435. \u042d\u043a\u043e\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0435, \u0442\u0435\u0445\u043d\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0435 \u0438 \u0441\u043e\u0446\u0438\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u0446\u0435\u043b\u0435\u0432\u044b\u0435 \u043f\u043e\u043a\u0430\u0437\u0430\u0442\u0435\u043b\u0438 \u043e\u043a\u0430\u0437\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0441\u044c \u043d\u0430\u0438\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0435\u0435 \u043d\u0430\u0434\u0451\u0436\u043d\u044b\u043c\u0438 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0430\u043c\u0438.\r\n\r\n\u041d\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0435\u0446\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u0442\u044c \u0447\u0443\u0436\u043e\u0439 \u043e\u043f\u044b\u0442. \u041d\u0438 \u0433\u0440\u0443\u0437\u0438\u043d\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0439, \u043d\u0438 \u0443\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0438\u043d\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0439, \u043d\u0438 \u043f\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0439 \u0441\u0446\u0435\u043d\u0430\u0440\u0438\u0439 \u043d\u0435 \u043f\u043e\u0434\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0438\u043b \u043a \u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0438. \u041a\u0430\u0436\u0434\u044b\u0439 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437, \u043f\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0440\u043e\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u043d\u0430 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0438, \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0438\u043b\u0441\u044f.\r\n\r\n\u041e\u0446\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0432\u0430\u0442\u044c \u0443\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0439\u0447\u0438\u0432\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c \u0440\u0435\u0436\u0438\u043c\u0430, \u0430 \u043d\u0435 \u043f\u043e\u0442\u0435\u043d\u0446\u0438\u0430\u043b \u043e\u043f\u043f\u043e\u0437\u0438\u0446\u0438\u0438. \u041f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u044b \u043e \u0441\u0438\u043b\u0435 \u043e\u043f\u043f\u043e\u0437\u0438\u0446\u0438\u0438 \u0441\u0438\u0441\u0442\u0435\u043c\u0430\u0442\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0438 \u043d\u0430\u0431\u0438\u0440\u0430\u043b\u0438 20-30% \u0442\u043e\u0447\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438. \u041f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u044b \u043e \u0441\u0438\u043b\u0435 \u0440\u0435\u0436\u0438\u043c\u0430, 85-95%.\r\n\r\n\u0421\u043c\u043e\u0442\u0440\u0435\u0442\u044c \u043d\u0430 \u0438\u043d\u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0446\u0438\u043e\u043d\u043d\u0443\u044e \u0441\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0443. \u0421\u0442\u0435\u043f\u0435\u043d\u044c \u0438\u043d\u0442\u0435\u0433\u0440\u0430\u0446\u0438\u0438 \u0431\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0445 \u0433\u043e\u0441\u0443\u0434\u0430\u0440\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u043c\u0435\u0434\u0438\u0430 \u0432 \u0440\u043e\u0441\u0441\u0438\u0439\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0435 \u0438\u043d\u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0446\u0438\u043e\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e, \u043d\u0430\u0438\u0431\u043e\u043b\u0435\u0435 \u0437\u043d\u0430\u0447\u0438\u043c\u044b\u0439 \u0438 \u043d\u0430\u0438\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0435\u0435 \u043e\u0431\u0441\u0443\u0436\u0434\u0430\u0435\u043c\u044b\u0439 \u0438\u043d\u0434\u0438\u043a\u0430\u0442\u043e\u0440 \u043f\u043e\u0442\u0435\u0440\u0438 \u0441\u0443\u0432\u0435\u0440\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0442\u0435\u0442\u0430.\r\n\r\n\u0412\u043e\u043f\u0440\u043e\u0441\u044b \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0435\u043c\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u043d\u043e\u0432\u044f\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0432\u0441\u0451 \u0431\u043e\u043b\u0435\u0435 \u0430\u043a\u0442\u0443\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u043c\u0438. \u041f\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043b\u044b \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u044f \u043f\u043e\u0441\u043b\u0435\u0434\u043d\u0438\u0445 \u0434\u0432\u0430\u0434\u0446\u0430\u0442\u0438 \u043b\u0435\u0442 \u0434\u0430\u044e\u0442 \u043e\u0441\u043d\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u044f \u0434\u043b\u044f \u043e\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0440\u043e\u0436\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438.\r\n\r\n

\u0427\u0442\u043e \u0434\u0430\u043b\u044c\u0448\u0435<\/H3>\r\n\u0426\u0438\u043a\u043b\u044b \u043b\u043e\u0436\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u043e\u0442\u0442\u0435\u043f\u0435\u043b\u0438. \u041a\u0430\u0436\u0434\u043e\u0435 \u0441\u043e\u0431\u044b\u0442\u0438\u0435, \u0438\u043d\u0442\u0435\u0440\u043f\u0440\u0435\u0442\u0438\u0440\u0443\u0435\u043c\u043e\u0435 \u043a\u0430\u043a \"\u043e\u0442\u043a\u0440\u044b\u0442\u0438\u0435,\" \u043f\u043e\u0440\u043e\u0436\u0434\u0430\u043b\u043e \u0432\u043e\u043b\u043d\u0443 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u043e\u0432 \u043e \u043b\u0438\u0431\u0435\u0440\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437\u0430\u0446\u0438\u0438. \u041c\u043e\u0436\u043d\u043e \u0438\u0437\u043c\u0435\u0440\u0438\u0442\u044c, \u043a\u0430\u043a\u0438\u0435 \u0441\u043e\u0431\u044b\u0442\u0438\u044f \u0432\u044b\u0437\u044b\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0438 \u043d\u0430\u0438\u0431\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0448\u0438\u0439 \u0432\u0441\u043f\u043b\u0435\u0441\u043a \u043b\u043e\u0436\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043e\u043f\u0442\u0438\u043c\u0438\u0437\u043c\u0430 \u0438 \u0447\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0437 \u043a\u0430\u043a\u043e\u0435 \u0432\u0440\u0435\u043c\u044f \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u044b \u043e\u043f\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0435\u0440\u0433\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0441\u044c.\r\n\r\n
\r\n\u0427\u0442\u043e \u043d\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0441\u043a\u0430\u0437\u0430\u043b \u043d\u0438\u043a\u0442\u043e. \u041f\u043e\u0447\u0435\u043c\u0443 10 \u0438\u0437 12 \u043a\u043b\u044e\u0447\u0435\u0432\u044b\u0445 \u0440\u0430\u0437\u0432\u0438\u0442\u0438\u0439 \u043f\u043e\u043b\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c\u044e \u043e\u0442\u0441\u0443\u0442\u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0438 \u0432 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u043d\u043e\u043c \u043f\u043e\u043b\u0435? \u0427\u0442\u043e \u0438\u043c\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e \u0432 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u043e\u043c \u043c\u044b\u0448\u043b\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0438 2005-2013 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u043e\u0432 \u0441\u043e\u0437\u0434\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043b\u043e \u0441\u043b\u0435\u043f\u044b\u0435 \u043f\u044f\u0442\u043d\u0430?\r\n<\/blockquote>\r\n\r\n\u041c\u043e\u0436\u0435\u0442 \u043b\u0438 \u043b\u0435\u043a\u0441\u0438\u043a\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0441\u043a\u0430\u0437\u0430\u0442\u044c \u0435\u0433\u043e \u0442\u043e\u0447\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c? \u041f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0432\u0430\u0440\u0438\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u0434\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u043f\u043e\u043a\u0430\u0437\u044b\u0432\u0430\u044e\u0442, \u0447\u0442\u043e \u043a\u043b\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0435\u0440 \u0430\u0432\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0438\u0442\u0430\u0440\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u043a\u043e\u043d\u0441\u043e\u043b\u0438\u0434\u0430\u0446\u0438\u0438 \u0434\u0430\u043b 100% \u0442\u043e\u0447\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438, \u043a\u043b\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0435\u0440 \u0435\u0432\u0440\u043e\u043f\u0435\u0439\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0430 43%. \u0415\u0441\u043b\u0438 \u044d\u0442\u0430 \u0437\u0430\u043a\u043e\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0435\u0440\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c \u043f\u043e\u0434\u0442\u0432\u0435\u0440\u0436\u0434\u0430\u0435\u0442\u0441\u044f \u043d\u0430 \u0431\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0448\u0435\u0439 \u0432\u044b\u0431\u043e\u0440\u043a\u0435, \u044d\u0442\u043e \u043f\u043e\u0437\u0432\u043e\u043b\u044f\u0435\u0442 \u0441\u0442\u0440\u043e\u0438\u0442\u044c \u043a\u043e\u043b\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u043c\u043e\u0434\u0435\u043b\u0438 \u043e\u0446\u0435\u043d\u043a\u0438 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043a\u0430\u0447\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0430.\r\n\r\n\u0421\u0440\u0430\u0432\u043d\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0441 \u0434\u0440\u0443\u0433\u0438\u043c\u0438 \u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0430\u043c\u0438. \u0422\u0435 \u0436\u0435 \u043b\u0438 \u0438\u0441\u043a\u0430\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f \u043f\u043e\u0432\u0442\u043e\u0440\u044f\u044e\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0432 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0438 \u043e\u0442\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0438\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e \u0420\u043e\u0441\u0441\u0438\u0438, \u0418\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0430, \u0412\u0435\u043d\u0435\u0441\u0443\u044d\u043b\u044b, \u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d \u0426\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u0410\u0437\u0438\u0438? \u0415\u0441\u043b\u0438 \u0434\u0430, \u0431\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0439 \u043a\u0435\u0439\u0441 \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0432\u0440\u0430\u0449\u0430\u0435\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0432 \u043a\u0440\u0438\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0443 \u043f\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0441\u043e\u0432\u0435\u0442\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u044f \u0432 \u0446\u0435\u043b\u043e\u043c, \u0430 \u043c\u0435\u0442\u043e\u0434\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u044f \u043c\u043e\u0436\u0435\u0442 \u0438\u0441\u043f\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0437\u043e\u0432\u0430\u0442\u044c\u0441\u044f \u0434\u043b\u044f \u043b\u044e\u0431\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0430\u0432\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0438\u0442\u0430\u0440\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043a\u043e\u043d\u0442\u0435\u043a\u0441\u0442\u0430.\r\n\r\n\r\n\u041e \u0434\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445.<\/strong> \u041f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u044b \u0438\u0437\u0432\u043b\u0435\u0447\u0435\u043d\u044b \u0438\u0437 \u0430\u0440\u0445\u0438\u0432\u043e\u0432 2005-2011 \u0438 1 346 \u043f\u0443\u0431\u043b\u0438\u043a\u0430\u0446\u0438\u0439, 1996-2021 \u0441 \u043f\u043e\u043c\u043e\u0449\u044c\u044e \u043a\u043e\u043d\u0432\u0435\u0439\u0435\u0440\u0430: \u0441\u0435\u043c\u0430\u043d\u0442\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0430\u044f \u0444\u0438\u043b\u044c\u0442\u0440\u0430\u0446\u0438\u044f \u0447\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0437 pgvector (500 \u043a\u0430\u043d\u0434\u0438\u0434\u0430\u0442\u043e\u0432 \u0438\u0437 21 511 \u0434\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u043e\u0432), \u0441\u0442\u0440\u0443\u043a\u0442\u0443\u0440\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u0438\u0437\u0432\u043b\u0435\u0447\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0447\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0437 Claude Sonnet (715 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u043e\u0432), \u043e\u0446\u0435\u043d\u043a\u0430 \u043f\u043e \u0434\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u043c \u043f\u043b\u0430\u0442\u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u044b FORESIGHT (1,9 \u043c\u043b\u043d \u0434\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u043e\u0432, 50 \u0438\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0447\u043d\u0438\u043a\u043e\u0432, 2024-2026). \u0412\u0441\u0435 \u0434\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u0438 \u0441\u043a\u0440\u0438\u043f\u0442\u044b \u0434\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0443\u043f\u043d\u044b \u043f\u043e \u0437\u0430\u043f\u0440\u043e\u0441\u0443 \u0434\u043b\u044f \u0438\u0441\u0441\u043b\u0435\u0434\u043e\u0432\u0430\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0445 \u0446\u0435\u043b\u0435\u0439.\r\n<\/small>\r\n","_ru_post_name":"predictions_analysis","_ru_post_excerpt":"","_ru_post_title":"\u041a\u043e\u0433\u0434\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u044b \u043e\u0448\u0438\u0431\u0430\u044e\u0442\u0441\u044f: \u0430\u0443\u0434\u0438\u0442 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u043e\u0432 \u043e \u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0438 \u043f\u044f\u0442\u043d\u0430\u0434\u0446\u0430\u0442\u0438\u043b\u0435\u0442\u043d\u0435\u0439 \u0434\u0430\u0432\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438","_eng_post_content":"TL;DR<\/strong>\r\n\r\nUsing our analytical platform, which contains over 1.9 million documents from Belarusian state and independent media, we conducted a systematic verification of forecasts made about the future of Belarus between 2005 and 2013.\r\n\r\nThis analysis utilized two historical archives: a collection of over 20,000 English-language articles about Belarus from 2005 to 2011, and 1,346 think tank publications covering the period from 1996 to 2021. We scanned 21,511 documents using semantic search, extracted 715 specific predictive statements, and assessed the 157 most verifiable of them against the current situation.\r\n\r\nResult: Overall Accuracy65.0<\/strong> from 100<\/strong>.\r\n\r\n

What was predicted?<\/H3>In the years between the disputed 2006 elections and the catastrophic defeat of December 2010, a characteristic consensus emerged among Western analysts. Belarus was finally ready for change. Lukashenko, under economic pressure and in periodic conflict with Moscow, would be forced to liberalize. The EU's \"Eastern Partnership\" offered incentives. A new generation of Belarusians, connected to the world via the internet, would demand change.\r\n\r\nSpecific predictions sounded like this. In 2009, analysts wrote that Lukashenko's reaction \"could be a radical turn toward the EU.\" In 2010, they asserted: \"This model can and should work, as Ukraine's experience has shown,\" implying that Belarus was capable of simultaneously being friends with Russia and joining the EU. The irony of this phrase, written before Crimea, before 2020, before everything that followed, is double. Lukashenko personally promised an average salary of $500, calling it a \"sacred number.\" State plans envisioned GDP growth of 11-13%. Analysts at e-belarus.org were no exception: they predicted an improvement in Belarus's position in the ITU rankings by 2015.\r\n\r\nAnother example is also telling: in 2010, opposition candidate Andrei Sannikov welcomed what he called\"the last year of the dictatorship,\"<\/i>Rejecting Lukashenko's regime as incapable of overcoming current problems. Following mass protests on December 19, 2010, he was arrested and sentenced to five years in prison in May 2011. He spent a total of approximately 16 months in prison. Sixteen years later, Lukashenko remains in power.\r\n\r\n

What happened?<\/H3>Reality took a different turn. Instead of emerging from isolation, Belarus sank deeper into authoritarianism after the 2020 elections, becoming more dependent on Russia than at any point since independence. Instead of integrating with the EU, the regime firmly entrenched itself in Moscow's orbit, deploying tactical nuclear weapons on its territory. The balancing act that had defined Belarusian policy for two decades collapsed.\r\n\r\nThe 2020 protests triggered the most brutal repression in the country's post-Soviet history. More than 200,000 people fled Belarus. Independent media were systematically destroyed. Civil society organizations were shut down or driven underground. An entire media ecosystem relocated to Poland, Lithuania, and Georgia, continuing its work from exile.\r\n\r\nThe promised economic modernization did not materialize as predicted. The \"holy number\" of $500 was derailed by the 2011 currency crisis. According to Belstat data for March 2026, the nominal accrued average salary is 2,975.8 rubles (approximately $1,069 at the current exchange rate), while the median, calculated for November 2025, is 2,081.7 rubles (approximately $748). Formally, the \"sacred number\" is doubled, but the context is radically different. The net median salary of an average worker (after deducting 13% income tax and 1% contribution to the Social Security Fund) is approximately $643. The Belarusian ruble has strengthened against the dollar by 20% in 2025, artificially inflating the dollar equivalent. The range across industries is enormous: from 6,957 rubles in the IT sector to 2,066 rubles in education. The Belarusian economy is now structurally dependent on the needs of Russia's militarized economy, and rising housing costs are largely due to the relocation of Russian citizens. When compared with the Baltic states and Poland, the gap remains stark, although domestic discourse compensates for this with arguments about the cost of food and utilities.\r\n\r\nThe information environment has evolved in directions almost no one foresaw. A 2006 article warned that\"The internet in Belarus will soon be under state control.\"<\/i><\/strong>At the time, it sounded alarmist. It turned out to be one of the most accurate forecasts in the entire corpus.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Scorecard<\/H3>Of the 157 forecasts evaluated, 84 were confirmed, 27 were partially confirmed, 39 were refuted, and 4 were inverted: the exact opposite occurred.\r\n\r\n\"\"\r\n\r\nThe confirmed forecasts paint a recognizable portrait. \"Lukashenko will declare victory in the 2010 elections\" (100\/100). \"The authorities will use all means to suppress the opposition rally\" (95\/100). \"Opposition candidates will not be elected due to an unfair electoral process\" (95\/100). \"Belarus will remain heavily dependent on Russian energy\" (95\/100). \"This law is another attack on media independence\" (95\/100, source: Reporters Without Borders). All describe the mechanics of authoritarian control. All took the regime's statements literally.\r\n\r\nThe partially confirmed forecasts point in the right direction, but are off in scale. \"Belarus will be forced to join Russia on Russia's terms\" (75\/100): dependence has increased, but formal annexation has not occurred. \"Rising gas prices will pose a serious challenge\" (70\/100): the 2011 crisis occurred, but the regime survived.\r\n\r\nThe disproven are united by a belief in the inevitability of change. \"2010 will be the last year of the dictatorship\" (5\/100). \"Belarus will enter the top 30 countries for business climate\" (5\/100). \"Lukashenko will extend a hand to the moderate opposition after international condemnation\" (5\/100). \"GDP will grow by 11-13%\" (15\/100, source: Jamestown Foundation).\r\n\r\nFour inverted: the exact opposite occurred. \"Lukashenko could make a radical turn toward the EU\" (5\/100). \"Belarus could follow the Ukrainian model\" (5\/100). \"Belarus should integrate into the global economy and move toward Europe\" (10\/100). \"Belarus is emerging from isolation and will continue dialogue with the EU\" (15\/100). All four touched on the European vector. Each predicted rapprochement. Each saw the opposite.\r\n\r\n

Domain Accuracy<\/H3>Accuracy varied dramatically across topics, and this pattern is a central finding of the study.\r\n\r\n\"\"\r\n
\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
Domain<\/th>\r\nAccuracy<\/th>\r\nCharacteristic<\/th>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/thead>\r\n
Media\/information<\/td>\r\n84.6%<\/td>\r\nPredictions about control over the Internet and the press<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Safety<\/td>\r\n82.4%<\/td>\r\nForecasts about the ability of security forces to suppress<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Civil society<\/td>\r\n72.8%<\/td>\r\nForecasts of pressure on organizations<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Technologies<\/td>\r\n69.5%<\/td>\r\nInfrastructure is correct, ratings are not.<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Social sphere<\/td>\r\n60.0%<\/td>\r\nLimited sample (3 forecasts)<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Geopolitics<\/td>\r\n54.5%<\/td>\r\nSystemic reassessment of the European vector<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Policy<\/td>\r\n54.4%<\/td>\r\nElections are correct, transit is not.<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Economy<\/td>\r\n46.2%<\/td>\r\nPropaganda was taken for a forecast<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n<\/div>\r\nThe closer to the mechanics of authoritarianism, the more accurate the forecast. The closer to expectations of change, the worse.\r\n\r\n

Who was wrong: source ranking<\/H3>Attribution of forecasts to sources through text extraction from the database revealed three analytical schools with varying degrees of accuracy.
\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
Source<\/th>\r\nAccuracy<\/th>\r\nForecasts<\/th>\r\nSchool<\/th>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/thead>\r\n
Belapan<\/td>\r\n91.0<\/td>\r\n3<\/td>\r\nDocumenting<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Reporters Without Borders (RSF)<\/td>\r\n88.3<\/td>\r\n12<\/td>\r\nDocumenting<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Reuters<\/td>\r\n86.5<\/td>\r\n2<\/td>\r\nDocumenting<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Charter97<\/td>\r\n72.5<\/td>\r\n4<\/td>\r\nOpposition<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
OSCE<\/td>\r\n57.5<\/td>\r\n4<\/td>\r\nDiplomatic<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
BBC<\/td>\r\n57.0<\/td>\r\n5<\/td>\r\nInstitutional<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Radio Liberty<\/td>\r\n49.7<\/td>\r\n6<\/td>\r\nTransitological<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Jamestown Foundation<\/td>\r\n18.3<\/td>\r\n3<\/td>\r\nTransitological<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n<\/div>The documentation school (RSF, Belapan, Reuters) recorded the regime's actions without interpreting its intentions through the lens of democratization. Accuracy: 86-91%.\r\n\r\nThe diplomatic-institutional school (OSCE, BBC) balanced between realism and normative expectations. Accuracy: 57-58%.\r\n\r\nThe transitional school (Jamestown Foundation, Radio Liberty) applied democratic transition models. Accuracy: 18-50%.\r\n\r\nA 70-point gap between RSF and the Jamestown Foundation: a single figure that explains twenty years of erroneous forecasting. The further the analyst departs from the facts and the closer to democratic transition theory, the worse the forecast.\r\n\r\n

What words predicted the error?<\/H3>A lexical analysis of 157 assessed forecasts (forecast text only, without retrospective explanations) revealed a strong correlation between word usage and accuracy.\r\n\r\nWords that appeared exclusively in failed forecasts: \"potential,\" \"become,\" \"top,\" \"world,\" \"protest,\" \"rise,\" \"must,\" \"reform,\" \"europe.\" Words that appeared exclusively in accurate forecasts: \"independent,\" \"media,\" \"elections,\" \"authorities,\" \"gas,\" \"presidential.\"\r\n\r\nWhen grouped into narrative clusters, the picture became even clearer. Authoritarian consolidation cluster (control, pressure, restrictions, surveillance, dependence): 6 accurate, 0 incorrect. 100% accuracy. European transition cluster (reform, integration, business, openness): 3 accurate, 4 incorrect. 43%.\r\n\r\nWordstability<\/strong>It appears only in accurate forecasts. When analysts used it to describe the institutional resilience of authoritarianism, they were right. The regime's propaganda about the \"island of stability\" uses the same word, but with the opposite meaning: not a diagnosis, but an advertising slogan. For all these years, state media have systematically exacerbated the problems of democratic countries and presented Belarus as an island of order in a \"sea of chaos.\" Today, this narrative is in remarkable contradiction with the growing rhetoric of ideological warfare: the regime simultaneously tells the population that Belarus is uniquely stable and that it is under siege, and that sanctions are an existential threat.\r\n\r\nThe language of democratic transition (\"transition,\" \"reform,\" \"democratization,\" \"opening,\" \"crossroads\") was found in erroneous forecasts 1.6 times more often. The more the analyst used this vocabulary, the worse the forecast. The more the language described\r\nthe system as it is, rather than as it should be, the closer it came to reality.\r\n\r\n

The paradox of confidence<\/H3>The hypothesis was that the most confident predictions would be the most erroneous. The data showed the opposite.
\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
Confidence level<\/th>\r\nAverage accuracy<\/th>\r\nForecasts<\/th>\r\nCatastrophic failures<\/th>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/thead>\r\n
High<\/td>\r\n78.7<\/td>\r\n60<\/td>\r\n2<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Average<\/td>\r\n47.5<\/td>\r\n34<\/td>\r\n7<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Cautious<\/td>\r\n44.3<\/td>\r\n10<\/td>\r\n1<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n<\/div>\r\n

High-confidence forecasts were confident in the mechanics of authoritarianism: \"Lukashenko will definitely win,\" \"the authorities will definitely suppress,\" \"the media will definitely be restricted.\" The authors were confident in negative outcomes, and they were right. Moderately confident and cautious forecasts were unsure about positive scenarios: \"Belarus could move toward the EU,\" \"reforms are possible.\" The authors were doubtful, and rightly so, but for the wrong reasons: they assumed both outcomes, while reality only allowed for one.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

Not overconfidence, but asymmetric certainty: analysts were correctly calibrated when they said what the regime would do, and uncalibrated when they said that the regime might change.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

What no one foresaw<\/H3>Of the 12 key developments that defined Belarus after 2013, we checked for each in a corpus of 715 forecasts. Ten turned out to be complete blind spots: not a single mention. A total repressive restructuring of the state. Emigration of over 200,000 people. Telegram as an infrastructure for protests and media in exile. The deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons. The use of migration as a weapon against the EU. The interception of a Ryanair flight. Loss of information sovereignty. A complete internet shutdown as a crisis management tool. The normalization of a state of emergency for years. The use of Belarusian territory to invade Ukraine.\r\n\r\nOnly mass protests were partially predicted (one mention: \"if hundreds of thousands come out, the security forces will go over to the side of the people,\" which also turned out to be an error). Mass emigration received one partial mention: \"continued repression could lead to mass emigration.\"\r\n\r\nWith a doubled sample size (715 instead of 349 forecasts), not a single new topic moved from a blind spot to a predictable one. This is not an artifact of the small sample size, but a structural property of analytical thinking from 2005 to 2013.\r\n\r\n

False thaws<\/H3>A time-lapse analysis revealed three periods when forecast optimism was high and forecast accuracy was low.\r\n\r\n2007:<\/strong>The gas conflict with Russia has sparked expectations of a turn toward the West. Optimism: 38.8%; accuracy: 42.5 out of 100.\r\n\r\n2009:<\/strong>The global financial crisis and the \"thaw\" in relations with the EU. Peak optimism: 47.8%, low pessimism: 15.9%. Analysts widely predicted a rapprochement with Europe. A year later, the mayhem in the square occurred.\r\n\r\n2010:<\/strong>Election cycle. 232 forecasts, more than any other year. Optimism 42.7%, accuracy 44.7 out of 100.\r\n\r\nEvery event interpreted as a \"breakthrough\" (the release of political prisoners, dialogue with the EU, the gas conflict, the economic crisis) generated a wave of liberalization forecasts. Almost all of them failed. After 2010, optimism fell to 28.1%, pessimism rose to 56.2%. Reality shattered these illusions, but only temporarily: in 2012-2013, optimism returned in the technological domain.\r\n\r\n

Why They Went Wrong: Five Systemic Biases<\/H3>\r\n\r\n\"\"\r\n\r\nBelief in the inevitability of democratization.<\/strong>Analysts considered authoritarianism a transitional phase, not a stable state. In 2005, it was predicted that \"Belarusian youth will be very active in the 2006 elections, and it will be a year of great change.\" A direct import of the Georgian and Ukrainian scenarios into a country where it didn't work.\r\n\r\nReassessing economic incentives.<\/strong>When faced with a choice between economic efficiency and political control, Lukashenko invariably chose control. This pattern can be traced through the 2011 currency crisis, the post-sanctions adaptation after 2020, and the current economic integration with Russia.\r\n\r\nThe illusion of multi-vectorality.<\/strong>It seemed as if Belarus could balance endlessly between Russia and the EU. One analyst in 2006 was closer to the truth than most: \"Despite some in the West's hopes, Belarus is not another domino ready to fall at the first election.\" This forecast received a score of 95.\r\n\r\nUnderestimating the adaptability of the regime.<\/strong>The focus was on weaknesses, overlooking potential. Political scientist Vladimir Podgol in 2007: \"The protest potential is too small to bring about political change, and propaganda will not allow it to grow.\" He proved right 13 years later.\r\n\r\nMistaking propaganda for a forecast.<\/strong>When the regime promised 11-13% GDP growth or entry into the top 30 countries for business climate, analysts took it as a plan. It was always propaganda.\r\n\r\n

Information space<\/H3>Belarusian state media have become part of the Russian information space. European institutions distinguish between foreign information manipulation (FIMI) and domestic information manipulation (DIMI). In Belarus, this distinction has become irreconcilable: narratives originating in Russia are coordinated through TASS and amplified through Belarusian channels, while the regime's own propaganda (the \"island of stability\" narrative) employs the same techniques. The two countries' information systems have merged to the point where distinctions are impossible. Sovereign information production within the country has effectively ceased to exist as a separate category.\r\n\r\n\"\"\r\n\r\nThe detection rate of information manipulation in Belarusian state media, according to FORESIGHT, is as follows: economics 94.8%, media\/information 81.2%, politics 67.7%, geopolitics 67.5%, civil society 66.6%, and technology 57.8%.\r\n\r\n

What follows from this?<\/H3>Pay close attention when the current regime talks about restrictions. Media control laws, requirements for re-registration of organizations, internet surveillance laws: when analysts took such statements literally, the accuracy rate exceeded 85%. When interpreted as a negotiating position, it fell below 50%.\r\n\r\nDon't trust the regime when it promises development. Economic, technological, and social targets turned out to be the least reliable forecasts.\r\n\r\nDon't project other people's experiences. Neither the Georgian, Ukrainian, nor Polish scenarios applied to Belarus. Every forecast based on analogy failed.\r\n\r\nEvaluate the stability of the regime, not the potential of the opposition. Forecasts about the strength of the opposition consistently achieved 20-30% accuracy. Forecasts about the strength of the regime, 85-95%.\r\n\r\nLook at the information environment. The degree of integration of Belarusian state media into the Russian information space is the most significant and least discussed indicator of the loss of sovereignty.\r\n\r\nIssues of succession are becoming increasingly pressing. The forecasting failures of the last twenty years provide grounds for caution.\r\n\r\n

What's next?<\/H3>\r\nCycles of false thaw. Each event interpreted as an \"opening\" generated a wave of predictions of liberalization. It's possible to measure which events generated the greatest surge of false optimism and how long it took for these predictions to be disproved.\r\n\r\n
\r\nWhat no one predicted. Why were 10 of the 12 key developments completely absent from the forecast? What exactly in the analytical thinking of 2005-2013 created blind spots?\r\n<\/blockquote>\r\n\r\nCan forecast vocabulary predict its accuracy? Preliminary data show that the authoritarian consolidation cluster yielded 100% accuracy, while the European transition cluster yielded 43%. If this pattern is confirmed across a larger sample, it allows for the construction of quantitative models to assess analytical quality.\r\n\r\nComparison with other countries. Are the same distortions repeated in forecasts for Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and Central Asian countries? If so, the Belarusian case becomes a critique of post-Soviet forecasting in general, and the methodology can be applied to any authoritarian context.\r\n\r\n\r\nAbout the data.<\/strong>Forecasts were extracted from archives spanning 2005-2011 and 1,346 publications, spanning 1996-2021, using the following pipeline: semantic filtering via pgvector (500 candidates from 21,511 documents), structured extraction via Claude Sonnet (715 forecasts), and evaluation using FORESIGHT platform data (1.9 million documents, 50 sources, spanning 2024-2026). All data and scripts are available upon request for research purposes.<\/small>","_eng_post_name":"predictions_analysis","_eng_post_excerpt":"","_eng_post_title":"When predictions fail to materialise: an analysis of predictions about Belarus made fifteen years ago","_bel_post_content":"TL;DR<\/strong>\r\n\r\n\u0412\u044b\u043a\u0430\u0440\u044b\u0441\u0442\u043e\u045e\u0432\u0430\u044e\u0447\u044b \u043d\u0430\u0448\u0443 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0442\u044b\u0447\u043d\u0443\u044e \u043f\u043b\u0430\u0442\u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0443, \u044f\u043a\u0430\u044f \u0437\u043c\u044f\u0448\u0447\u0430\u0435 \u0431\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0448 \u0437\u0430 1,9 \u043c\u0456\u043b\u044c\u0451\u043d\u0430 \u0434\u0430\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0430\u045e \u0437 \u0431\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u043a\u0456\u0445 \u0434\u0437\u044f\u0440\u0436\u0430\u045e\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0456 \u043d\u0435\u0437\u0430\u043b\u0435\u0436\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u043c\u0435\u0434\u044b\u044f\u045e, \u043c\u044b \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0432\u044f\u043b\u0456 \u0441\u0456\u0441\u0442\u044d\u043c\u0430\u0442\u044b\u0447\u043d\u0443\u044e \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0432\u0435\u0440\u043a\u0443 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0430\u045e, \u044f\u043a\u0456\u044f \u0440\u0430\u0431\u0456\u043b\u0456\u0441\u044f \u043f\u0440\u0430 \u0431\u0443\u0434\u0443\u0447\u044b\u043d\u044e \u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0456 \u045e \u043f\u0435\u0440\u044b\u044f\u0434 \u0437 2005 \u043f\u0430 2013 \u0433\u043e\u0434.\r\n\r\n\u0414\u043b\u044f \u0433\u044d\u0442\u0430\u0433\u0430 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0437\u0443 \u0431\u044b\u043b\u0456 \u0432\u044b\u043a\u0430\u0440\u044b\u0441\u0442\u0430\u043d\u044b\u044f \u0434\u0432\u0430 \u0433\u0456\u0441\u0442\u0430\u0440\u044b\u0447\u043d\u044b\u044f \u0430\u0440\u0445\u0456\u0432\u044b: \u043a\u0430\u043b\u0435\u043a\u0446\u044b\u044f \u0437 \u0431\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0448 \u0447\u044b\u043c 20 000 \u0430\u043d\u0433\u043b\u0430\u043c\u043e\u045e\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0430\u0440\u0442\u044b\u043a\u0443\u043b\u0430\u045e \u043f\u0440\u0430 \u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u044c \u0437\u0430 2005-2011 \u0433\u0430\u0434\u044b, \u0456 1346 \u043f\u0443\u0431\u043b\u0456\u043a\u0430\u0446\u044b\u0439 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0442\u044b\u0447\u043d\u0430\u0433\u0430 \u0446\u044d\u043d\u0442\u0440\u0430, \u044f\u043a\u0456\u044f \u0430\u0445\u043e\u043f\u043b\u0456\u0432\u0430\u044e\u0446\u044c \u043f\u0435\u0440\u044b\u044f\u0434 \u0437 1996 \u043f\u0430 2021 \u0433\u043e\u0434. \u041c\u044b \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0441\u043a\u0430\u043d\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0456 21511 \u0434\u0430\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0430\u045e \u0437 \u0434\u0430\u043f\u0430\u043c\u043e\u0433\u0430\u0439 \u0441\u0435\u043c\u0430\u043d\u0442\u044b\u0447\u043d\u0430\u0433\u0430 \u043f\u043e\u0448\u0443\u043a\u0443, \u0432\u044b\u043d\u044f\u043b\u0456 715 \u043a\u0430\u043d\u043a\u0440\u044d\u0442\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0442\u044b\u0447\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0441\u0446\u0432\u044f\u0440\u0434\u0436\u044d\u043d\u043d\u044f\u045e \u0456 \u0430\u0446\u0430\u043d\u0456\u043b\u0456 157 \u043d\u0430\u0439\u0431\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0448 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0432\u044f\u0440\u0430\u0435\u043c\u044b\u0445 \u0437 \u0456\u0445 \u043f\u0430 \u0431\u044f\u0433\u0443\u0447\u0430\u0439 \u0441\u0456\u0442\u0443\u0430\u0446\u044b\u0456.\r\n\r\n\u0412\u044b\u043d\u0456\u043a: \u0430\u0433\u0443\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430\u044f \u0434\u0430\u043a\u043b\u0430\u0434\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044c 65,0<\/strong> \u0437 100<\/strong>.\r\n\r\n

\u0428\u0442\u043e \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u0430\u0437\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0456<\/H3>\r\n\u0423 \u0433\u0430\u0434\u044b \u043f\u0430\u043c\u0456\u0436 \u0441\u043f\u0440\u044d\u0447\u043d\u044b\u043c\u0456 \u0432\u044b\u0431\u0430\u0440\u0430\u043c\u0456 2006 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u0456 \u043a\u0430\u0442\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u0444\u0456\u0447\u043d\u044b\u043c \u0440\u0430\u0437\u0433\u0440\u043e\u043c\u0430\u043c \u0441\u043d\u0435\u0436\u043d\u044f 2010-\u0433\u0430 \u0441\u044f\u0440\u043e\u0434 \u0437\u0430\u0445\u043e\u0434\u043d\u0456\u0445 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0442\u044b\u043a\u0430\u045e \u0441\u043a\u043b\u0430\u045e\u0441\u044f \u0445\u0430\u0440\u0430\u043a\u0442\u044d\u0440\u043d\u044b \u043a\u0430\u043d\u0441\u044d\u043d\u0441\u0443\u0441. \u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u044c \u043d\u0430\u0440\u044d\u0448\u0446\u0435 \u0433\u0430\u0442\u043e\u0432\u0430 \u0434\u0430 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0430\u043c\u0435\u043d. \u041b\u0443\u043a\u0430\u0448\u044d\u043d\u043a\u0430, \u044f\u043a\u0456 \u0437\u043d\u0430\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0437\u0456\u0446\u0446\u0430 \u043f\u0430\u0434 \u044d\u043a\u0430\u043d\u0430\u043c\u0456\u0447\u043d\u044b\u043c \u0446\u0456\u0441\u043a\u0430\u043c \u0456 \u045e \u043f\u0435\u0440\u044b\u044f\u0434\u044b\u0447\u043d\u044b\u043c \u043a\u0430\u043d\u0444\u043b\u0456\u043a\u0446\u0435 \u0437 \u041c\u0430\u0441\u043a\u0432\u043e\u0439, \u0431\u0443\u0434\u0437\u0435 \u0432\u044b\u043c\u0443\u0448\u0430\u043d\u044b \u043b\u0456\u0431\u0435\u0440\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0437\u0430\u0432\u0430\u0446\u0446\u0430. \"\u0423\u0441\u0445\u043e\u0434\u043d\u044f\u0435 \u043f\u0430\u0440\u0442\u043d\u0451\u0440\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0430\" \u0415\u0421 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u043f\u0430\u043d\u0443\u0435 \u0441\u0442\u044b\u043c\u0443\u043b\u044b. \u041d\u043e\u0432\u0430\u0435 \u043f\u0430\u043a\u0430\u043b\u0435\u043d\u043d\u0435 \u0431\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0430\u045e, 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\u0432\u044b\u043c\u0443\u0448\u0430\u043d\u0430 \u0434\u0430\u043b\u0443\u0447\u044b\u0446\u0446\u0430 \u0434\u0430 \u0420\u0430\u0441\u0456\u0456 \u043d\u0430 \u0440\u0430\u0441\u0456\u0439\u0441\u043a\u0456\u0445 \u0443\u043c\u043e\u0432\u0430\u0445\" (75\/100): \u0437\u0430\u043b\u0435\u0436\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044c \u0443\u0437\u043c\u0430\u0446\u043d\u0456\u043b\u0430\u0441\u044f, \u0430\u043b\u0435 \u0444\u0430\u0440\u043c\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430\u044f \u0430\u043d\u044d\u043a\u0441\u0456\u044f \u043d\u0435 \u0430\u0434\u0431\u044b\u043b\u0430\u0441\u044f. \"\u0420\u043e\u0441\u0442 \u043a\u043e\u0448\u0442\u0430\u045e \u043d\u0430 \u0433\u0430\u0437 \u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e\u0440\u044b\u0446\u044c \u0441\u0443\u0440'\u0451\u0437\u043d\u044b \u0432\u044b\u043a\u043b\u0456\u043a\" (70\/100): \u043a\u0440\u044b\u0437\u0456\u0441 2011 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u0437\u0434\u0430\u0440\u044b\u045e\u0441\u044f, \u0430\u043b\u0435 \u0440\u044d\u0436\u044b\u043c \u0432\u044b\u0436\u044b\u045e.\r\n\r\n\u0410\u0431\u0432\u0435\u0440\u0433\u043d\u0443\u0442\u044b\u044f \u0430\u0431'\u044f\u0434\u043d\u043e\u045e\u0432\u0430\u0435 \u0432\u0435\u0440\u0430 \u045e \u043d\u0435\u043f\u0430\u0437\u0431\u0435\u0436\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044c \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0430\u043c\u0435\u043d. \"2010 \u0433\u043e\u0434 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u043d\u0435 \u0430\u043f\u043e\u0448\u043d\u0456\u043c \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430\u043c \u0434\u044b\u043a\u0442\u0430\u0442\u0443\u0440\u044b\" (5\/100). \"\u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u044c \u0443\u0432\u043e\u0439\u0434\u0437\u0435 \u045e \u0442\u043e\u043f-30 \u043a\u0440\u0430\u0456\u043d \u043f\u0430 \u0434\u0437\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0432\u044b\u043c \u043a\u043b\u0456\u043c\u0430\u0446\u0435\" (5\/100). \"\u041b\u0443\u043a\u0430\u0448\u044d\u043d\u043a\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0446\u044f\u0433\u043d\u0435 \u0440\u0443\u043a\u0443 \u045e\u043c\u0435\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0430\u0439 \u0430\u043f\u0430\u0437\u0456\u0446\u044b\u0456 \u043f\u0430\u0441\u043b\u044f \u043c\u0456\u0436\u043d\u0430\u0440\u043e\u0434\u043d\u0430\u0433\u0430 \u0430\u0441\u0443\u0434\u0436\u044d\u043d\u043d\u044f\" (5\/100). \"\u0412\u0423\u041f \u0432\u044b\u0440\u0430\u0441\u0446\u0435 \u043d\u0430 11-13%\" (15\/100, \u043a\u0440\u044b\u043d\u0456\u0446\u0430: Jamestown Foundation).\r\n\r\n\u0427\u0430\u0442\u044b\u0440\u044b \u0456\u043d\u0432\u0435\u0440\u0442\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043d\u044b\u044f: \u0430\u0434\u0431\u044b\u043b\u043e\u0441\u044f \u043f\u0440\u0430\u043c\u0430 \u0441\u0443\u043f\u0440\u0430\u0446\u044c\u043b\u0435\u0433\u043b\u0430\u0435. \"\u041b\u0443\u043a\u0430\u0448\u044d\u043d\u043a\u0430 \u043c\u043e\u0433 \u0431\u044b \u0440\u0430\u0434\u044b\u043a\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430 \u043f\u0430\u0432\u044f\u0440\u043d\u0443\u0446\u044c \u0434\u0430 \u0415\u0421\" (5\/100). \"\u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u044c \u043c\u043e\u0436\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u044b\u0442\u0440\u044b\u043c\u043b\u0456\u0432\u0430\u0446\u0446\u0430 \u045e\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0456\u043d\u0441\u043a\u0430\u0439 \u043c\u0430\u0434\u044d\u043b\u0456\" (5\/100). \"\u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u044c \u043f\u0430\u0432\u0456\u043d\u043d\u0430 \u0456\u043d\u0442\u044d\u0433\u0440\u0430\u0432\u0430\u0446\u0446\u0430 \u045e \u0441\u0443\u0441\u0432\u0435\u0442\u043d\u0443\u044e \u044d\u043a\u0430\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0456\u043a\u0443 \u0456 \u0440\u0443\u0445\u0430\u0446\u0446\u0430 \u0434\u0430 \u0415\u045e\u0440\u043e\u043f\u044b\" (10\/100). \"\u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u044c \u0432\u044b\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0437\u0456\u0446\u044c \u0437 \u0456\u0437\u0430\u043b\u044f\u0446\u044b\u0456 \u0456 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0446\u044f\u0433\u043d\u0435 \u0434\u044b\u044f\u043b\u043e\u0433 \u0437 \u0415\u0421\" (15\/100). \u0423\u0441\u0435 \u0447\u0430\u0442\u044b\u0440\u044b \u0434\u0430\u0442\u044b\u0447\u044b\u043b\u0456\u0441\u044f \u0435\u045e\u0440\u0430\u043f\u0435\u0439\u0441\u043a\u0430\u0433\u0430 \u0432\u0435\u043a\u0442\u0430\u0440\u0430. \u041a\u043e\u0436\u043d\u044b \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0434\u043a\u0430\u0437\u0432\u0430\u045e \u0437\u0431\u043b\u0456\u0436\u044d\u043d\u043d\u0435. \u041a\u043e\u0436\u043d\u044b \u045e\u0431\u0430\u0447\u044b\u045e \u0430\u0434\u0432\u0430\u0440\u043e\u0442\u043d\u0430\u0435.\r\n\r\n

\u0414\u0430\u043a\u043b\u0430\u0434\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044c \u043f\u0430 \u0434\u0430\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0430\u0445<\/H3>\r\n\u0414\u0430\u043a\u043b\u0430\u0434\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044c \u0440\u0430\u0434\u044b\u043a\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430 \u0430\u0434\u0440\u043e\u0437\u043d\u0456\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0430\u0441\u044f \u043f\u0430 \u0442\u044d\u043c\u0430\u0445, \u0456 \u0433\u044d\u0442\u0430\u044f \u0437\u0430\u043a\u0430\u043d\u0430\u043c\u0435\u0440\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044c \u0437'\u044f\u045e\u043b\u044f\u0435\u0446\u0446\u0430 \u0446\u044d\u043d\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u043c \u0432\u044b\u043d\u0456\u043a\u0430\u043c \u0434\u0430\u0441\u043b\u0435\u0434\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044f.\r\n\r\n\"\"\r\n
\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\u0414\u0430\u043c\u0435\u043d<\/th>\r\n\u0414\u0430\u043a\u043b\u0430\u0434\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044c<\/th>\r\n\u0425\u0430\u0440\u0430\u043a\u0442\u0430\u0440\u044b\u0441\u0442\u044b\u043a\u0430<\/th>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/thead>\r\n
\u041c\u0435\u0434\u044b\u044f\/\u0456\u043d\u0444\u0430\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0446\u044b\u044f<\/td>\r\n84,6%<\/td>\r\n\u041f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u044b \u0430\u0431 \u043a\u0430\u043d\u0442\u0440\u043e\u043b\u0456 \u043d\u0430\u0434 \u0456\u043d\u0442\u044d\u0440\u043d\u044d\u0442\u0430\u043c \u0456 \u043f\u0440\u044d\u0441\u0430\u0439<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
\u0411\u044f\u0441\u043f\u0435\u043a\u0430<\/td>\r\n82,4%<\/td>\r\n\u041f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u044b \u0430\u0431 \u0437\u0434\u043e\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u0456 \u0441\u0456\u043b\u0430\u0432\u0456\u043a\u043e\u045e \u0434\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u044b\u0433\u043d\u0435\u0447\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044f<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
\u0413\u0440\u0430\u043c\u0430\u0434\u0437\u044f\u043d\u0441\u043a\u0430\u044f \u0441\u0443\u043f\u043e\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044c<\/td>\r\n72,8%<\/td>\r\n\u041f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u044b \u0430\u0431 \u0446\u0456\u0441\u043a\u0443 \u043d\u0430 \u0430\u0440\u0433\u0430\u043d\u0456\u0437\u0430\u0446\u044b\u0456<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
\u0422\u044d\u0445\u043d\u0430\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0456\u0456<\/td>\r\n69,5%<\/td>\r\n\u0406\u043d\u0444\u0440\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0443\u043a\u0442\u0443\u0440\u0430 \u0434\u0430\u043a\u043b\u0430\u0434\u043d\u0430, \u0440\u044d\u0439\u0442\u044b\u043d\u0433\u0456 \u043d\u044f\u043c\u0430<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
\u0421\u0430\u0446\u044b\u044f\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430\u044f \u0441\u0444\u0435\u0440\u0430<\/td>\r\n60,0%<\/td>\r\n\u0410\u0431\u043c\u0435\u0436\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0430\u044f \u0432\u044b\u0431\u0430\u0440\u043a\u0430 (3 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u044b)<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
\u0413\u0435\u0430\u043f\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0442\u044b\u043a\u0430<\/td>\r\n54,5%<\/td>\r\n\u0421\u0456\u0441\u0442\u044d\u043c\u043d\u0430\u044f \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0430\u0430\u0446\u044d\u043d\u043a\u0430 \u0435\u045e\u0440\u0430\u043f\u0435\u0439\u0441\u043a\u0430\u0433\u0430 \u0432\u0435\u043a\u0442\u0430\u0440\u0430<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
\u041f\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0442\u044b\u043a\u0430<\/td>\r\n54,4%<\/td>\r\n\u0412\u044b\u0431\u0430\u0440\u044b \u0434\u0430\u043a\u043b\u0430\u0434\u043d\u0430, \u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0437\u0456\u0442 \u043d\u044f\u043c\u0430<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
\u042d\u043a\u0430\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0456\u043a\u0430<\/td>\r\n46,2%<\/td>\r\n\u041f\u0440\u0430\u043f\u0430\u0433\u0430\u043d\u0434\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u044b\u043c\u0430\u043b\u0430\u0441\u044f \u0437\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n<\/div>\r\n\u0427\u044b\u043c \u0431\u043b\u0456\u0436\u044d\u0439 \u0434\u0430 \u043c\u0435\u0445\u0430\u043d\u0456\u043a\u0456 \u0430\u045e\u0442\u0430\u0440\u044b\u0442\u0430\u0440\u044b\u0437\u043c\u0443, \u0442\u044b\u043c \u0431\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0448 \u0434\u0430\u043a\u043b\u0430\u0434\u043d\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437. \u0427\u044b\u043c \u0431\u043b\u0456\u0436\u044d\u0439 \u0434\u0430 \u0447\u0430\u043a\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044f\u045e \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0430\u043c\u0435\u043d, \u0442\u044b\u043c \u0433\u043e\u0440\u0448.\r\n\r\n

\u0425\u0442\u043e \u043f\u0430\u043c\u044b\u043b\u044f\u045e\u0441\u044f: \u0440\u044d\u0439\u0442\u044b\u043d\u0433 \u043a\u0440\u044b\u043d\u0456\u0446<\/H3>\r\n\u0410\u0442\u0440\u044b\u0431\u0443\u0446\u044b\u044f \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0430\u045e \u0434\u0430 \u043a\u0440\u044b\u043d\u0456\u0446 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0437 \u0432\u044b\u043c\u0430\u043d\u043d\u0435 \u0437 \u0442\u044d\u043a\u0441\u0442\u0430\u045e \u0431\u0430\u0437\u044b \u0434\u0430\u0434\u0437\u0435\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0432\u044b\u044f\u0432\u0456\u043b\u0430 \u0442\u0440\u044b \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0442\u044b\u0447\u043d\u044b\u044f \u0448\u043a\u043e\u043b\u044b \u0437 \u0440\u043e\u0437\u043d\u0430\u0439 \u0434\u0430\u043a\u043b\u0430\u0434\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044e.\r\n
\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\u041a\u0440\u044b\u043d\u0456\u0446\u0430<\/th>\r\n\u0414\u0430\u043a\u043b\u0430\u0434\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044c<\/th>\r\n\u041f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0430\u045e<\/th>\r\n\u0428\u043a\u043e\u043b\u0430<\/th>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/thead>\r\n
Belapan<\/td>\r\n91,0<\/td>\r\n3<\/td>\r\n\u0414\u0430\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0430\u044f<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
\u0420\u044d\u043f\u0430\u0440\u0446\u0451\u0440\u044b \u0431\u0435\u0437 \u043c\u0435\u0436\u0430\u045e (RSF)<\/td>\r\n88,3<\/td>\r\n12<\/td>\r\n\u0414\u0430\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0430\u044f<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Reuters<\/td>\r\n86,5<\/td>\r\n2<\/td>\r\n\u0414\u0430\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0430\u044f<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Charter97<\/td>\r\n72,5<\/td>\r\n4<\/td>\r\n\u0410\u043f\u0430\u0437\u0456\u0446\u044b\u0439\u043d\u0430\u044f<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
\u0410\u0411\u0421\u0415<\/td>\r\n57,5<\/td>\r\n4<\/td>\r\n\u0414\u044b\u043f\u043b\u0430\u043c\u0430\u0442\u044b\u0447\u043d\u0430\u044f<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
\u0411\u0456-\u0411\u0456-\u0421\u0456<\/td>\r\n57,0<\/td>\r\n5<\/td>\r\n\u0406\u043d\u0441\u0442\u044b\u0442\u0443\u0446\u044b\u0439\u043d\u0430\u044f<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
\u0420\u0430\u0434\u044b\u0451 \u0421\u0432\u0430\u0431\u043e\u0434\u0430<\/td>\r\n49,7<\/td>\r\n6<\/td>\r\n\u0422\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0437\u0456\u0442\u0430\u043b\u0430\u0433\u0456\u0447\u043d\u0430\u044f<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Jamestown Foundation<\/td>\r\n18,3<\/td>\r\n3<\/td>\r\n\u0422\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0437\u0456\u0442\u0430\u043b\u0430\u0433\u0456\u0447\u043d\u0430\u044f<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n<\/div>\r\n\u0414\u0430\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0430\u044f \u0448\u043a\u043e\u043b\u0430 (RSF, Belapan, Reuters) \u0444\u0456\u043a\u0441\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0430, \u0448\u0442\u043e \u0440\u044d\u0436\u044b\u043c \u0440\u043e\u0431\u0456\u0446\u044c, \u043d\u0435 \u0456\u043d\u0442\u044d\u0440\u043f\u0440\u044d\u0442\u0443\u044e\u0447\u044b \u044f\u0433\u043e \u043d\u0430\u043c\u0435\u0440\u044b \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0437 \u043f\u0440\u044b\u0437\u043c\u0443 \u0434\u044d\u043c\u0430\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0442\u044b\u0437\u0430\u0446\u044b\u0456. \u0414\u0430\u043a\u043b\u0430\u0434\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044c 86-91%.\r\n\r\n\u0414\u044b\u043f\u043b\u0430\u043c\u0430\u0442\u044b\u0447\u043d\u0430-\u0456\u043d\u0441\u0442\u044b\u0442\u0443\u0446\u044b\u044f\u043d\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430\u044f \u0448\u043a\u043e\u043b\u0430 (\u0410\u0411\u0421\u0415, \u0411\u0456-\u0411\u0456-\u0421\u0456) \u0431\u0430\u043b\u0430\u043d\u0441\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0430 \u043f\u0430\u043c\u0456\u0436 \u0440\u044d\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0437\u043c\u0430\u043c \u0456 \u043d\u0430\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0442\u044b\u045e\u043d\u044b\u043c\u0456 \u0447\u0430\u043a\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044f\u043c\u0456. \u0414\u0430\u043a\u043b\u0430\u0434\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044c 57-58%.\r\n\r\n\u0422\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0437\u0456\u0442\u0430\u043b\u0430\u0433\u0456\u0447\u043d\u0430\u044f \u0448\u043a\u043e\u043b\u0430 (Jamestown Foundation, \u0420\u0430\u0434\u044b\u0451 \u0421\u0432\u0430\u0431\u043e\u0434\u0430) \u0443\u0436\u044b\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0430 \u043c\u0430\u0434\u044d\u043b\u0456 \u0434\u044d\u043c\u0430\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0442\u044b\u0447\u043d\u0430\u0433\u0430 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0430\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0443. \u0414\u0430\u043a\u043b\u0430\u0434\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044c 18-50%.\r\n\r\n\u0420\u0430\u0437\u0440\u044b\u045e \u0443 70 \u043f\u0443\u043d\u043a\u0442\u0430\u045e \u043f\u0430\u043c\u0456\u0436 RSF \u0456 Jamestown Foundation: \u0430\u0434\u043d\u0430 \u043b\u0456\u0447\u0431\u0430, \u044f\u043a\u0430\u044f \u0442\u043b\u0443\u043c\u0430\u0447\u044b\u0446\u044c 20 \u0433\u0430\u0434\u043e\u045e \u043f\u0430\u043c\u044b\u043b\u043a\u043e\u0432\u0430\u0433\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u0430\u0437\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044f. \u0427\u044b\u043c \u0434\u0430\u043b\u0435\u0439 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0442\u044b\u043a \u0430\u0434 \u0444\u0430\u043a\u0442\u0430\u045e \u0456 \u0431\u043b\u0456\u0436\u044d\u0439 \u0434\u0430 \u0442\u044d\u043e\u0440\u044b\u0456 \u0434\u044d\u043c\u0430\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0442\u044b\u0447\u043d\u0430\u0433\u0430 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0430\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0443, \u0442\u044b\u043c \u0433\u043e\u0440\u0448\u044b \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437.\r\n\r\n

\u042f\u043a\u0456\u044f \u0441\u043b\u043e\u0432\u044b \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0434\u043a\u0430\u0437\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0456 \u043f\u0430\u043c\u044b\u043b\u043a\u0443<\/H3>\r\n\u041b\u0435\u043a\u0441\u0456\u0447\u043d\u044b \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0437 157 \u0430\u0446\u044d\u043d\u0435\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0430\u045e (\u0442\u043e\u043b\u044c\u043a\u0456 \u0442\u044d\u043a\u0441\u0442 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0443, \u0431\u0435\u0437 \u0440\u044d\u0442\u0440\u0430\u0441\u043f\u0435\u043a\u0442\u044b\u045e\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0442\u043b\u0443\u043c\u0430\u0447\u044d\u043d\u043d\u044f\u045e) \u0432\u044b\u044f\u0432\u0456\u045e \u0443\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0439\u043b\u0456\u0432\u0443\u044e \u043a\u0430\u0440\u044d\u043b\u044f\u0446\u044b\u044e \u043f\u0430\u043c\u0456\u0436 \u0441\u043b\u043e\u0432\u0430\u045e\u0436\u044b\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043d\u0435\u043c \u0456 \u0434\u0430\u043a\u043b\u0430\u0434\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044e.\r\n\r\n\u0421\u043b\u043e\u0432\u044b, \u044f\u043a\u0456\u044f \u0441\u0443\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043a\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0441\u044f \u0432\u044b\u043a\u043b\u044e\u0447\u043d\u0430 \u045e \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0430\u0445: \"potential,\" \"become,\" \"top,\" \"world,\" \"protest,\" \"rise,\" \"must,\" \"reform,\" \"europe.\" \u0421\u043b\u043e\u0432\u044b, \u044f\u043a\u0456\u044f \u0441\u0443\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043a\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0441\u044f \u0432\u044b\u043a\u043b\u044e\u0447\u043d\u0430 \u045e \u0434\u0430\u043a\u043b\u0430\u0434\u043d\u044b\u0445: \"independent,\" \"media,\" \"elections,\" \"authorities,\" \"gas,\" \"presidential.\"\r\n\r\n\u041f\u0440\u044b \u0433\u0440\u0443\u043f\u043e\u045e\u0446\u044b \u045e \u043d\u0430\u0440\u0430\u0442\u044b\u045e\u043d\u044b\u044f \u043a\u043b\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0430\u0440\u044b \u043a\u0430\u0440\u0446\u0456\u043d\u0430 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u043b\u0430 \u044f\u0448\u0447\u044d \u0431\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0448 \u0437\u0440\u0430\u0437\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0439. \u041a\u043b\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0430\u0440 \u0430\u045e\u0442\u0430\u0440\u044b\u0442\u0430\u0440\u043d\u0430\u0439 \u043a\u0430\u043d\u0441\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0434\u0430\u0446\u044b\u0456 (\u043a\u0430\u043d\u0442\u0440\u043e\u043b\u044c, \u0446\u0456\u0441\u043a, \u0430\u0431\u043c\u0435\u0436\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043d\u0456, \u0441\u0430\u0447\u044d\u043d\u043d\u0435, \u0437\u0430\u043b\u0435\u0436\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044c): 6 \u0434\u0430\u043a\u043b\u0430\u0434\u043d\u044b\u0445, 0 \u043f\u0430\u043c\u044b\u043b\u043a\u043e\u0432\u044b\u0445. 100% \u0434\u0430\u043a\u043b\u0430\u0434\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u0456. \u041a\u043b\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0430\u0440 \u0435\u045e\u0440\u0430\u043f\u0435\u0439\u0441\u043a\u0430\u0433\u0430 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0430\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0443 (\u0440\u044d\u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u044b, \u0456\u043d\u0442\u044d\u0433\u0440\u0430\u0446\u044b\u044f, \u0431\u0456\u0437\u043d\u0435\u0441, \u0430\u0434\u043a\u0440\u044b\u0442\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044c): 3 \u0434\u0430\u043a\u043b\u0430\u0434\u043d\u044b\u044f, 4 \u043f\u0430\u043c\u044b\u043b\u043a\u043e\u0432\u044b\u044f. 43 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0446\u044d\u043d\u0442\u044b.\r\n\r\n\u0421\u043b\u043e\u0432\u0430 \"stability\"<\/strong> \u0437'\u044f\u045e\u043b\u044f\u0435\u0446\u0446\u0430 \u0442\u043e\u043b\u044c\u043a\u0456 \u045e \u0434\u0430\u043a\u043b\u0430\u0434\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0430\u0445. \u041a\u0430\u043b\u0456 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0442\u044b\u043a\u0456 \u0432\u044b\u043a\u0430\u0440\u044b\u0441\u0442\u043e\u045e\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0456 \u044f\u0433\u043e \u0434\u043b\u044f \u0430\u043f\u0456\u0441\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044f \u0456\u043d\u0441\u0442\u044b\u0442\u0443\u0446\u044b\u0439\u043d\u0430\u0439 \u0443\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0439\u043b\u0456\u0432\u0430\u0441\u0446\u0456 \u0430\u045e\u0442\u0430\u0440\u044b\u0442\u0430\u0440\u044b\u0437\u043c\u0443, \u044f\u043d\u044b \u043c\u0435\u043b\u0456 \u0440\u0430\u0446\u044b\u044e. \u0420\u044d\u0436\u044b\u043c\u043d\u0430\u044f \u043f\u0440\u0430\u043f\u0430\u0433\u0430\u043d\u0434\u0430 \"\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u045e\u043a\u0430 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0431\u0456\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u0456\" \u0432\u044b\u043a\u0430\u0440\u044b\u0441\u0442\u043e\u045e\u0432\u0430\u0435 \u0442\u043e\u0435 \u0436 \u0441\u043b\u043e\u0432\u0430, \u0430\u043b\u0435 \u0437 \u0441\u0443\u043f\u0440\u0430\u0446\u044c\u043b\u0435\u0433\u043b\u044b\u043c \u0437\u043c\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0430\u043c: \u043d\u0435 \u0434\u044b\u044f\u0433\u043d\u0430\u0437, \u0430 \u0440\u044d\u043a\u043b\u0430\u043c\u043d\u044b \u0441\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0430\u043d. \u0414\u0437\u044f\u0440\u0436\u0430\u045e\u043d\u044b\u044f \u043c\u0435\u0434\u044b\u0456 \u045e\u0441\u0435 \u0433\u044d\u0442\u044b\u044f \u0433\u0430\u0434\u044b \u0441\u0456\u0441\u0442\u044d\u043c\u0430\u0442\u044b\u0447\u043d\u0430 \u045e\u0437\u043c\u0430\u0446\u043d\u044f\u043b\u0456 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0431\u043b\u0435\u043c\u044b \u0434\u044d\u043c\u0430\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0442\u044b\u0447\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u043a\u0440\u0430\u0456\u043d \u0456 \u043f\u0430\u0434\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0456 \u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u044c \u044f\u043a \u0430\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u0432\u043e\u043a \u043f\u0430\u0440\u0430\u0434\u043a\u0443 \u045e \"\u043c\u043e\u0440\u044b \u0445\u0430\u043e\u0441\u0443.\" \u0421\u0451\u043d\u043d\u044f \u0433\u044d\u0442\u044b \u043d\u0430\u0440\u0430\u0442\u044b\u045e \u0443\u0432\u0430\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0437\u0456\u0446\u044c \u0443 \u0430\u0434\u043c\u0435\u0442\u043d\u0443\u044e \u0441\u0443\u043f\u044f\u0440\u044d\u0447\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044c \u0437 \u043d\u0430\u0440\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0430\u044e\u0447\u0430\u0439 \u0440\u044b\u0442\u043e\u0440\u044b\u043a\u0430\u0439 \u0430\u0431 \u0456\u0434\u044d\u0430\u043b\u0430\u0433\u0456\u0447\u043d\u0430\u0439 \u0432\u0430\u0439\u043d\u0435: \u0440\u044d\u0436\u044b\u043c \u0430\u0434\u043d\u0430\u0447\u0430\u0441\u043e\u0432\u0430 \u043f\u0430\u0432\u0435\u0434\u0430\u043c\u043b\u044f\u0435 \u043d\u0430\u0441\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0456\u0446\u0442\u0432\u0443, \u0448\u0442\u043e \u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u044c \u0443\u043d\u0456\u043a\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0431\u0456\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430\u044f \u0456 \u0448\u0442\u043e \u044f\u043d\u0430 \u0437\u043d\u0430\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0437\u0456\u0446\u0446\u0430 \u045e \u0430\u0431\u043b\u043e\u0437\u0435, \u0430 \u0441\u0430\u043d\u043a\u0446\u044b\u0456, \u0433\u044d\u0442\u0430 \u044d\u043a\u0437\u0456\u0441\u0442\u044d\u043d\u0446\u044b\u0439\u043d\u0430\u044f \u043f\u0430\u0433\u0440\u043e\u0437\u0430.\r\n\r\n\u041c\u043e\u0432\u0430 \u0434\u044d\u043c\u0430\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0442\u044b\u0447\u043d\u0430\u0433\u0430 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0430\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0443 (\"transition,\" \"reform,\" \"democratization,\" \"opening,\" \"crossroads\") \u0441\u0443\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043a\u0430\u043b\u0430\u0441\u044f \u045e \u043f\u0430\u043c\u044b\u043b\u043a\u043e\u0432\u044b\u0445 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0430\u0445 \u0443 1,6 \u0440\u0430\u0437\u044b \u0447\u0430\u0441\u0446\u0435\u0439. \u0427\u044b\u043c \u0431\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0448 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0442\u044b\u043a \u0432\u044b\u043a\u0430\u0440\u044b\u0441\u0442\u043e\u045e\u0432\u0430\u045e \u0433\u044d\u0442\u044b \u043b\u0435\u043a\u0441\u0456\u043a\u043e\u043d, \u0442\u044b\u043c \u0433\u043e\u0440\u0448\u044b\u043c \u0431\u044b\u045e \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437. \u0427\u044b\u043c \u0431\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0448 \u043c\u043e\u0432\u0443 \u0430\u043f\u0456\u0441\u0432\u0430\u045e\r\n\u0441\u0456\u0441\u0442\u044d\u043c\u0443 \u044f\u043a \u044f\u043d\u0430 \u0451\u0441\u0446\u044c, \u0430 \u043d\u0435 \u044f\u043a \u044f\u043d\u0430 \u043f\u0430\u0432\u0456\u043d\u043d\u0430 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0446\u044c, \u0442\u044b\u043c \u0431\u043b\u0456\u0436\u044d\u0439 \u0434\u0430 \u0440\u044d\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u0456.\r\n\r\n

\u041f\u0430\u0440\u0430\u0434\u043e\u043a\u0441 \u0443\u043f\u044d\u045e\u043d\u0435\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u0456<\/H3>\r\n\u0413\u0456\u043f\u043e\u0442\u044d\u0437\u0430 \u0431\u044b\u043b\u0430: \u043d\u0430\u0439\u0431\u043e\u043b\u0435\u0439 \u0443\u043f\u044d\u045e\u043d\u0435\u043d\u044b\u044f \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u044b \u0430\u043f\u044b\u043d\u0443\u0446\u0446\u0430 \u0441\u0430\u043c\u044b\u043c\u0456 \u043f\u0430\u043c\u044b\u043b\u043a\u043e\u0432\u044b\u043c\u0456. \u0414\u0430\u043d\u044b\u044f \u043f\u0430\u043a\u0430\u0437\u0430\u043b\u0456 \u0430\u0434\u0432\u0430\u0440\u043e\u0442\u043d\u0430\u0435.\r\n
\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\u0423\u0437\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0435\u043d\u044c \u0443\u043f\u044d\u045e\u043d\u0435\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u0456<\/th>\r\n\u0421\u044f\u0440\u044d\u0434\u043d\u044f\u044f \u0434\u0430\u043a\u043b\u0430\u0434\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044c<\/th>\r\n\u041f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0430\u045e<\/th>\r\n\u041a\u0430\u0442\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u0444\u0456\u0447\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0430\u045e<\/th>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/thead>\r\n
\u0412\u044b\u0441\u043e\u043a\u0430\u044f<\/td>\r\n78,7<\/td>\r\n60<\/td>\r\n2<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
\u0421\u044f\u0440\u044d\u0434\u043d\u044f\u044f<\/td>\r\n47,5<\/td>\r\n34<\/td>\r\n7<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
\u0410\u0441\u0446\u044f\u0440\u043e\u0436\u043d\u0430\u044f<\/td>\r\n44,3<\/td>\r\n10<\/td>\r\n1<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n<\/div>\r\n

\u0412\u044b\u0441\u043e\u043a\u0430\u045e\u043f\u044d\u045e\u043d\u0435\u043d\u044b\u044f \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u044b \u0431\u044b\u043b\u0456 \u045e\u043f\u044d\u045e\u043d\u0435\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044e \u045e \u0430\u045e\u0442\u0430\u0440\u044b\u0442\u0430\u0440\u043d\u0430\u0439 \u043c\u0435\u0445\u0430\u043d\u0456\u0446\u044b: \"\u041b\u0443\u043a\u0430\u0448\u044d\u043d\u043a\u0430 \u0441\u0430\u043f\u0440\u0430\u045e\u0434\u044b \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0430\u043c\u043e\u0436\u0430,\" \"\u0443\u043b\u0430\u0434\u044b \u0441\u0430\u043f\u0440\u0430\u045e\u0434\u044b \u043f\u0430\u0434\u0430\u0432\u044f\u0446\u044c,\" \"\u043c\u0435\u0434\u044b\u044f \u0441\u0430\u043f\u0440\u0430\u045e\u0434\u044b \u0430\u0431\u043c\u044f\u0436\u0443\u044e\u0446\u044c.\" \u0410\u045e\u0442\u0430\u0440\u044b \u0431\u044b\u043b\u0456 \u045e\u043f\u044d\u045e\u043d\u0435\u043d\u044b\u044f \u045e \u043d\u0435\u0433\u0430\u0442\u044b\u045e\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0437\u044b\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0430\u0445 \u0456 \u043c\u0435\u043b\u0456 \u0440\u0430\u0446\u044b\u044e. \u0421\u044f\u0440\u044d\u0434\u043d\u0435-\u045e\u043f\u044d\u045e\u043d\u0435\u043d\u044b\u044f \u0456 \u0430\u0441\u0446\u044f\u0440\u043e\u0436\u043d\u044b\u044f \u0431\u044b\u043b\u0456 \u043d\u044f\u045e\u043f\u044d\u045e\u043d\u0435\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044e \u045e \u043f\u0430\u0437\u0456\u0442\u044b\u045e\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0441\u0446\u044d\u043d\u0430\u0440\u0430\u0445: \"\u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u044c \u043c\u043e\u0436\u0430 \u0440\u0443\u0448\u044b\u0446\u044c \u0434\u0430 \u0415\u0421,\" \"\u0440\u044d\u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u044b \u043c\u0430\u0433\u0447\u044b\u043c\u044b\u044f.\" \u0410\u045e\u0442\u0430\u0440\u044b \u0441\u0443\u043c\u043d\u044f\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0441\u044f, \u0456 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0432\u0456\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430, \u0430\u043b\u0435 \u043f\u0430 \u043d\u044f\u043f\u0440\u0430\u0432\u0456\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u043f\u0440\u044b\u0447\u044b\u043d\u0430\u0445: \u044f\u043d\u044b \u0434\u0430\u043f\u0443\u0441\u043a\u0430\u043b\u0456 \u0430\u0431\u043e\u0434\u0432\u0430 \u0437\u044b\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0443, \u0442\u0430\u0434\u044b \u044f\u043a \u0440\u044d\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044c \u0434\u0430\u043f\u0443\u0441\u043a\u0430\u043b\u0430 \u0442\u043e\u043b\u044c\u043a\u0456 \u0430\u0434\u0437\u0456\u043d.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

\u041d\u0435 \u0437\u0430\u0432\u044b\u0448\u0430\u043d\u0430\u044f \u0441\u0430\u043c\u0430\u045e\u043f\u044d\u045e\u043d\u0435\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044c, \u0430 \u0430\u0441\u0456\u043c\u0435\u0442\u0440\u044b\u0447\u043d\u0430\u044f \u043f\u044d\u045e\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044c: \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0442\u044b\u043a\u0456 \u0431\u044b\u043b\u0456 \u043a\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0431\u0440\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043d\u044b \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0432\u0456\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430 \u043a\u0430\u043b\u0456 \u043a\u0430\u0437\u0430\u043b\u0456 \u043f\u0440\u0430 \u0442\u043e\u0435, \u0448\u0442\u043e \u0440\u044d\u0436\u044b\u043c \u0437\u0440\u043e\u0431\u0456\u0446\u044c, \u0456 \u043d\u0435\u043a\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0431\u0440\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043d\u044b\u044f \u043a\u0430\u043b\u0456 \u043a\u0430\u0437\u0430\u043b\u0456 \u043f\u0440\u0430 \u0442\u043e\u0435, \u0448\u0442\u043e \u0440\u044d\u0436\u044b\u043c \u043c\u043e\u0436\u0430 \u0437\u043c\u044f\u043d\u0456\u0446\u0446\u0430.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

\u0427\u0430\u0433\u043e \u043d\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0434\u0431\u0430\u0447\u044b\u045e \u043d\u0456\u0445\u0442\u043e<\/H3>\r\n\u0417 12 \u043a\u043b\u044e\u0447\u0430\u0432\u044b\u0445 \u0440\u0430\u0437\u0432\u0456\u0446\u0446\u044f\u045e, \u044f\u043a\u0456\u044f \u0432\u044b\u0437\u043d\u0430\u0447\u044b\u043b\u0456 \u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u044c \u043f\u0430\u0441\u043b\u044f 2013 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430, \u043c\u044b \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0432\u0435\u0440\u044b\u043b\u0456 \u043d\u0430\u044f\u045e\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044c \u043a\u043e\u0436\u043d\u0430\u0433\u0430 \u045e \u043a\u043e\u0440\u043f\u0443\u0441\u0435 715 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0430\u045e. 10 \u0430\u043a\u0430\u0437\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0441\u044f \u043f\u043e\u045e\u043d\u044b\u044f \u0441\u044c\u043b\u044f\u043f\u044b\u043c\u0456 \u043f\u044f\u0442\u0430\u043c\u0456: \u043d\u0456\u0432\u043e\u0434\u043d\u0430\u0439 \u0437\u0433\u0430\u0434\u043a\u0456. \u0422\u0430\u0442\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430\u044f \u0440\u044d\u043f\u0440\u044d\u0441\u0456\u045e\u043d\u0430\u044f \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0430\u0431\u0443\u0434\u043e\u0432\u0430 \u0434\u0437\u044f\u0440\u0436\u0430\u0432\u044b. \u042d\u043c\u0456\u0433\u0440\u0430\u0446\u044b\u044f \u0431\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0448 \u0437\u0430 200 000 \u0447\u0430\u043b\u0430\u0432\u0435\u043a. 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\u0406\u043b\u0436\u044b\u0432\u044b\u044f \u0430\u0434\u043b\u0456\u0433\u0456<\/H3>\r\n\u0427\u0430\u0441\u0430\u0432\u044b \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0437 \u0432\u044b\u044f\u0432\u0456\u045e \u0442\u0440\u044b \u043f\u0435\u0440\u044b\u044f\u0434\u044b, \u043a\u0430\u043b\u0456 \u0430\u043f\u0442\u044b\u043c\u0456\u0437\u043c \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0430\u045e \u0431\u044b\u045e \u0432\u044b\u0441\u043e\u043a\u0456\u043c, \u0430 \u0456\u0445 \u0434\u0430\u043a\u043b\u0430\u0434\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044c \u043d\u0456\u0437\u043a\u0430\u0439.\r\n\r\n2007 \u0433\u043e\u0434:<\/strong> \u0433\u0430\u0437\u0430\u0432\u044b \u043a\u0430\u043d\u0444\u043b\u0456\u043a\u0442 \u0437 \u0420\u0430\u0441\u0456\u044f\u0439 \u0432\u044b\u043a\u043b\u0456\u043a\u0430\u045e \u0447\u0430\u043a\u0430\u043d\u043d\u0435 \u043f\u0430\u0432\u0430\u0440\u043e\u0442\u0443 \u0434\u0430 \u0417\u0430\u0445\u0430\u0434\u0443. \u0410\u043f\u0442\u044b\u043c\u0456\u0437\u043c 38,8%, \u0434\u0430\u043a\u043b\u0430\u0434\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044c 42,5 \u0437 100.\r\n\r\n2009 \u0433\u043e\u0434:<\/strong> \u0433\u043b\u0430\u0431\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b \u0444\u0456\u043d\u0430\u043d\u0441\u0430\u0432\u044b \u043a\u0440\u044b\u0437\u0456\u0441 \u0456 \"\u0430\u0434\u043b\u0456\u0433\u0430\" \u045e \u0430\u0434\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0456\u043d\u0430\u0445 \u0437 \u0415\u0421. \u041f\u0456\u043a \u0430\u043f\u0442\u044b\u043c\u0456\u0437\u043c\u0443: 47,8%, \u043c\u0456\u043d\u0456\u043c\u0443\u043c \u043f\u0435\u0441\u0456\u043c\u0456\u0437\u043c\u0443: 15,9%. \u0410\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0442\u044b\u043a\u0456 \u043c\u0430\u0441\u0430\u0432\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0434\u043a\u0430\u0437\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0456 \u0437\u0431\u043b\u0456\u0436\u044d\u043d\u043d\u0435 \u0437 \u0415\u045e\u0440\u043e\u043f\u0430\u0439. \u041f\u0440\u0430\u0437 \u0433\u043e\u0434 \u0430\u0434\u0431\u044b\u045e\u0441\u044f \u0440\u0430\u0437\u0433\u0440\u043e\u043c \u043d\u0430 \u043f\u043b\u044f\u0446\u044b.\r\n\r\n2010 \u0433\u043e\u0434:<\/strong> \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0430\u0434\u0432\u044b\u0431\u0430\u0440\u0447\u044b \u0446\u044b\u043a\u043b. 232 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u044b, \u0431\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0448 \u0447\u044b\u043c \u0443 \u043b\u044e\u0431\u044b \u0456\u043d\u0448\u044b \u0433\u043e\u0434. \u0410\u043f\u0442\u044b\u043c\u0456\u0437\u043c 42,7%, \u0434\u0430\u043a\u043b\u0430\u0434\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044c 44,7 \u0437 100.\r\n\r\n\u041a\u043e\u0436\u043d\u0430\u044f \u043f\u0430\u0434\u0437\u0435\u044f, \u044f\u043a\u0430\u044f \u0456\u043d\u0442\u044d\u0440\u043f\u0440\u044d\u0442\u0443\u0435\u0446\u0446\u0430 \u044f\u043a \"\u0430\u0434\u043a\u0440\u044b\u0446\u0446\u0451\" (\u0432\u044b\u0437\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0435\u043d\u043d\u0435 \u043f\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0442\u0432\u044f\u0437\u043d\u044f\u045e, \u0434\u044b\u044f\u043b\u043e\u0433 \u0437 \u0415\u0421, \u0433\u0430\u0437\u0430\u0432\u044b \u043a\u0430\u043d\u0444\u043b\u0456\u043a\u0442, \u044d\u043a\u0430\u043d\u0430\u043c\u0456\u0447\u043d\u044b \u043a\u0440\u044b\u0437\u0456\u0441), \u0441\u043f\u0430\u0440\u0430\u0434\u0436\u0430\u043b\u0430 \u0445\u0432\u0430\u043b\u044e \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0430\u045e \u0430\u0431 \u043b\u0456\u0431\u0435\u0440\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0437\u0430\u0446\u044b\u0456. \u0410\u043c\u0430\u043b\u044c \u0443\u0441\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043b\u044c\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0441\u044f. \u041f\u0430\u0441\u043b\u044f 2010 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u0430\u043f\u0442\u044b\u043c\u0456\u0437\u043c \u0443\u043f\u0430\u045e \u0434\u0430 28,1%, \u043f\u0435\u0441\u0456\u043c\u0456\u0437\u043c \u0432\u044b\u0440\u0430\u0441 \u0434\u0430 56,2%. \u0420\u044d\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044c \u0440\u0430\u0437\u0431\u0443\u0440\u044b\u043b\u0430 \u0456\u043b\u044e\u0437\u0456\u0456, \u0430\u043b\u0435 \u0442\u043e\u043b\u044c\u043a\u0456 \u0447\u0430\u0441\u043e\u0432\u0430: \u0443 2012-2013 \u0430\u043f\u0442\u044b\u043c\u0456\u0437\u043c \u0432\u044f\u0440\u043d\u0443\u045e\u0441\u044f \u045e \u0442\u044d\u0445\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0430\u0433\u0456\u0447\u043d\u044b\u043c \u0434\u0430\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0435.\r\n\r\n

\u0427\u0430\u043c\u0443 \u043f\u0430\u043c\u044b\u043b\u044f\u043b\u0456\u0441\u044f: \u043f\u044f\u0446\u044c \u0441\u0456\u0441\u0442\u044d\u043c\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0441\u043a\u0430\u0436\u044d\u043d\u043d\u044f\u045e<\/H3>\r\n\r\n\"\"\r\n\r\n\u0412\u0435\u0440\u0430 \u045e \u043d\u0435\u043f\u0430\u0437\u0431\u0435\u0436\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044c \u0434\u044d\u043c\u0430\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0442\u044b\u0437\u0430\u0446\u044b\u0456.<\/strong> \u0410\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0442\u044b\u043a\u0456 \u043b\u0456\u0447\u044b\u043b\u0456 \u0430\u045e\u0442\u0430\u0440\u044b\u0442\u0430\u0440\u044b\u0437\u043c \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0430\u0445\u043e\u0434\u043d\u0430\u0439 \u0444\u0430\u0437\u0430\u0439, \u0430 \u043d\u0435 \u045e\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0439\u043b\u0456\u0432\u044b\u043c \u0441\u0442\u0430\u043d\u0430\u043c. \u0423 2005 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0437\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u0430\u0437\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0430\u0441\u044f, \u0448\u0442\u043e \"\u0431\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u043a\u0430\u044f \u043c\u043e\u043b\u0430\u0434\u0437\u044c \u0431\u0443\u0434\u0437\u0435 \u0432\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043c\u0456 \u0430\u043a\u0442\u044b\u045e\u043d\u0430\u044f \u043d\u0430 \u0432\u044b\u0431\u0430\u0440\u0430\u0445 2006 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u0456 \u0433\u044d\u0442\u0430 \u0431\u0443\u0434\u0437\u0435 \u0433\u043e\u0434 \u0432\u044f\u043b\u0456\u043a\u0456\u0445 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0430\u043c\u0435\u043d.\" \u041f\u0440\u0430\u043c\u044b \u0456\u043c\u043f\u0430\u0440\u0442 \u0433\u0440\u0443\u0437\u0456\u043d\u0441\u043a\u0430\u0433\u0430 \u0456 \u045e\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0456\u043d\u0441\u043a\u0430\u0433\u0430 \u0441\u0446\u044d\u043d\u0430\u0440\u0430 \u045e \u043a\u0440\u0430\u0456\u043d\u0443, \u0434\u0437\u0435 \u0451\u043d \u043d\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0446\u0430\u0432\u0430\u045e.\r\n\r\n\u041f\u0435\u0440\u0430\u0430\u0446\u044d\u043d\u043a\u0430 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\u043f\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0441\u0430\u043d\u043a\u0446\u044b\u0439\u043d\u0443\u044e \u0430\u0434\u0430\u043f\u0442\u0430\u0446\u044b\u044e \u043f\u0430\u0441\u043b\u044f 2020 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u0456 \u0431\u044f\u0433\u0443\u0447\u0443\u044e \u044d\u043a\u0430\u043d\u0430\u043c\u0456\u0447\u043d\u0443\u044e \u0456\u043d\u0442\u044d\u0433\u0440\u0430\u0446\u044b\u044e \u0437 \u0420\u0430\u0441\u0456\u044f\u0439.\r\n\r\n\u0406\u043b\u044e\u0437\u0456\u044f \u0448\u043c\u0430\u0442\u0432\u0435\u043a\u0442\u0430\u0440\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u0456.<\/strong> \u0417\u0434\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0430\u0441\u044f, \u0448\u0442\u043e \u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u044c \u043c\u043e\u0436\u0430 \u0431\u044f\u0441\u043a\u043e\u043d\u0446\u0430 \u0431\u0430\u043b\u0430\u043d\u0441\u0430\u0432\u0430\u0446\u044c \u043f\u0430\u043c\u0456\u0436 \u0420\u0430\u0441\u0456\u044f\u0439 \u0456 \u0415\u0421. \u0410\u0434\u0437\u0456\u043d \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0442\u044b\u043a 2006 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u0430\u043a\u0430\u0437\u0430\u045e\u0441\u044f \u0431\u043b\u0456\u0436\u044d\u0439 \u0434\u0430 \u0456\u0441\u0446\u0456\u043d\u044b, \u0447\u044b\u043c \u0431\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0448\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044c: \"\u0428\u0442\u043e \u0431 \u043d\u0456 \u0441\u043f\u0430\u0434\u0437\u044f\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0441\u044f \u043d\u0435\u043a\u0430\u0442\u043e\u0440\u044b\u044f \u043d\u0430 \u0417\u0430\u0445\u0430\u0434\u0437\u0435, \u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u044c \u043d\u0435 \u0437'\u044f\u045e\u043b\u044f\u0435\u0446\u0446\u0430 \u044f\u0448\u0447\u044d \u0430\u0434\u043d\u044b\u043c \u0434\u0430\u043c\u0456\u043d\u043e, \u0433\u0430\u0442\u043e\u0432\u044b\u043c \u0443\u043f\u0430\u0441\u0446\u0456 \u043f\u0440\u044b \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0448\u044b\u0445 \u0436\u0430 \u0432\u044b\u0431\u0430\u0440\u0430\u0445.\" \u0413\u044d\u0442\u044b \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437 \u0430\u0442\u0440\u044b\u043c\u0430\u045e 95 \u0431\u0430\u043b\u0430\u045e.\r\n\r\n\u041d\u0435\u0434\u0430\u0430\u0446\u044d\u043d\u043a\u0430 \u0430\u0434\u0430\u043f\u0442\u044b\u045e\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u0456 \u0440\u044d\u0436\u044b\u043c\u0443.<\/strong> \u0424\u043e\u043a\u0443\u0441 \u0431\u044b\u045e \u043d\u0430 \u0441\u043b\u0430\u0431\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044f\u0445, \u0443\u043f\u0443\u0441\u043a\u0430\u044e\u0447\u044b \u0437\u0434\u043e\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u0456. \u041f\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0442\u043e\u043b\u0430\u0433 \u0423\u043b\u0430\u0434\u0437\u0456\u043c\u0456\u0440 \u041f\u0430\u0434\u0433\u043e\u043b \u0443 2007 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0437\u0435: \"\u043f\u0440\u0430\u0442\u044d\u0441\u0442\u043d\u044b \u043f\u0430\u0442\u044d\u043d\u0446\u044b\u044f\u043b \u0437\u0430\u043d\u0430\u0434\u0442\u0430 \u043c\u0430\u043b\u044b, \u043a\u0430\u0431 \u0432\u044b\u043a\u043b\u0456\u043a\u0430\u0446\u044c \u043f\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0442\u044b\u0447\u043d\u044b\u044f \u0437\u0440\u0443\u0445\u0456, \u0430 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u043f\u0430\u0433\u0430\u043d\u0434\u0430 \u043d\u0435 \u0434\u0430\u0437\u0432\u043e\u043b\u0456\u0446\u044c \u044f\u043c\u0443 \u0432\u044b\u0440\u0430\u0441\u0446\u0456.\" \u0401\u043d \u043c\u0435\u045e \u0440\u0430\u0446\u044b\u044e \u043d\u0430 13 \u0433\u0430\u0434\u043e\u045e \u043d\u0430\u043f\u0435\u0440\u0430\u0434.\r\n\r\n\u041f\u0440\u044b\u043d\u044f\u0446\u0446\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u043f\u0430\u0433\u0430\u043d\u0434\u044b \u0437\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437.<\/strong> \u041a\u0430\u043b\u0456 \u0440\u044d\u0436\u044b\u043c \u0430\u0431\u044f\u0446\u0430\u045e \u0440\u043e\u0441\u0442 \u0412\u0423\u041f \u043d\u0430 11-13% \u0430\u0431\u043e \u045e\u0432\u0430\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0436\u0430\u043d\u043d\u0435 \u045e \u0442\u043e\u043f-30 \u043a\u0440\u0430\u0456\u043d \u043f\u0430 \u0434\u0437\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0432\u044b\u043c \u043a\u043b\u0456\u043c\u0430\u0446\u0435, \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0442\u044b\u043a\u0456 \u043f\u0440\u044b\u043c\u0430\u043b\u0456 \u0433\u044d\u0442\u0430 \u0437\u0430 \u043f\u043b\u0430\u043d\u044b. \u0413\u044d\u0442\u0430 \u0437\u0430\u045e\u0441\u0451\u0434\u044b \u0431\u044b\u043b\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u043f\u0430\u0433\u0430\u043d\u0434\u0430.\r\n\r\n\r\n

\u0406\u043d\u0444\u0430\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0446\u044b\u0439\u043d\u0430\u044f \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0430<\/H3>\r\n\u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u043a\u0456\u044f \u0434\u0437\u044f\u0440\u0436\u0430\u045e\u043d\u044b\u044f \u043c\u0435\u0434\u044b\u0456 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u043b\u0456 \u0447\u0430\u0441\u0442\u043a\u0430\u0439 \u0440\u0430\u0441\u0456\u0439\u0441\u043a\u0430\u0439 \u0456\u043d\u0444\u0430\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0446\u044b\u0439\u043d\u0430\u0439 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0440\u044b. \u0415\u045e\u0440\u0430\u043f\u0435\u0439\u0441\u043a\u0456\u044f \u0456\u043d\u0441\u0442\u044b\u0442\u0443\u0442\u044b \u0440\u0430\u0437\u043c\u044f\u0436\u043e\u045e\u0432\u0430\u044e\u0446\u044c \u0437\u0430\u043c\u0435\u0436\u043d\u0430\u0435 \u0456\u043d\u0444\u0430\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0446\u044b\u0439\u043d\u0430\u0435 \u043c\u0430\u043d\u0456\u043f\u0443\u043b\u044f\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043d\u0435 (FIMI) \u0456 \u045e\u043d\u0443\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0430\u0435 (DIMI). \u0423 \u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0456 \u0433\u044d\u0442\u0430\u0435 \u0440\u0430\u0437\u043c\u0435\u0436\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043d\u0435 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u043b\u0430 \u043d\u0435\u0432\u044b\u0440\u0430\u0448\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u043c: \u043d\u0430\u0440\u0430\u0442\u044b\u0432\u044b \u0440\u0430\u0441\u0456\u0439\u0441\u043a\u0430\u0433\u0430 \u043f\u0430\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0436\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044f \u043a\u0430\u0430\u0440\u0434\u044b\u043d\u0443\u044e\u0446\u0446\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0437 \u0422\u0410\u0421\u0421 \u0456 \u045e\u0437\u043c\u0430\u0446\u043d\u044f\u044e\u0446\u0446\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0437 \u0431\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u043a\u0456\u044f \u043a\u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u044b, \u0430 \u045e\u043b\u0430\u0441\u043d\u0430\u044f \u043f\u0440\u0430\u043f\u0430\u0433\u0430\u043d\u0434\u0430 \u0440\u044d\u0436\u044b\u043c\u0443 (\u043d\u0430\u0440\u0430\u0442\u044b\u045e \"\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u045e\u043a\u0430 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0431\u0456\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u0456\") \u0432\u044b\u043a\u0430\u0440\u044b\u0441\u0442\u043e\u045e\u0432\u0430\u0435 \u0442\u044b\u044f \u0436 \u043f\u0440\u044b\u0451\u043c\u044b. \u0406\u043d\u0444\u0430\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0446\u044b\u0439\u043d\u044b\u044f \u0441\u0456\u0441\u0442\u044d\u043c\u044b \u0434\u0437\u0432\u044e\u0445 \u043a\u0440\u0430\u0456\u043d \u0437\u043b\u0456\u043b\u0456\u0441\u044f \u0434\u0430 \u0441\u0442\u0443\u043f\u0435\u043d\u0456, \u043a\u0430\u043b\u0456 \u0440\u0430\u0441\u043f\u0430\u0437\u043d\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043d\u0435 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u043b\u0430 \u043d\u0435\u043c\u0430\u0433\u0447\u044b\u043c\u044b\u043c. \u0421\u0443\u0432\u0435\u0440\u044d\u043d\u043d\u0430\u044f \u0432\u044b\u0442\u0432\u043e\u0440\u0447\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044c \u0456\u043d\u0444\u0430\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0446\u044b\u0456 \u045e\u043d\u0443\u0442\u0440\u044b \u043a\u0440\u0430\u0456\u043d\u044b \u0444\u0430\u043a\u0442\u044b\u0447\u043d\u0430 \u0441\u043f\u044b\u043d\u0456\u043b\u0430 \u0456\u0441\u043d\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043d\u0435 \u044f\u043a \u0430\u0441\u043e\u0431\u043d\u0430\u044f \u043a\u0430\u0442\u044d\u0433\u043e\u0440\u044b\u044f.\r\n\r\n\"\"\r\n\r\n\u0423\u0437\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0435\u043d\u044c \u0432\u044b\u044f\u045e\u043b\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044f \u0456\u043d\u0444\u0430\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0446\u044b\u0439\u043d\u0430\u0433\u0430 \u043c\u0430\u043d\u0456\u043f\u0443\u043b\u044f\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044f \u045e \u0431\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u043a\u0456\u0445 \u0434\u0437\u044f\u0440\u0436\u0430\u045e\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u043c\u0435\u0434\u044b\u044f \u043f\u0430 \u0434\u0430\u0434\u0437\u0435\u043d\u044b\u0445 FORESIGHT: \u044d\u043a\u0430\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0456\u043a\u0430 94,8%, \u043c\u0435\u0434\u044b\u044f\/\u0456\u043d\u0444\u0430\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0446\u044b\u044f 81,2%, \u043f\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0442\u044b\u043a\u0430 67,7%, \u0433\u0435\u0430\u043f\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0442\u044b\u043a\u0430 67,5%, \u0433\u0440\u0430\u043c\u0430\u0434\u0437\u044f\u043d\u0441\u043a\u0430\u044f \u0441\u0443\u043f\u043e\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044c 66,6%, \u0442\u044d\u0445\u043d\u0430\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0456\u0456 57,8%.\r\n\r\n

\u0428\u0442\u043e \u0437 \u0433\u044d\u0442\u0430\u0433\u0430 \u0432\u044b\u043d\u0456\u043a\u0430\u0435<\/H3>\r\n\u0423\u0432\u0430\u0436\u043b\u0456\u0432\u0430 \u0441\u0430\u0447\u044b\u0446\u044c, \u043a\u0430\u043b\u0456 \u0431\u044f\u0433\u0443\u0447\u044b \u0440\u044d\u0436\u044b\u043c \u0433\u0430\u0432\u043e\u0440\u044b\u0446\u044c \u0430\u0431 \u0430\u0431\u043c\u0435\u0436\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044f\u0445. \u0417\u0430\u043a\u043e\u043d\u044b \u0430\u0431 \u043a\u0430\u043d\u0442\u0440\u043e\u043b\u0456 \u043c\u0435\u0434\u044b\u044f, \u043f\u0430\u0442\u0440\u0430\u0431\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043d\u0456 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0430\u0440\u044d\u0433\u0456\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u0446\u044b\u0456 \u0430\u0440\u0433\u0430\u043d\u0456\u0437\u0430\u0446\u044b\u0439, \u0437\u0430\u043a\u043e\u043d\u044b \u0430\u0431 \u043d\u0430\u0433\u043b\u044f\u0434\u0437\u0435 \u0437\u0430 \u0456\u043d\u0442\u044d\u0440\u043d\u0435\u0442\u0430\u043c: \u043a\u0430\u043b\u0456 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0442\u044b\u043a\u0456 \u043f\u0440\u044b\u043c\u0430\u043b\u0456 \u0442\u0430\u043a\u0456\u044f \u0437\u0430\u044f\u0432\u044b \u043b\u0456\u0442\u0430\u0440\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430, \u0434\u0430\u043a\u043b\u0430\u0434\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044c \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0430\u0432\u044b\u0448\u0430\u043b\u0430 85%. \u041a\u0430\u043b\u0456 \u0442\u0440\u0430\u043a\u0442\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0456 \u044f\u043a \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0430\u0433\u0430\u0432\u043e\u0440\u043d\u0443\u044e \u043f\u0430\u0437\u0456\u0446\u044b\u044e, \u043f\u0430\u0434\u0430\u043b\u0430 \u043d\u0456\u0436\u044d\u0439 \u0437\u0430 50%.\r\n\r\n\u041d\u044f \u0432\u0435\u0440\u044b\u0446\u044c \u0440\u044d\u0436\u044b\u043c\u0443, \u043a\u0430\u043b\u0456 \u0451\u043d \u0430\u0431\u044f\u0446\u0430\u0435 \u0440\u0430\u0437\u044c\u0432\u0456\u0446\u044c\u0446\u0451. \u042d\u043a\u0430\u043d\u0430\u043c\u0456\u0447\u043d\u044b\u044f, \u0442\u044d\u0445\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0430\u0433\u0456\u0447\u043d\u044b\u044f \u0456 \u0441\u0430\u0446\u044b\u044f\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u044f \u043c\u044d\u0442\u0430\u0432\u044b\u044f \u043f\u0430\u043a\u0430\u0437\u0447\u044b\u043a\u0456 \u0430\u043a\u0430\u0437\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0441\u044f \u043d\u0430\u0439\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0448 \u043d\u0430\u0434\u0437\u0435\u0439\u043d\u044b\u043c\u0456 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0430\u043c\u0456.\r\n\r\n\u041d\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0435\u0446\u044b\u0440\u0430\u0432\u0430\u0446\u044c \u0447\u0443\u0436\u044b \u0432\u043e\u043f\u044b\u0442. \u041d\u0456 \u0433\u0440\u0443\u0437\u0456\u043d\u0441\u043a\u0456, \u043d\u0456 \u045e\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0456\u043d\u0441\u043a\u0456, \u043d\u0456 \u043f\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0441\u043a\u0456 \u0441\u0446\u044d\u043d\u0430\u0440 \u043d\u0435 \u043f\u0430\u0434\u044b\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0437\u0456\u045e \u0434\u0430 \u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0456. \u041a\u043e\u0436\u043d\u044b \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437, \u043f\u0430\u0431\u0443\u0434\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043d\u044b \u043d\u0430 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0456\u0456, \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0456\u045e\u0441\u044f.\r\n\r\n\u0410\u0446\u044d\u043d\u044c\u0432\u0430\u0446\u044c \u0443\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0439\u043b\u0456\u0432\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044c \u0440\u044d\u0436\u044b\u043c\u0443, \u0430 \u043d\u0435 \u043f\u0430\u0442\u044d\u043d\u0446\u044b\u044f\u043b \u0430\u043f\u0430\u0437\u0456\u0446\u044b\u0456. \u041f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u044b \u0430\u0431 \u0441\u0456\u043b\u0435 \u0430\u043f\u0430\u0437\u0456\u0446\u044b\u0456 \u0441\u0456\u0441\u0442\u044d\u043c\u0430\u0442\u044b\u0447\u043d\u0430 \u043d\u0430\u0431\u0456\u0440\u0430\u043b\u0456 20-30% \u0434\u0430\u043a\u043b\u0430\u0434\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u0456. \u041f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u044b \u0430\u0431 \u0441\u0456\u043b\u0435 \u0440\u044d\u0436\u044b\u043c\u0443, 85-95%.\r\n\r\n\u0413\u043b\u044f\u0434\u0437\u0435\u0446\u044c \u043d\u0430 \u0456\u043d\u0444\u0430\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0446\u044b\u0439\u043d\u0430\u0435 \u0430\u0441\u044f\u0440\u043e\u0434\u0434\u0437\u0435. \u0421\u0442\u0443\u043f\u0435\u043d\u044c \u0456\u043d\u0442\u044d\u0433\u0440\u0430\u0446\u044b\u0456 \u0431\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u043a\u0456\u0445 \u0434\u0437\u044f\u0440\u0436\u0430\u045e\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u043c\u0435\u0434\u044b\u044f\u045e \u0443 \u0440\u0430\u0441\u0456\u0439\u0441\u043a\u0443\u044e \u0456\u043d\u0444\u0430\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0446\u044b\u0439\u043d\u0443\u044e \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0443, \u043d\u0430\u0439\u0431\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0448 \u0437\u043d\u0430\u0447\u043d\u044b \u0456 \u043d\u0430\u0439\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0448 \u0430\u0431\u043c\u044f\u0440\u043a\u043e\u045e\u0432\u0430\u0435\u043c\u044b \u0456\u043d\u0434\u044b\u043a\u0430\u0442\u0430\u0440 \u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u0442\u044b \u0441\u0443\u0432\u0435\u0440\u044d\u043d\u0456\u0442\u044d\u0442\u0443.\r\n\r\n\u041f\u044b\u0442\u0430\u043d\u043d\u0456 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0430\u0435\u043c\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u0456 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u043d\u043e\u0432\u044f\u0446\u0446\u0430 \u045e\u0441\u0451 \u0431\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0448 \u0430\u043a\u0442\u0443\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u043c\u0456. \u041f\u0440\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043b\u044b \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u0430\u0437\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044f \u0430\u043f\u043e\u0448\u043d\u0456\u0445 \u0434\u0432\u0430\u0446\u0446\u0430\u0446\u0456 \u0433\u0430\u0434\u043e\u045e \u0434\u0430\u044e\u0446\u044c \u043f\u0430\u0434\u0441\u0442\u0430\u0432\u044b \u0434\u043b\u044f \u0430\u0441\u0446\u044f\u0440\u043e\u0436\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u0456.\r\n\r\n

\u0428\u0442\u043e \u0434\u0430\u043b\u0435\u0439<\/H3>\r\n\u0426\u044b\u043a\u043b\u044b \u0456\u043b\u0436\u044b\u0432\u0430\u0439 \u0430\u0434\u043b\u0456\u0433\u0456. \u041a\u043e\u0436\u043d\u0430\u044f \u043f\u0430\u0434\u0437\u0435\u044f, \u044f\u043a\u0430\u044f \u0456\u043d\u0442\u044d\u0440\u043f\u0440\u044d\u0442\u0443\u0435\u0446\u0446\u0430 \u044f\u043a \"\u0430\u0434\u043a\u0440\u044b\u0446\u0446\u0451,\" \u0441\u043f\u0430\u0440\u0430\u0434\u0436\u0430\u043b\u0430 \u0445\u0432\u0430\u043b\u044e \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0430\u045e \u0430\u0431 \u043b\u0456\u0431\u0435\u0440\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0437\u0430\u0446\u044b\u0456. \u041c\u043e\u0436\u043d\u0430 \u0432\u044b\u043c\u0435\u0440\u0430\u0446\u044c, \u044f\u043a\u0456\u044f \u043f\u0430\u0434\u0437\u0435\u0456 \u0432\u044b\u043a\u043b\u0456\u043a\u0430\u043b\u0456 \u043d\u0430\u0439\u0431\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0448\u044b \u045e\u0441\u043f\u043b\u0451\u0441\u043a \u0456\u043b\u0436\u044b\u0432\u0430\u0433\u0430 \u0430\u043f\u0442\u044b\u043c\u0456\u0437\u043c\u0443 \u0456 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0437 \u044f\u043a\u0456 \u0447\u0430\u0441 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u044b \u0430\u0431\u0432\u044f\u0440\u0433\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0441\u044f.\r\n\r\n
\r\n\u0428\u0442\u043e \u043d\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0434\u043a\u0430\u0437\u0430\u045e \u043d\u0456\u0445\u0442\u043e. \u0427\u0430\u043c\u0443 10 \u0437 12 \u043a\u043b\u044e\u0447\u0430\u0432\u044b\u0445 \u0440\u0430\u0437\u0432\u0456\u0446\u0446\u044f\u045e \u043f\u043e\u045e\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044e \u0430\u0434\u0441\u0443\u0442\u043d\u0456\u0447\u0430\u043b\u0456 \u045e \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u043d\u044b\u043c \u043f\u043e\u043b\u0456? \u0428\u0442\u043e \u043c\u0435\u043d\u0430\u0432\u0456\u0442\u0430 \u045e \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0442\u044b\u0447\u043d\u044b\u043c \u043c\u044b\u0441\u043b\u0435\u043d\u043d\u0456 2005-2013 \u0433\u0430\u0434\u043e\u045e \u0441\u0442\u0432\u0430\u0440\u0430\u043b\u0430 \u0441\u043b\u044f\u043f\u044b\u044f \u043f\u043b\u044f\u043c\u044b?\r\n<\/blockquote>\r\n\r\n\u0426\u0456 \u043c\u043e\u0436\u0430 \u043b\u0435\u043a\u0441\u0456\u043a\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0443 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0434\u043a\u0430\u0437\u0430\u0446\u044c \u044f\u0433\u043e \u0434\u0430\u043a\u043b\u0430\u0434\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044c? \u041f\u0430\u043f\u044f\u0440\u044d\u0434\u043d\u0456\u044f \u0434\u0430\u0434\u0437\u0435\u043d\u044b\u044f \u043f\u0430\u043a\u0430\u0437\u0432\u0430\u044e\u0446\u044c, \u0448\u0442\u043e \u043a\u043b\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0430\u0440 \u0430\u045e\u0442\u0430\u0440\u044b\u0442\u0430\u0440\u043d\u0430\u0439 \u043a\u0430\u043d\u0441\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0434\u0430\u0446\u044b\u0456 \u0434\u0430\u045e 100% \u0434\u0430\u043a\u043b\u0430\u0434\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u0456, \u043a\u043b\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0430\u0440 \u0435\u045e\u0440\u0430\u043f\u0435\u0439\u0441\u043a\u0430\u0433\u0430 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0430\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0443 43%. \u041a\u0430\u043b\u0456 \u0433\u044d\u0442\u0430\u044f \u0437\u0430\u043a\u0430\u043d\u0430\u043c\u0435\u0440\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0446\u044c \u043f\u0430\u0446\u0432\u044f\u0440\u0434\u0436\u0430\u0435\u0446\u0446\u0430 \u043d\u0430 \u0431\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0448\u0430\u0439 \u0432\u044b\u0431\u0430\u0440\u0446\u044b, \u0433\u044d\u0442\u0430 \u0434\u0430\u0437\u0432\u0430\u043b\u044f\u0435 \u0431\u0443\u0434\u0430\u0432\u0430\u0446\u044c \u043a\u043e\u043b\u044c\u043a\u0430\u0441\u043d\u044b\u044f \u043c\u0430\u0434\u044d\u043b\u0456 \u0430\u0434\u0437\u043d\u0430\u043a\u0456 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0442\u044b\u0447\u043d\u0430\u0439 \u044f\u043a\u0430\u0441\u0446\u0456.\r\n\r\n\u041f\u0430\u0440\u0430\u045e\u043d\u0430\u043d\u043d\u0435 \u0437 \u0456\u043d\u0448\u044b\u043c\u0456 \u043a\u0440\u0430\u0456\u043d\u0430\u043c\u0456. \u0426\u0456 \u0442\u044b\u044f \u0436 \u0441\u043a\u0430\u0436\u044d\u043d\u043d\u0456 \u043f\u0430\u045e\u0442\u0430\u0440\u0430\u044e\u0446\u0446\u0430 \u045e \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u0430\u0437\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043d\u0456 \u0430\u0434\u043d\u043e\u0441\u043d\u0430 \u0420\u0430\u0441\u0456\u0456, \u0406\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0430, \u0412\u0435\u043d\u0435\u0441\u0443\u044d\u043b\u044b, \u043a\u0440\u0430\u0456\u043d \u0426\u044d\u043d\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430\u0439 \u0410\u0437\u0456\u0456? \u041a\u0430\u043b\u0456 \u0442\u0430\u043a, \u0431\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u043a\u0456 \u043a\u0435\u0439\u0441 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0430\u0442\u0432\u0430\u0440\u0430\u0435\u0446\u0446\u0430 \u045e \u043a\u0440\u044b\u0442\u044b\u043a\u0443 \u043f\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0441\u0430\u0432\u0435\u0446\u043a\u0430\u0433\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u0430\u0437\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044f \u045e \u0446\u044d\u043b\u044b\u043c, \u0430 \u043c\u0435\u0442\u0430\u0434\u0430\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0456\u044f \u043c\u043e\u0436\u0430 \u0432\u044b\u043a\u0430\u0440\u044b\u0441\u0442\u043e\u045e\u0432\u0430\u0446\u0446\u0430 \u0434\u043b\u044f \u043b\u044e\u0431\u043e\u0433\u0430 \u0430\u045e\u0442\u0430\u0440\u044b\u0442\u0430\u0440\u043d\u0430\u0433\u0430 \u043a\u0430\u043d\u0442\u044d\u043a\u0441\u0442\u0443.\r\n\r\n\r\n\u0410\u0431 \u0434\u0430\u0434\u0437\u0435\u043d\u044b\u0445.<\/strong> \u041f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u044b \u0432\u044b\u043d\u044f\u0442\u044b\u044f \u0437 \u0430\u0440\u0445\u0456\u0432\u0430\u045e 2005-2011 \u0456 1346 \u043f\u0443\u0431\u043b\u0456\u043a\u0430\u0446\u044b\u0439, 1996-2021 \u0437 \u0434\u0430\u043f\u0430\u043c\u043e\u0433\u0430\u0439 \u043a\u0430\u043d\u0432\u0435\u0435\u0440\u0430: \u0441\u0435\u043c\u0430\u043d\u0442\u044b\u0447\u043d\u0430\u0435 \u0444\u0456\u043b\u044c\u0442\u0440\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043d\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0437 pgvector (500 \u043a\u0430\u043d\u0434\u044b\u0434\u0430\u0442\u0430\u045e \u0437 21511 \u0434\u0430\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0430\u045e), \u0441\u0442\u0440\u0443\u043a\u0442\u0443\u0440\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0430\u0435 \u0432\u044b\u043c\u0430\u043d\u043d\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0437 Claude Sonnet (715 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0430\u045e \u0434\u0430\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0430\u045e, 50 \u043a\u0440\u044b\u043d\u0456\u0446, 2024-2026). \u0423\u0441\u0435 \u0434\u0430\u0434\u0437\u0435\u043d\u044b\u044f \u0456 \u0441\u043a\u0440\u044b\u043f\u0442\u044b \u0434\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0443\u043f\u043d\u044b\u044f \u043f\u0430 \u0437\u0430\u043f\u044b\u0446\u0435 \u0434\u043b\u044f \u0434\u0430\u0441\u043b\u0435\u0434\u0447\u044b\u0445 \u043c\u044d\u0442.\r\n<\/small>","_bel_post_name":"predictions_analysis","_bel_post_excerpt":"","_bel_post_title":"\u041a\u0430\u043b\u0456 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u044b \u043d\u0435 \u0441\u043f\u0440\u0430\u045e\u0434\u0436\u0432\u0430\u044e\u0446\u0446\u0430: \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0437 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0430\u045e \u0430\u0434\u043d\u043e\u0441\u043d\u0430 \u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0456, \u0437\u0440\u043e\u0431\u043b\u0435\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u043f\u044f\u0442\u043d\u0430\u0446\u0446\u0430\u0446\u044c \u0433\u0430\u0434\u043e\u045e \u0442\u0430\u043c\u0443","_lt_post_content":"TL;DR<\/strong>\r\n\r\nNaudodamiesi savo analitine platforma, kurioje yra daugiau nei 1,9 mln. dokument\u0173 i\u0161 Baltarusijos valstybin\u0117s ir nepriklausomos \u017einiasklaidos, atlikome sisteming\u0105 2005\u20132013 m. apie Baltarusijos ateit\u012f pateikt\u0173 prognozi\u0173 patikrinim\u0105.\r\n\r\n\u0160ioje analiz\u0117je panaudoti du istoriniai archyvai: daugiau nei 20 000 angl\u0173 kalba para\u0161yt\u0173 straipsni\u0173 apie Baltarusij\u0105 nuo 2005 iki 2011 m. rinkinys ir 1 346 analitini\u0173 grupi\u0173 leidiniai, apimantys laikotarp\u012f nuo 1996 iki 2021 m. Naudodami semantin\u0119 paie\u0161k\u0105, nuskenavome 21 511 dokument\u0173, i\u0161skyr\u0117me 715 konkre\u010di\u0173 prognozini\u0173 teigini\u0173 ir \u012fvertinome 157 labiausiai patikrinamus i\u0161 j\u0173, atsi\u017evelgdami \u012f dabartin\u0119 situacij\u0105.\r\n\r\nRezultatas: bendras tikslumas65,0<\/strong>i\u0161100<\/strong>.\r\n\r\n

Kas buvo prognozuojama?<\/H3>\r\n\r\nTarp gin\u010dytin\u0173 2006 m. rinkim\u0173 ir katastrofi\u0161ko pralaim\u0117jimo 2010 m. gruod\u012f tarp Vakar\u0173 analitik\u0173 susiformavo b\u016bdingas sutarimas. Baltarusija pagaliau buvo pasiruo\u0161usi poky\u010diams. Luka\u0161enka, patirianti ekonomin\u012f spaudim\u0105 ir periodi\u0161kai konfliktuojanti su Maskva, bus priversta liberalizuotis. ES \u201eRyt\u0173 partneryst\u0117\u201c si\u016bl\u0117 paskatas. Nauja baltarusi\u0173 karta, prisijungusi prie pasaulio internetu, reikalaus poky\u010di\u0173.\r\n\r\nKonkre\u010dios prognoz\u0117s skamb\u0117jo taip. 2009 m. analitikai ra\u0161\u0117, kad Luka\u0161enkos reakcija \u201egali b\u016bti radikalus pos\u016bkis \u012f ES\u201c. 2010 m. jie tvirtino: \u201e\u0160is modelis gali ir tur\u0117t\u0173 veikti, kaip parod\u0117 Ukrainos patirtis\u201c, tur\u0117dami omenyje, kad Baltarusija gali vienu metu draugauti su Rusija ir prisijungti prie ES. \u0160ios fraz\u0117s, para\u0161ytos prie\u0161 Krym\u0105, prie\u0161 2020 m., prie\u0161 visk\u0105, kas \u012fvyko po to, ironija yra dviguba. Luka\u0161enka asmeni\u0161kai pa\u017ead\u0117jo vidutin\u012f 500 USD atlyginim\u0105, vadindamas tai \u201e\u0161ventu skai\u010diumi\u201c. Valstyb\u0117s planuose buvo numatytas 11\u201313 % BVP augimas. \u201ee-belarus.org\u201c analitikai nebuvo i\u0161imtis: jie prognozavo, kad iki 2015 m. Baltarusijos pozicija Tarptautin\u0117s telekomunikacij\u0173 s\u0105jungos (ITU) reitinge pager\u0117s.\r\n\r\n\r\nKitas pavyzdys taip pat daug pasako: 2010 m. opozicijos kandidatas Andrejus Sanikovas palankiai \u012fvertino tai, k\u0105 jis pavadino\u201ePaskutiniai diktat\u016bros metai\u201c<\/i>Atmet\u0117 Luka\u0161enkos re\u017eim\u0105 kaip nepaj\u0117g\u0173 \u012fveikti esam\u0173 problem\u0173. Po masini\u0173 protest\u0173 2010 m. gruod\u017eio 19 d. jis buvo suimtas ir 2011 m. gegu\u017e\u0119 nuteistas penkeriems metams kal\u0117jimo. I\u0161 viso kal\u0117jime jis praleido ma\u017edaug 16 m\u0117nesi\u0173. Po \u0161e\u0161iolikos met\u0173 Luka\u0161enka teb\u0117ra vald\u017eioje.\r\n\r\n

Kas nutiko?<\/H3>\r\nRealyb\u0117 pakrypo kita linkme. U\u017euot i\u0161sivadavusi i\u0161 izoliacijos, po 2020 m. rinkim\u0173 Baltarusija dar labiau pasin\u0117r\u0117 \u012f autoritarizm\u0105 ir tapo labiau priklausoma nuo Rusijos nei bet kada anks\u010diau nuo nepriklausomyb\u0117s paskelbimo. U\u017euot integrav\u0119si \u012f ES, re\u017eimas tvirtai \u012fsitvirtino Maskvos orbitoje, dislokuodamas taktinius branduolinius ginklus savo teritorijoje. Balansavimo aktas, kuris du de\u0161imtme\u010dius apibr\u0117\u017e\u0117 Baltarusijos politik\u0105, \u017elugo.\r\n\r\n2020 m. protestai suk\u0117l\u0117 \u017eiauriausias represijas \u0161alies posovietin\u0117je istorijoje. I\u0161 Baltarusijos pab\u0117go daugiau nei 200 000 \u017emoni\u0173. Nepriklausoma \u017einiasklaida buvo sistemingai naikinama. Pilietin\u0117s visuomen\u0117s organizacijos buvo u\u017edarytos arba nustumtos \u012f pogrind\u012f. Visa \u017einiasklaidos ekosistema persik\u0117l\u0117 \u012f Lenkij\u0105, Lietuv\u0105 ir Gruzij\u0105, t\u0119sdama savo darb\u0105 i\u0161 tremties.\r\n\r\n\u017dad\u0117ta ekonomin\u0117 modernizacija nei\u0161sipild\u0117, kaip prognozuota. \u201e\u0160vent\u0105j\u012f skai\u010di\u0173\u201c \u2013 500 doleri\u0173 \u2013 su\u017elugd\u0117 2011 m. valiutos kriz\u0117. Remiantis \u201eBelstat\u201c 2026 m. kovo m\u0117n. duomenimis, nominalus sukauptas vidutinis atlyginimas yra 2 975,8 rublio (ma\u017edaug 1 069 USD pagal dabartin\u012f valiutos kurs\u0105), o mediana, apskai\u010diuota 2025 m. lapkri\u010dio m\u0117n., yra 2 081,7 rublio (ma\u017edaug 748 USD). Formaliai \u201e\u0161ventasis skai\u010dius\u201c yra padvigubintas, ta\u010diau kontekstas radikaliai skiriasi. Vidutinio darbuotojo grynasis medianinis atlyginimas (atskai\u010dius 13 % pajam\u0173 mokest\u012f ir 1 % \u012fmok\u0105 \u012f Socialinio draudimo fond\u0105) yra ma\u017edaug 643 USD. Baltarusijos rublis 2025 m. sustipr\u0117jo 20 % JAV dolerio at\u017evilgiu, dirbtinai padidindamas dolerio ekvivalent\u0105. Diapazonas tarp pramon\u0117s \u0161ak\u0173 yra did\u017eiulis: nuo 6 957 rubli\u0173 IT sektoriuje iki 2 066 rubli\u0173 \u0161vietimo srityje. Baltarusijos ekonomika dabar strukt\u016bri\u0161kai priklauso nuo Rusijos militarizuotos ekonomikos poreiki\u0173, o did\u0117jan\u010dios b\u016bsto kainos daugiausia susijusios su Rusijos pilie\u010di\u0173 perk\u0117limu. Lyginant su Baltijos \u0161alimis ir Lenkija, skirtumas i\u0161lieka ry\u0161kus, nors vidaus diskurse tai kompensuojama gin\u010dais d\u0117l maisto ir komunalini\u0173 paslaug\u0173 kain\u0173.\r\n\r\nInformacin\u0117 aplinka vyst\u0117si kryptimis, kuri\u0173 beveik niekas nenumat\u0117. 2006 m. straipsnyje \u012fsp\u0117jama, kad\u201eInternetas Baltarusijoje netrukus bus kontroliuojamas valstyb\u0117s.\u201c<\/i><\/strong>Tuo metu tai skamb\u0117jo nerim\u0105 kelian\u010diai. Paai\u0161k\u0117jo, kad tai buvo viena tiksliausi\u0173 prognozi\u0173 visame duomen\u0173 rinkinyje.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Rezultat\u0173 suvestin\u0117<\/H3>\r\nI\u0161 157 \u012fvertint\u0173 prognozi\u0173 84 pasitvirtino, 27 pasitvirtino i\u0161 dalies, 39 paneigtos, o 4 buvo apverstos: \u012fvyko visi\u0161kai prie\u0161ingai.\r\n\r\n\"\"\r\n\r\nPatvirtintos prognoz\u0117s pie\u0161ia atpa\u017e\u012fstam\u0105 portret\u0105. \u201eLuka\u0161enka paskelbs pergal\u0119 2010 m. rinkimuose\u201c (100\/100). \u201eVald\u017eia panaudos visas priemones opozicijos mitingui nuslopinti\u201c (95\/100). \u201eOpozicijos kandidatai nebus i\u0161rinkti d\u0117l nes\u0105\u017einingo rinkim\u0173 proceso\u201c (95\/100). \u201eBaltarusija i\u0161liks labai priklausoma nuo Rusijos energijos\u201c (95\/100). \u201e\u0160is \u012fstatymas yra dar vienas i\u0161puolis prie\u0161 \u017einiasklaidos nepriklausomyb\u0119\u201c (95\/100, \u0161altinis: \u201eReporteriai be sien\u0173\u201c). Visos jos apib\u016bdina autoritarinio valdymo mechanizmus. Visos re\u017eimo parei\u0161kimus suprato pa\u017eod\u017eiui.\r\n\r\nI\u0161 dalies patvirtintos prognoz\u0117s rodo teising\u0105 krypt\u012f, ta\u010diau yra ne pagal mast\u0105. \u201eBaltarusija bus priversta prisijungti prie Rusijos Rusijos s\u0105lygomis\u201c (75\/100): priklausomyb\u0117 padid\u0117jo, ta\u010diau oficiali aneksija ne\u012fvyko. \u201eKylan\u010dios duj\u0173 kainos kels rimt\u0105 i\u0161\u0161\u016bk\u012f\u201c (70\/100): 2011 m. kriz\u0117 \u012fvyko, bet re\u017eimas i\u0161gyveno.\r\n\r\nPaneigian\u010diuosius vienija tik\u0117jimas nei\u0161vengiamais poky\u010diais. \u201e2010-ieji bus paskutiniai diktat\u016bros metai\u201c (5\/100). \u201eBaltarusija pateks \u012f 30 geriausi\u0173 \u0161ali\u0173 verslo klimato at\u017evilgiu\u201c (5\/100). \u201eLuka\u0161enka i\u0161ties rank\u0105 nuosaikiajai opozicijai po tarptautinio pasmerkimo\u201c (5\/100). \u201eBVP augs 11\u201313 %\u201c (15\/100, \u0161altinis: Jamestown Foundation).\r\n\r\nKeturi apversti variantai: \u012fvyko visi\u0161kai prie\u0161ingai. \u201eLuka\u0161enka gal\u0117t\u0173 radikaliai pasukti ES link\u201c (5\/100). \u201eBaltarusija gal\u0117t\u0173 sekti Ukrainos modeliu\u201c (5\/100). \u201eBaltarusija tur\u0117t\u0173 integruotis \u012f pasaulio ekonomik\u0105 ir jud\u0117ti Europos link\u201c (10\/100). \u201eBaltarusija i\u0161brendo i\u0161 izoliacijos ir t\u0119s dialog\u0105 su ES\u201c (15\/100). Visi keturi paliet\u0117 Europos vektori\u0173. Kiekvienas prognozavo suart\u0117jim\u0105. Kiekvienas mat\u0117 prie\u0161ingai.\r\n\r\n

Domeno tikslumas<\/H3>\r\nTikslumas skirtingose temose labai skyr\u0117si, ir \u0161is modelis yra pagrindinis tyrimo atradimas.\r\n\r\n\"\"\r\n
\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
Domenas<\/th>\r\nTikslumas<\/th>\r\nB\u016bdingas<\/th>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/thead>\r\n
\u017diniasklaida \/ informacija<\/td>\r\n84,6%<\/td>\r\nSp\u0117jimai apie interneto ir spaudos kontrol\u0119<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Saugumas<\/td>\r\n82,4%<\/td>\r\nPrognoz\u0117s apie saugumo paj\u0117g\u0173 geb\u0117jim\u0105 slopinti<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Pilietin\u0117 visuomen\u0117<\/td>\r\n72,8%<\/td>\r\nOrganizacijoms daromo spaudimo prognoz\u0117s<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Technologijos<\/td>\r\n69,5%<\/td>\r\nInfrastrukt\u016bra teisinga, reitingai \u2013 ne.<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Socialin\u0117 sfera<\/td>\r\n60,0%<\/td>\r\nRibotas imties skai\u010dius (3 prognoz\u0117s)<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Geopolitika<\/td>\r\n54,5%<\/td>\r\nSisteminis Europos vektoriaus pakartotinis \u012fvertinimas<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Politika<\/td>\r\n54,4%<\/td>\r\nRinkimai teisingi, tranzitas \u2013 ne.<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Ekonomika<\/td>\r\n46,2%<\/td>\r\nPropaganda buvo palaikyta prognoze<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n<\/div>Kuo ar\u010diau autoritarizmo mechanizm\u0173, tuo tikslesn\u0117 prognoz\u0117. Kuo ar\u010diau poky\u010di\u0173 l\u016bkes\u010di\u0173, tuo blogiau.\r\n\r\n

Kas klydo: \u0161altini\u0173 reitingavimas<\/H3>Priskyrus prognozes \u0161altiniams, i\u0161traukus tekst\u0105 i\u0161 duomen\u0173 baz\u0117s, paai\u0161k\u0117jo trys analitin\u0117s mokyklos, kuri\u0173 tikslumas buvo skirtingas.
\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\u0160altinis<\/th>\r\nTikslumas<\/th>\r\nPrognoz\u0117s<\/th>\r\nMokykla<\/th>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/thead>\r\n
Belapanas<\/td>\r\n91,0<\/td>\r\n3<\/td>\r\nDokumentavimas<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
\u201eReporteriai be sien\u0173\u201c (RSF)<\/td>\r\n88,3<\/td>\r\n12<\/td>\r\nDokumentavimas<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Reuters<\/td>\r\n86,5<\/td>\r\n2<\/td>\r\nDokumentavimas<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Chartija97<\/td>\r\n72,5<\/td>\r\n4<\/td>\r\nOpozicija<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
OSCE<\/td>\r\n57,5<\/td>\r\n4<\/td>\r\nDiplomatinis<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
BBC<\/td>\r\n57,0<\/td>\r\n5<\/td>\r\nInstitucinis<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Radijas Laisv\u0117<\/td>\r\n49,7<\/td>\r\n6<\/td>\r\nTranzitologinis<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
D\u017eeimstauno fondas<\/td>\r\n18.3<\/td>\r\n3<\/td>\r\nTranzitologinis<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n<\/div>Dokumentacijos mokykla (RSF, \u201eBelapan\u201c, \u201eReuters\u201c) u\u017efiksavo re\u017eimo veiksmus, neinterpretuodama jo ketinim\u0173 per demokratizacijos prizm\u0119. Tikslumas: 86\u201391 %.\r\n\r\nDiplomatin\u0117-institucin\u0117 mokykla (ESBO, BBC) balansavo tarp realizmo ir normatyvini\u0173 l\u016bkes\u010di\u0173. Tikslumas: 57\u201358 %.\r\n\r\nPereinamojo laikotarpio mokykla (Jamestown Foundation, Radio Liberty) taik\u0117 demokratinio per\u0117jimo modelius. Tikslumas: 18\u201350 %.\r\n\r\n70 punkt\u0173 skirtumas tarp RSF ir Jamestown Foundation: vienas skai\u010dius, paai\u0161kinantis dvide\u0161imt met\u0173 klaiding\u0173 prognozi\u0173. Kuo labiau analitikas nutolsta nuo fakt\u0173 ir kuo ar\u010diau demokratinio per\u0117jimo teorijos, tuo blogesn\u0117 prognoz\u0117.\r\n\r\n

Kokie \u017eod\u017eiai numat\u0117 klaid\u0105?<\/H3>157 \u012fvertint\u0173 prognozi\u0173 (tik prognoz\u0117s tekstas, be retrospektyvini\u0173 paai\u0161kinim\u0173) leksin\u0117 analiz\u0117 atskleid\u0117 stipri\u0105 koreliacij\u0105 tarp \u017eod\u017ei\u0173 vartojimo ir tikslumo.\r\n\r\n\u017dod\u017eiai, kurie pasirod\u0117 tik nepavykusiose prognoz\u0117se: \u201epotencialus\u201c, \u201etapti\u201c, \u201evir\u0161us\u201c, \u201epasaulis\u201c, \u201eprotestuoti\u201c, \u201ekilti\u201c, \u201eprivalo\u201c, \u201ereformuoti\u201c, \u201eEuropa\u201c. \u017dod\u017eiai, kurie pasirod\u0117 tik tiksliose prognoz\u0117se: \u201enepriklausomas\u201c, \u201e\u017einiasklaida\u201c, \u201erinkimai\u201c, \u201evald\u017eios institucijos\u201c, \u201edujos\u201c, \u201eprezidentinis\u201c.\r\n\r\nSugrupavus \u012f naratyvo grupes, vaizdas tapo dar ai\u0161kesnis. Autoritarin\u0117s konsolidacijos grup\u0117 (kontrol\u0117, spaudimas, apribojimai, steb\u0117jimas, priklausomyb\u0117): 6 tiksl\u016bs, 0 neteisingi. 100 % tikslumas. Europos per\u0117jimo grup\u0117 (reformos, integracija, verslas, atvirumas): 3 tiksl\u016bs, 4 neteisingi. 43 %.\r\n\r\n\u017dodisstabilumas<\/strong>Tai pasirodo tik tiksliose prognoz\u0117se. Kai analitikai tai naudojo autoritarizmo instituciniam atsparumui apib\u016bdinti, jie buvo teis\u016bs. Re\u017eimo propaganda apie \u201estabilumo sal\u0105\u201c vartoja t\u0105 pat\u012f \u017eod\u012f, bet su prie\u0161inga reik\u0161me: ne diagnoz\u0119, o reklamin\u012f \u0161\u016bk\u012f. Visus \u0161iuos metus valstybin\u0117 \u017einiasklaida sistemingai a\u0161trino demokratini\u0173 \u0161ali\u0173 problemas ir pristat\u0117 Baltarusij\u0105 kaip tvarkos sal\u0105 \u201echaoso j\u016broje\u201c. \u0160iandien \u0161is naratyvas smarkiai prie\u0161tarauja augan\u010diai ideologinio karo retorikai: re\u017eimas vienu metu sako gyventojams, kad Baltarusija yra unikaliai stabili ir kad ji yra apgulta, o sankcijos kelia egzistencin\u0119 gr\u0117sm\u0119.\r\n\r\nDemokratinio per\u0117jimo kalba (\u201eper\u0117jimas\u201c, \u201ereforma\u201c, \u201edemokratizacija\u201c, \u201eatsiv\u0117rimas\u201c, \u201ekry\u017ekel\u0117\u201c) klaidingose prognoz\u0117se buvo aptinkama 1,6 karto da\u017eniau. Kuo daugiau analitikas vartojo \u0161i\u0105 leksik\u0105, tuo blogesn\u0117 buvo prognoz\u0117. Kuo labiau kalba apib\u016bdino sistem\u0105 toki\u0105, kokia ji yra, o ne toki\u0105, kokia ji tur\u0117t\u0173 b\u016bti, tuo ar\u010diau ji priart\u0117jo prie realyb\u0117s.\r\n\r\n

Pasitik\u0117jimo paradoksas<\/H3>\r\nHipotez\u0117 buvo ta, kad patikimiausios prognoz\u0117s bus klaidingiausios. Duomenys parod\u0117 prie\u0161ingai.
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Pasitik\u0117jimo lygis<\/th>\r\nVidutinis tikslumas<\/th>\r\nPrognoz\u0117s<\/th>\r\nKatastrofi\u0161ki gedimai<\/th>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/thead>\r\n
Auk\u0161tas<\/td>\r\n78,7<\/td>\r\n60<\/td>\r\n2<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Vidutinis<\/td>\r\n47,5<\/td>\r\n34<\/td>\r\n7<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
Atsargus<\/td>\r\n44,3<\/td>\r\n10<\/td>\r\n1<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n<\/div>\r\n

Didelio pasitik\u0117jimo prognoz\u0117s buvo pagr\u012fstos autoritarizmo mechanizmu: \u201eLuka\u0161enka tikrai laim\u0117s\u201c, \u201evald\u017eia tikrai slopins\u201c, \u201e\u017einiasklaida tikrai bus apribota\u201c. Autoriai buvo \u012fsitikin\u0119 neigiamais rezultatais ir buvo teis\u016bs. Vidutini\u0161kai pasitik\u0117jimo ir atsargumo prognoz\u0117s nebuvo ai\u0161kios d\u0117l teigiam\u0173 scenarij\u0173: \u201eBaltarusija gal\u0117t\u0173 \u017eengti link ES\u201c, \u201ereformos yra \u012fmanomos\u201c. Autoriai abejojo, ir teisingai, ta\u010diau d\u0117l netinkam\u0173 prie\u017eas\u010di\u0173: jie dar\u0117 prielaid\u0105 apie abu rezultatus, o realyb\u0117 tik\u0117jo tik vien\u0105.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

Ne per didelis pasitik\u0117jimas savimi, o asimetri\u0161kas tikrumas: analitikai buvo teisingai \u012fvertinti, kai teig\u0117, k\u0105 darys re\u017eimas, ir nekalibruoti, kai teig\u0117, kad re\u017eimas gali pasikeisti.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

Ko niekas nenumat\u0117<\/H3>I\u0161 12 pagrindini\u0173 \u012fvyki\u0173, kurie apibr\u0117\u017e\u0117 Baltarusij\u0105 po 2013 m., kiekvien\u0105 i\u0161 j\u0173 patikrinome 715 prognozi\u0173 rinkinyje. De\u0161imt j\u0173 pasirod\u0117 esan\u010dios visi\u0161kai aklosios zon\u0173: n\u0117 vieno pamin\u0117jimo. Visi\u0161kas represinis valstyb\u0117s pertvarkymas. Daugiau nei 200 000 \u017emoni\u0173 emigracija. \u201eTelegram\u201c kaip protest\u0173 ir \u017einiasklaidos infrastrukt\u016bra tremtyje. Rusijos taktini\u0173 branduolini\u0173 ginkl\u0173 dislokavimas. Migracijos panaudojimas kaip ginklas prie\u0161 ES. \u201eRyanair\u201c skryd\u017eio per\u0117mimas. Informacijos suvereniteto praradimas. Visi\u0161kas interneto i\u0161jungimas kaip krizi\u0173 valdymo priemon\u0117. Nepaprastosios pad\u0117ties normalizavimas daugel\u012f met\u0173. Baltarusijos teritorijos panaudojimas \u012fsiver\u017eimui \u012f Ukrain\u0105.\r\n\r\n\r\nTik masiniai protestai buvo i\u0161 dalies numatyti (vienas pamin\u0117jimas: \u201ejei i\u0161eis \u0161imtai t\u016bkstan\u010di\u0173 \u017emoni\u0173, saugumo paj\u0117gos pereis \u012f liaudies pus\u0119\u201c, kas taip pat pasirod\u0117 esanti klaida). Masin\u0117 emigracija buvo i\u0161 dalies pamin\u0117ta vien\u0105 kart\u0105: \u201et\u0119stin\u0117s represijos gali lemti masin\u0119 emigracij\u0105\u201c.\r\n\r\n\r\nPadvigubinus imties dyd\u012f (715 vietoj 349 prognozi\u0173), n\u0117 viena nauja tema neper\u0117jo i\u0161 aklosios zonos \u012f nusp\u0117jam\u0105. Tai ne ma\u017eo imties dyd\u017eio artefaktas, o analitinio m\u0105stymo strukt\u016brin\u0117 savyb\u0117 nuo 2005 iki 2013 m.\r\n\r\n

Klaidingi atlyd\u017eiai<\/H3>\r\nLaiko intervalo analiz\u0117 atskleid\u0117 tris laikotarpius, kai prognozi\u0173 optimizmas buvo didelis, o prognozi\u0173 tikslumas \u2013 ma\u017eas.\r\n\r\n2007 m.:<\/strong>Duj\u0173 konfliktas su Rusija suk\u0117l\u0117 l\u016bkes\u010dius d\u0117l pos\u016bkio \u012f Vakarus. Optimizmas: 38,8 %; tikslumas: 42,5 i\u0161 100.\r\n\r\n2009 m.:<\/strong>Pasaulin\u0117 finans\u0173 kriz\u0117 ir \u201eat\u0161ilimas\u201c santykiuose su ES. Did\u017eiausias optimizmas: 47,8 %, ma\u017eas pesimizmas: 15,9 %. Analitikai pla\u010diai prognozavo suart\u0117jim\u0105 su Europa. Po met\u0173 aik\u0161t\u0117je \u012fvyko chaosas.\r\n\r\n2010 m.:<\/strong>Rinkim\u0173 ciklas. 232 prognoz\u0117s, daugiau nei bet kuriais kitais metais. Optimizmas 42,7 %, tikslumas 44,7 i\u0161 100.\r\n\r\nKiekvienas \u012fvykis, interpretuotas kaip \u201eprover\u017eis\u201c (politini\u0173 kalini\u0173 paleidimas, dialogas su ES, duj\u0173 konfliktas, ekonomin\u0117 kriz\u0117), suk\u0117l\u0117 liberalizacijos prognozi\u0173 bang\u0105. Beveik visos jos nepasiteisino. Po 2010 m. optimizmas suma\u017e\u0117jo iki 28,1 %, pesimizmas i\u0161augo iki 56,2 %. Realyb\u0117 sugriov\u0117 \u0161ias iliuzijas, bet tik laikinai: 2012\u20132013 m. optimizmas sugr\u012f\u017eo \u012f technologij\u0173 srit\u012f.\r\n\r\n

Kod\u0117l jie suklydo: penki sisteminiai \u0161ali\u0161kumai<\/H3>\r\n\r\n\"\"\r\n\r\nTik\u0117jimas demokratizacijos nei\u0161vengiamumu.<\/strong>Analitikai autoritarizm\u0105 laik\u0117 pereinamuoju etapu, o ne stabilia b\u016bsena. 2005 m. buvo prognozuojama, kad \u201eBaltarusijos jaunimas bus labai aktyvus 2006 m. rinkimuose ir tai bus dideli\u0173 poky\u010di\u0173 metai\u201c. Tiesioginis Gruzijos ir Ukrainos scenarij\u0173 perk\u0117limas \u012f \u0161al\u012f, kurioje tai neveik\u0117.Ekonomini\u0173 paskat\u0173 pakartotinis \u012fvertinimas.<\/strong>Kai Luka\u0161enkai teko rinktis tarp ekonominio efektyvumo ir politin\u0117s kontrol\u0117s, jis visada rinkosi kontrol\u0119. \u0160\u012f model\u012f galima atsekti per 2011 m. valiutos kriz\u0119, prisitaikym\u0105 po sankcij\u0173 \u012fvedimo po 2020 m. ir dabartin\u0119 ekonomin\u0119 integracij\u0105 su Rusija.\r\n\r\nDaugialypi\u0161kumo iliuzija.<\/strong>Atrod\u0117, kad Baltarusija gali be galo balansuoti tarp Rusijos ir ES. Vienas analitikas 2006 m. buvo ar\u010diau tiesos nei dauguma: \u201eNepaisant kai kuri\u0173 Vakar\u0173 vil\u010di\u0173, Baltarusija n\u0117ra dar vienas domino kauliukas, pasiruo\u0161\u0119s \u017elugti pirmuosiuose rinkimuose.\u201c \u0160i prognoz\u0117 gavo 95 balus.\r\n\r\nRe\u017eimo prisitaikymo nepakankamas \u012fvertinimas.<\/strong>D\u0117mesys buvo skiriamas silpnyb\u0117ms, o potencialas buvo ignoruojamas. Politologas Vladimiras Podgolis 2007 m.: \u201eProtesto potencialas per ma\u017eas, kad b\u016bt\u0173 galima sukelti politini\u0173 poky\u010di\u0173, o propaganda neleis jam augti.\u201c Jis \u012frod\u0117 es\u0105s teisus po 13 met\u0173.\r\n\r\nKlaidingai palaikius propagand\u0105 prognoz\u0117mis.<\/strong>Kai re\u017eimas \u017ead\u0117jo 11\u201313 % BVP augim\u0105 arba patekim\u0105 \u012f 30 geriausi\u0173 verslo klimato \u0161ali\u0173 s\u0105ra\u0161\u0105, analitikai tai pri\u0117m\u0117 kaip plan\u0105. Tai visada buvo propaganda.\r\n\r\n

Informacin\u0117 erdv\u0117<\/H3>\r\nBaltarusijos valstybin\u0117 \u017einiasklaida tapo Rusijos informacin\u0117s erdv\u0117s dalimi. Europos institucijos skiria u\u017esienio informacijos manipuliavim\u0105 (FIMI) ir vidaus informacijos manipuliavim\u0105 (DIMI). Baltarusijoje \u0161is skirtumas tapo nesuderinamas: Rusijoje kil\u0119 naratyvai koordinuojami per TASS ir stiprinami per Baltarusijos kanalus, o paties re\u017eimo propaganda (\u201estabilumo salos\u201c naratyvas) naudoja tuos pa\u010dius metodus. Dviej\u0173 \u0161ali\u0173 informacin\u0117s sistemos susiliejo iki tokio lygio, kad skirtumai ne\u012fmanomi. Suvereni informacijos gamyba \u0161alies viduje fakti\u0161kai nustojo egzistuoti kaip atskira kategorija.\"\"\r\n\r\n\u201eFORESIGHT\u201c duomenimis, informacijos manipuliavimo aptikimo lygis Baltarusijos valstybin\u0117je \u017einiasklaidoje yra toks: ekonomika \u2013 94,8 %, \u017einiasklaida \/ informacija \u2013 81,2 %, politika \u2013 67,7 %, geopolitika \u2013 67,5 %, pilietin\u0117 visuomen\u0117 \u2013 66,6 % ir technologijos \u2013 57,8 %.\r\n\r\n

Kas i\u0161 to i\u0161plaukia?<\/H3>\r\nAtid\u017eiai steb\u0117kite, kai dabartinis re\u017eimas kalba apie apribojimus. \u017diniasklaidos kontrol\u0117s \u012fstatymai, organizacij\u0173 perregistravimo reikalavimai, interneto steb\u0117jimo \u012fstatymai: kai analitikai tokius teiginius suprato pa\u017eod\u017eiui, tikslumo rodiklis vir\u0161ijo 85 %. Interpretuojant kaip deryb\u0173 pozicij\u0105, jis nukrito \u017eemiau 50 %.\r\n\r\nNepasitik\u0117kite re\u017eimu, kai jis \u017eada pl\u0117tr\u0105. Ekonominiai, technologiniai ir socialiniai tikslai pasirod\u0117 es\u0105 ma\u017eiausiai patikimos prognoz\u0117s.\r\n\r\nNeprojektuokite kit\u0173 \u017emoni\u0173 patirties. Nei Gruzijos, nei Ukrainos, nei Lenkijos scenarijai nebuvo taikomi Baltarusijai. Kiekviena analogija pagr\u012fsta prognoz\u0117 nepasiteisino.\r\n\r\nVertinkite re\u017eimo stabilum\u0105, o ne opozicijos potencial\u0105. Prognoz\u0117s apie opozicijos stiprum\u0105 nuolat pasiekdavo 20\u201330 % tikslum\u0105. Prognoz\u0117s apie re\u017eimo stiprum\u0105 \u2013 85\u201395 %.\r\n\r\nPa\u017evelkite \u012f informacin\u0119 aplink\u0105. Baltarusijos valstybin\u0117s \u017einiasklaidos integracijos \u012f Rusijos informacin\u0119 erdv\u0119 laipsnis yra reik\u0161mingiausias ir ma\u017eiausiai aptariamas suvereniteto praradimo rodiklis.\r\n\r\nPaveld\u0117jimo klausimai tampa vis aktualesni. Pastar\u0173j\u0173 dvide\u0161imties met\u0173 prognozavimo nes\u0117km\u0117s ver\u010dia b\u016bti atsargiems.\r\n\r\n

Kas toliau?<\/H3>\r\nNetikro at\u0161ilimo ciklai. Kiekvienas \u012fvykis, interpretuojamas kaip \u201eatsiv\u0117rimas\u201c, suk\u0117l\u0117 liberalizacijos prognozi\u0173 bang\u0105. Galima i\u0161matuoti, kurie \u012fvykiai suk\u0117l\u0117 did\u017eiausi\u0105 klaidingo optimizmo bang\u0105 ir kiek laiko prireik\u0117, kad \u0161ios prognoz\u0117s b\u016bt\u0173 paneigtos.\r\n\r\n
Ko niekas nenumat\u0117. Kod\u0117l prognoz\u0117je visi\u0161kai nebuvo 10 i\u0161 12 pagrindini\u0173 poky\u010di\u0173? Kas tiksliai 2005\u20132013 m. analitiniame m\u0105styme suk\u016br\u0117 akl\u0105sias zonas?<\/blockquote>\r\n\r\nAr prognozavimo \u017eodynas gali numatyti jos tikslum\u0105? Preliminar\u016bs duomenys rodo, kad autoritarinio konsolidavimo klasteris dav\u0117 100 % tikslum\u0105, o Europos pereinamojo laikotarpio klasteris \u2013 43 %. Jei \u0161is modelis pasitvirtins didesn\u0117je imtyje, tai leis sukurti kiekybinius modelius analitinei kokybei \u012fvertinti.\r\n\r\nPalyginimas su kitomis \u0161alimis. Ar tie patys i\u0161kraipymai kartojasi Rusijos, Irano, Venesuelos ir Vidurin\u0117s Azijos \u0161ali\u0173 prognoz\u0117se? Jei taip, Baltarusijos atvejis tampa posovietinio prognozavimo kritika apskritai, o metodologija gali b\u016bti taikoma bet kokiam autoritariniam kontekstui.\r\n\r\n\r\nApie duomenis.<\/strong>\r\nPrognoz\u0117s buvo i\u0161gautos i\u0161 archyv\u0173, apiman\u010di\u0173 2005\u20132011 m., ir 1 346 leidini\u0173, apiman\u010di\u0173 1996\u20132021 m. laikotarp\u012f, naudojant \u0161iuos procesus: semantinis filtravimas naudojant \u201epgvector\u201c (500 kandidat\u0173 i\u0161 21 511 dokument\u0173), strukt\u016brizuota i\u0161gavimas naudojant \u201eClaude Sonnet\u201c (715 prognozi\u0173) ir vertinimas naudojant FORESIGHT platformos duomenis (1,9 mln. dokument\u0173, 50 \u0161altini\u0173, apiman\u010di\u0173 2024\u20132026 m.). Visi duomenys ir scenarijai tyrim\u0173 tikslais pateikiami papra\u0161ius.<\/small>\r\n","_lt_post_name":"predictions_analysis","_lt_post_excerpt":"","_lt_post_title":"Kai prognoz\u0117s nei\u0161sipildo: prie\u0161 penkiolika met\u0173 pateikt\u0173 prognozi\u0173 d\u0117l Baltarusijos analiz\u0117","edit_language":"eng","footnotes":""},"categories":[7,4,3,6,1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/factcheck.lt\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5026"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/factcheck.lt\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/factcheck.lt\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/factcheck.lt\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/factcheck.lt\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5026"}],"version-history":[{"count":17,"href":"https:\/\/factcheck.lt\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5026\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5048,"href":"https:\/\/factcheck.lt\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5026\/revisions\/5048"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/factcheck.lt\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5027"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/factcheck.lt\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5026"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/factcheck.lt\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5026"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/factcheck.lt\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5026"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}