{"id":5540,"date":"2026-09-11T13:15:29","date_gmt":"2026-09-11T10:15:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/factcheck.lt\/?p=5540"},"modified":"2026-09-12T16:08:17","modified_gmt":"2026-09-12T13:08:17","slug":"tfgbv_belarus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/factcheck.lt\/lt\/news\/tfgbv_belarus\/","title":{"rendered":"Valstyb\u0117 kaip smurtautoja: skaitmeninis smurtas d\u0117l lyties Baltarusijoje","raw":"Valstyb\u0117 kaip smurtautoja: skaitmeninis smurtas d\u0117l lyties Baltarusijoje"},"content":{"rendered":"

TL;DR<\/strong><\/p>\n

Technologijomis palengvintas smurtas d\u0117l lyties (angl. technology-facilitated gender-based violence, TFGBV) tarptautin\u0117je literat\u016broje pirmiausia apra\u0161omas kaip tarpasmeninis: buv\u0119 partneriai, persekiotojai, anoniminiai troliai. Baltarusijos atvejis veikia kitaip.<\/p>\n

I\u0161analizavome 7 814 dokument\u0173 i\u0161 FORESIGHT tekstyno, apiman\u010dio valstybin\u0119, prore\u017eimin\u0119 ir nepriklausom\u0105 \u017einiasklaid\u0105 bei \u201eTelegram\u201c kanalus. Did\u017eiausia smurto d\u0117l lyties skaitmenin\u0117je erdv\u0117je vykdytoja Baltarusijos informacin\u0117je erdv\u0117je pasirod\u0117 esanti valstyb\u0117: j\u0117gos strukt\u016bros, propagandin\u0117 \u201eTelegram\u201c vertikal\u0117 ir valstybin\u0117 \u017einiasklaida kartu atsakingos u\u017e 42 % dokumentuot\u0173 su Baltarusija susijusi\u0173 smurto d\u0117l lyties atvej\u0173. Tai daugiau nei anoniminiai nusikalt\u0117liai (26 %) ir tarpasmeninis smurtas (19 %). O i\u0161 dokument\u0173, kurie patys yra smurto aktai (doksingas, seksualizuot\u0173 klasto\u010di\u0173 platinimas, ty\u010diojimasis i\u0161 auk\u0173), 99 % suk\u016br\u0117 valstybinis ir prore\u017eiminis segmentas.<\/p>\n

Kas yra TFGBV<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jungtini\u0173 Taut\u0173 gyventoj\u0173 fondas (UNFPA) TFGBV<\/a> apibr\u0117\u017eia kaip smurto akt\u0105, \u012fvykdyt\u0105, palengvint\u0105 arba sustiprint\u0105 skaitmenin\u0117mis medijomis ar informacin\u0117mis ir ry\u0161i\u0173 technologijomis ir nukreipt\u0105 \u012f asmen\u012f d\u0117l jo lyties. Tipologija apima doksing\u0105 (asmens duomen\u0173 paskelbim\u0105), intymi\u0173 vaizd\u0173 platinim\u0105 be sutikimo, seksualizuotus giluminius klastojimus (deepfake), seksualin\u012f \u0161anta\u017e\u0105 (sextortion), kibernetin\u012f persekiojim\u0105 ir priekabiavim\u0105 internete. Pagrindin\u0117 UNFPA sistemos mintis yra t\u0119stinumas: internete prasid\u0117j\u0119s smurtas eskaluojasi \u012f fizin\u0119 erdv\u0119, o moter\u0173 savicenz\u016bra d\u0117l skaitmeninio smurto gr\u0117sm\u0117s skurdina vie\u0161\u0105j\u0105 erdv\u0119 ir kenkia demokratijai.<\/p>\n

Teisinis \u0161io apibr\u0117\u017eimo r\u0117mas pastaraisiais metais tapo konkretus. GREVIO, Stambulo konvencijos steb\u0117senos institucija, 2021 m. pri\u0117m\u0117 Bendr\u0105j\u0105 rekomendacij\u0105 Nr. 1 d\u0117l smurto prie\u0161 moteris skaitmenin\u0117s dimensijos; CEDAW dar 2017 m. (Bendroji rekomendacija Nr. 35) i\u0161pl\u0117t\u0117 smurto d\u0117l lyties s\u0105vok\u0105 \u012f skaitmenin\u0119 aplink\u0105. ES direktyva 2024\/1385 \u012fpareigoja valstybes nares kriminalizuoti manipuliuotos intymios med\u017eiagos, \u012fskaitant giluminius klastojimus, platinim\u0105; perk\u0117limo terminas \u2013 2027 m. bir\u017eelio 14 d. Latvija jau \u012fved\u0117 atitinkam\u0105 Baud\u017eiamojo \u012fstatymo 145\u00b9 straipsn\u012f, galiojant\u012f nuo 2026 m. baland\u017eio 16 d. Galiausiai 2026 m. kov\u0105 Europos Tarybos Ministr\u0173 Komitetas pri\u0117m\u0117 Rekomendacij\u0105 CM\/Rec(2026)2 \u2013 pirm\u0105j\u012f tarptautin\u012f standart\u0105, skirt\u0105 b\u016btent atskaitomybei u\u017e technologijomis palengvint\u0105 smurt\u0105 prie\u0161 moteris ir mergaites. Visi \u0161ie instrumentai remiasi viena prielaida: valstyb\u0117 nori patraukti smurtautoj\u0105 atsakomyb\u0117n.<\/p>\n

M\u016bs\u0173 duomenys patvirtina t\u0119stinum\u0105, ta\u010diau rodo, kad Baltarusijoje jis institucionalizuotas, o tarptautin\u0117s sistemos prielaida negalioja. Asmens duomen\u0173 paskelbimas \u201eTelegram\u201c kanale ir po jo sekantis sulaikymas susij\u0119 ne atsitiktinai: tarp j\u0173 stovi GUBOPiK, Vyriausioji kovos su organizuotu nusikalstamumu valdyba, kuriai tokios publikacijos tarnauja kaip darbin\u0117 med\u017eiaga.<\/p>\n

Kaip matavome<\/h2>\n

I\u0161 FORESIGHT tekstyno (apie 3,6 mln. Baltarusijos informacin\u0117s erdv\u0117s dokument\u0173 2026 m. rugpj\u016b\u010dio duomenimis) pagal a\u0161tuonis paie\u0161kos indikatorius atrinkome 7 814 unikali\u0173 2018\u20132026 m. dokument\u0173. Indikatoriai: doksingas, intym\u016bs vaizdai, priekabiavimas internete, giluminiai klastojimai, seksualizuotos klastot\u0117s, priverstiniai \u201eatgailos vaizdo \u012fra\u0161ai\u201c, i\u0161puoliai prie\u0161 \u017eurnalistes ir aktyvistes, r\u0117minis diskursas apie skaitmenin\u012f smurt\u0105.<\/p>\n

Kiekvien\u0105 dokument\u0105 nepriklausomai kodavo du dideliais kalbos modeliais (LLM) gr\u012fsti anotatoriai pagal vien\u0105 kod\u0173 knyg\u0105, sudaryt\u0105 remiantis UNFPA \u017eodynu: relevanti\u0161kumas, smurto forma, s\u0105lygotumas lytimi, aukos lytis ir kategorija, smurtautojo tipas, dokumento funkcija (\u012fvykio nu\u0161vietimas arba pats smurto aktas). Modeli\u0173 sutarimas matuotas Koheno kapa: nuo \u03ba=0,83 (\u201ebeveik tobulas\u201c) pagal aukos lyt\u012f iki \u03ba=0,36 pagal s\u0105lygotumo lytimi lauk\u0105, labiausiai interpretacin\u012f kod\u0173 knygoje. Nesutarimus (34 % dokument\u0173) sprend\u0117 tre\u010dias, stipresnis LLM anotatorius, kodav\u0119s aklai; galutin\u0117 \u017eyma priskirta bals\u0173 dauguma. 64 % galutini\u0173 \u017eym\u0173 yra vieningos. Pagrindiniai atvejai, kuriais grind\u017eiamos i\u0161vados, papildomai patikrinti rankiniu b\u016bdu. Visa sutarimo lentel\u0117 pateikta metodologiniame priede.<\/p>\n

Rezultatas: 2 671 dokumentas pripa\u017eintas susijusiu su TFGBV; 2 420 i\u0161 j\u0173 susij\u0119 su Baltarusija, baltarusiais ar baltarusi\u0173 diaspora, likusieji nu\u0161vie\u010dia u\u017esienio atvejus. Ai\u0161k\u0173 s\u0105lygotum\u0105 lytimi (auka atakuojama kaip moteris arba per seksualizavim\u0105 ir ly\u010di\u0173 stereotipus) turi 868 dokumentai, i\u0161 j\u0173 711 susijusi\u0173 su Baltarusija. Kur teiginys lie\u010dia Baltarusijos ekosistem\u0105, toliau pateikiami su Baltarusija susijusio poaibio skai\u010diai. 87 % auk\u0173 \u0161ioje grup\u0117je yra moterys.<\/p>\n

Etin\u0117 pastaba. Publikacijoje vardais \u012fvardijamos tik tos moterys, kurios pa\u010dios pavie\u0161ino savo istorijas; neatkuriami nei vaizdai, nei nuorodos \u012f juos; apra\u0161omas modelis, o ne atskiros \u201einternetin\u0117s dramos\u201c.<\/p>\n

Darbo pasidalijimas: kas nu\u0161vie\u010dia smurt\u0105 ir kas j\u012f vykdo<\/h2>\n

Kod\u0173 knygoje i\u0161skirta dokumento funkcija: smurto atvejo nu\u0161vietimas, aukos liudijimas, prevencija arba smurto artefaktas, tai yra dokumentas, kuris pats yra smurto aktas: \u012fra\u0161as su asmens duomenimis, suklastot\u0173 intymi\u0173 vaizd\u0173 platinimas, ty\u010diojimasis i\u0161 aukos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Dokumento funkcija<\/th>\nProre\u017eiminiai \u201eTelegram\u201c kanalai<\/th>\nValstybin\u0117 \u017einiasklaida ir institucijos<\/th>\nNepriklausoma \u017einiasklaida<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Nu\u0161vietimas<\/td>\n108<\/td>\n313<\/td>\n1 474<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Smurto artefaktas<\/strong><\/td>\n195<\/strong><\/td>\n25<\/strong><\/td>\n1<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kriminalin\u0117 kronika<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n136<\/td>\n56<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Prevencija<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n103<\/td>\n12<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Aukos liudijimas<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n60<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
\n\"Dokumento
1 pav. Dokumento funkcija pagal tekstyno segmentus. \u017daliai geltonas blokas: dokumentai, kurie patys yra smurto aktai.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

I\u0161 222 smurto artefakt\u0173 220 (99 %) suk\u016br\u0117 valstybinis ir prore\u017eiminis segmentas. Smurt\u0105 vykdanti ir j\u012f dokumentuojanti ekosistemos prakti\u0161kai nesikerta. Valstybinis diskursas apie skaitmenin\u012f smurt\u0105 egzistuoja, bet tik dviem \u017eanrais: apoliti\u0161ka kriminalin\u0117 kronika (seksualinis \u0161anta\u017eas, suk\u010diai) ir \u201evaik\u0173 apsauga internete\u201c. R\u0117min\u0117 smurto d\u0117l lyties skaitmenin\u0117je erdv\u0117je kalba sutinkama 33 dokumentuose visame tekstyne, beveik vien nepriklausomame segmente.<\/p>\n

Baltarusi\u0161ka forma: prievartinis vie\u0161as pa\u017eeminimas<\/strong><\/p>\n

Da\u017eniausia TFGBV forma tekstyne (850 dokument\u0173, i\u0161 j\u0173 825 susij\u0119 su Baltarusija) UNFPA tipologijoje neegzistuoja kaip atskira kategorija. Tai priverstiniai \u201eatgailos vaizdo \u012fra\u0161ai\u201c. J\u0117gos strukt\u016br\u0173 spaudimu \u012fra\u0161ytas vaizdo atsipra\u0161ymas, platinamas per provyriausybinius kanalus, sujungia prievart\u0105 realiame gyvenime su skaitmeniniu pa\u017eeminimu ir veikia kaip auditorijos bauginimo \u012frankis.<\/p>\n

\n\"TFGBV
2 pav. Smurto formos 2 671 dokumente: kiekvienas kvadratas \u2013 vienas dokumentas.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u010cia b\u016btina paai\u0161kinti, k\u0105 Baltarusijos re\u017eimas laiko \u201esavais\u201c, o k\u0105 \u201esvetimais\u201c. Rib\u0105 nustato lojalumas, ne socialin\u0117 pad\u0117tis ir ne lytis: \u201esavi\u201c yra valstyb\u0117s aparatas, j\u0117gos strukt\u016bros, biud\u017eetinio sektoriaus darbuotojai ir lojali valstybin\u0117s \u017einiasklaidos auditorija; \u201esvetimais\u201c tampa visi, susij\u0119 su 2020 m. protestais, nepriklausoma \u017einiasklaida ar diaspora. Prore\u017eimini\u0173 kanal\u0173 \u017eodyne, gerai matomame m\u016bs\u0173 tekstyne, tai \u201ezmahary\u201c, \u201eekstremistai\u201c, \u201epab\u0117g\u0117liai\u201c. Lytis nulemia b\u016bd\u0105, kuriuo \u017emogus paver\u010diamas \u201esvetimu\u201c. I\u0161 moter\u0173 atimamas subjekti\u0161kumas per seksualizavim\u0105 ir vaidmenis: \u201eapsi\u0161auk\u0117l\u0117\u201c, \u201epab\u0117gusi zmaharka\u201c, \u201evir\u0117ja\u201c Cichanouskajos adresu, \u201eporno aktor\u0117\u201c Mentusovos adresu, kaltinimai, kad politik\u0117 \u201epaliko vaikus\u201c. I\u0161 vyr\u0173 atimamas vyri\u0161kumas: \u201ezmahariukai\u201c, \u201egaideliai\u201c, \u201ebailiai\u201c, seksualizuotas ty\u010diojimasis, oponento vaizdavimas bailiu ar i\u0161laikytiniu. Abiem atvejais tikslas tas pats: parodyti \u201esav\u0173\u201c auditorijai, kad \u201esvetimi\u201c nenusipelno nei pagarbos, nei apsaugos.<\/p>\n

Svarbu, kad \u201esavo\u201c statusas yra s\u0105lyginis ir at\u0161aukiamas nukrypimo akimirk\u0105. 2026 m. liep\u0105 Homelio rajono valstybinio laikra\u0161\u010dio vyriausioji redaktor\u0117, leidusi sau sukritikuoti vald\u017eiai lojali\u0105 muzikos grup\u0119, \u012fra\u0161\u0117 \u201eatgailos vaizdo \u012fra\u0161\u0105\u201c su atsipra\u0161ymu. Dar vakar \u201esava\u201c, ji buvo vie\u0161ai perkelta \u012f \u201esvetimus\u201c tuo pa\u010diu \u012frankiu, paprastai taikomu re\u017eimo oponentams.<\/p>\n

Praktika jau kerta sienas: 2026 m. nepriklausoma \u017einiasklaida u\u017efiksavo, kad \u201eatsipra\u0161ymo vaizdo \u012fra\u0161us\u201c pagal baltarusi\u0161k\u0105 model\u012f prad\u0117jo \u012fra\u0161in\u0117ti Azerbaid\u017eano j\u0117gos strukt\u016bros.<\/p>\n

Valstyb\u0117: did\u017eiausia smurtautoja<\/strong><\/p>\n

711 su Baltarusija susijusi\u0173 dokument\u0173 su nustatytu s\u0105lygotumu lytimi smurtautoj\u0173 pasiskirstymas atrodo taip. Valstybin\u0117 grup\u0117: j\u0117gos strukt\u016bros (189), prore\u017eiminiai \u201eTelegram\u201c kanalai (90), valstybin\u0117 \u017einiasklaida (22), i\u0161 viso 301 atvejis, arba 42 %. Anoniminiai nusikalt\u0117liai: 182 (26 %). Tarpasmeninis smurtas: 138 (19 %). Daugumoje \u201evalstybini\u0173\u201c atvej\u0173 aukos yra moterys.<\/p>\n

I\u0161kalbingas atvejis: 2025 m. rugs\u0117j\u012f \u017eurnalist\u0117 Larysa \u0160\u010dyrakova vie\u0161ai papasakojo, kad po jos sulaikymo j\u0117gos strukt\u016br\u0173 pareig\u016bnai paskelb\u0117 jos intymias nuotraukas pa\u017ein\u010di\u0173 svetain\u0117je. \u0160ioje istorijoje surinkti visi elementai, apie kuriuos kalbama publikacijoje. Smurt\u0105 vykdo valstyb\u0117, anoniminio persekiotojo \u0161ioje istorijoje n\u0117ra; smurto forma, intymi\u0173 vaizd\u0173 platinimas be sutikimo, paimta i\u0161 klasikin\u0117s TFGBV tipologijos; grandin\u0117 prasideda krata ir technikos pa\u0117mimu, o t\u0119siasi internete; o tikslas yra \u017eurnalist\u0117s pa\u017eeminimas b\u016btent kaip moters.<\/p>\n

Koordinuotos bangos: i\u0161puoli\u0173 infrastrukt\u016bra<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tekstynas leid\u017eia rekonstruoti i\u0161puolius kaip operacijas: su s\u0117jimo datomis, kanal\u0173 tinklu ir vaidmen\u0173 pasiskirstymu.<\/p>\n

2025 m. baland\u017eio 9\u201310 d. banga.<\/strong> Per dvi dienas septyni smurto \u012fra\u0161ai penkiuose prore\u017eiminiuose kanaluose (\u201e\u017doltyje slivy\u201c, \u201eNewsSliv\u201c, \u201eKrysolOFF\u201c, \u201eBELARUSKAJA KUCHNIA\u201c, \u201ePEREOBUTAJA realnost\u201c) atakuoja vien\u0105 taikin\u012f \u2013 Maryn\u0105 Mentusov\u0105, \u201eBelsat\u201c kanalo laidos \u201eOby\u010dnoje utro\u201c ved\u0117j\u0105. Du vektoriai: dirbtinio intelekto sugeneruoti \u201eintym\u016bs\u201c vaizdai \u012fkeliami \u012f pornografin\u0119 svetain\u0119 jos vardu, o suklastotos nuotraukos platinamos su nuorodomis \u012f pornografin\u0119 platform\u0105. Valstybin\u0117s televizijos ved\u0117jas Ryhoras Azaronakas bang\u0105 palydi pa\u0161aipiu metakomentaru su kalamb\u016bru apie jos laidos pavadinim\u0105. Nepriklausomi leidiniai atsako t\u0105 pa\u010di\u0105 dien\u0105, pati Mentusova vie\u0161ai prabyla po trij\u0173 savai\u010di\u0173, ta\u010diau asimetrija akivaizdi: klastot\u0117s suk\u016brimas kainuoja minutes, paneigimas kainuoja reputacin\u0119 \u017eal\u0105 visam laikui.<\/p>\n

\n\"I\u0161puolio
3 pav. 2025 m. baland\u017eio 9\u201310 d. bangos anatomija: juostos atitinka informacines aplinkas, rodykl\u0117s rodo naratyvo jud\u0117jim\u0105.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

2025 m. rugpj\u016b\u010dio 7 d. banga.<\/strong> \u0160e\u0161i to paties tinklo kanalai (\u201eSlivy\u201c \u0161eima, \u201eSmotri na mir otkrytymi glazami\u201c, \u201ePEREOBUTAJA realnost\u201c) sinchroni\u0161kai platina \u201eskandaling\u0105 vaizdo \u012fra\u0161\u0105\u201c, nukreipt\u0105 prie\u0161 Sviatlan\u0105 Cichanouskaj\u0105. Mechanika identi\u0161ka baland\u017eio bangai; taikinys \u2013 labiausiai atpa\u017e\u012fstama \u0161alies politik\u0117. Tai chrestomatinis pavyzdys to, k\u0105 tyr\u0117jai vadina dezinformacija d\u0117l lyties: politik\u0117s diskreditavimas per seksualizavim\u0105 ir kompromat\u0105 vietoje jos pozicijos kritikos.<\/p>\n

Abiej\u0173 bang\u0173 s\u0117j\u0117jai sudaro branduol\u012f to paties anoniminio \u201egeltonojo\u201c propagandin\u0117s \u201eTelegram\u201c vertikal\u0117s sluoksnio, kur\u012f FactCheck.LT apra\u0161\u0117 prore\u017eiminio \u201eTelegram\u201c lauko tyrime. Du tre\u010ddalius tekstyno doksingo diskurso sukuria du preki\u0173 \u017eenklai: \u201e\u017doltyje slivy\u201c (139 dokumentai TFGBV indikatoriuose) ir \u201eNewsSliv\u201c (126). Smurtas d\u0117l lyties priklauso \u012fprastam \u0161ios infrastrukt\u016bros repertuarui greta doksingo ir priekabiavimo.<\/p>\n

\n\"Kanal\u0173
4 pav. Kas s\u0117ja ir kas platina: prore\u017eiminio \u201eTelegram\u201c tinklo sluoksniai pagal dokument\u0173 skai\u010di\u0173 TFGBV atrankoje.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\n\"Dvi
5 pav. Smurto artefaktai valstybiniame ir prore\u017eiminiame segmentuose pagal m\u0117nesius: 2025 m. baland\u017eio ir rugpj\u016b\u010dio pikai visi\u0161kai s\u0105lygoti lytimi.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Kieno aukos statusas skai\u010diuojamas: asimetrija<\/strong><\/p>\n

Valstybin\u0117 ekosistema moka piktintis giluminiais klastojimais, kai aukos yra savos. 2026 m. kov\u0105 istorij\u0105 apie \u201esuk\u010di\u0173 giluminius Ryhoro Azaronako klastojimus\u201c sinchroni\u0161kai i\u0161platino de\u0161imtys valstybin\u0117s vertikal\u0117s kanal\u0173, iki pat rajonini\u0173 ir gamyklini\u0173 (\u201eKri\u010devcementno\u0161ifer\u201c, \u201eSteklozavod NEMAN\u201c, \u201e\u010cAS PIK CHOTIMSK\u201c). Tekstyne veikia net prore\u017eiminis kanalas \u201eNarodnyj Antifeik\u201c, demaskuojantis giluminius klastojimus, nukreiptus prie\u0161 pareig\u016bnus.<\/p>\n

Asimetrijos skai\u010diai pagal su Baltarusija susijusius dokumentus. Tarp neseksualizuot\u0173 gilumini\u0173 klastojim\u0173 (suk\u010diavimas, politin\u0117s klastot\u0117s; 379 dokumentai) auk\u0173 vyr\u0173 daugiau nei dvigubai daugiau nei moter\u0173: 228 prie\u0161 104. Tai pareig\u016bnai ir propagandistai, ir j\u0173 atvejai sulaukia \u201egynybos\u201c kampanijos. Tarp seksualizuot\u0173 klasto\u010di\u0173 (29 dokumentai) auk\u0173 moterys sudaro 88 % nustatyt\u0173 auk\u0173 (23 prie\u0161 3), o j\u0173 atvejus ta pati ekosistema kuria ir platina: 14 i\u0161 29 dokument\u0173 yra smurto artefaktai, 11 i\u0161 j\u0173 nukreipti prie\u0161 moteris.<\/p>\n

\n\"Asimetrija\"
6 pav. Auk\u0173 lytis pagal klastot\u0117s tip\u0105, su Baltarusija susij\u0119 dokumentai.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Dvi i\u0161lygos \u0161iam palyginimui. Skai\u010diuojami dokumentai, o ne incidentai: viena kovo istorija apie Azaronako giluminius klastojimus dav\u0117 daugiau nei trisde\u0161imt dokument\u0173, tod\u0117l vyr\u0173 persvara i\u0161 dalies matuoja gynybos kampanijos intensyvum\u0105, ir b\u016btent tai yra pats rei\u0161kinys. Be to, kategorijos skiriasi funkcija: giluminiai klastojimai atstovaujami daugiausia gynybinio nu\u0161vietimo, seksualizuotos klastot\u0117s apima pa\u010dius smurto aktus. Tod\u0117l palyginimas rodo ne tai, kas da\u017eniau atakuojamas, o tai, kieno aukos status\u0105 ekosistema pripa\u017e\u012fsta ir gina. I\u0161kalbinga, kad Azaronakas stovi abiejose pus\u0117se: 2025 m. baland\u012f jis ty\u010diojasi i\u0161 Mentusovos, 2026 m. kov\u0105 visa vertikal\u0117 gina j\u012f nuo giluminio klastojimo. Kai giluminis klastojimas nukreiptas prie\u0161 sistemos vyr\u0105, jis vadinamas suk\u010di\u0173 ir prie\u0161\u0173 i\u0161puoliu. Kai seksualizuota klastot\u0117 nukreipta prie\u0161 aktyvist\u0119, ji vadinama turiniu.<\/p>\n

T\u0119stinumas ir vaizdo ribos<\/strong><\/p>\n

Interneto ir realaus gyvenimo t\u0119stinumas, kur\u012f UNFPA apra\u0161o kaip rizik\u0105, Baltarusijos duomenyse yra norma. 1 328 dokumentai, pus\u0117 relevantaus tekstyno (1 272 i\u0161 j\u0173 susij\u0119 su Baltarusija), fiksuoja per\u0117jim\u0105 tarp skaitmeninio ir fizinio smurto: doksingas, po kurio seka sulaikymas; sulaikymas, po kurio seka \u201eatgailos vaizdo \u012fra\u0161as\u201c.<\/p>\n

Dvi i\u0161lygos d\u0117l i\u0161samumo. Pirma, smurtas d\u0117l lyties skaitmenin\u0117je erdv\u0117je nukreiptas ne tik prie\u0161 moteris: 46 dokumentai fiksuoja vyrus, tapusius lytimi s\u0105lygot\u0173 i\u0161puoli\u0173 aukomis, nuo grasinim\u0173 i\u0161\u017eaginti baltarusi\u0173 savanor\u012f Ukrainoje iki prore\u017eimini\u0173 kanal\u0173 seksualizuoto ty\u010diojimosi i\u0161 aktyvist\u0173. Mechanizmas tas pats: kontrol\u0117 per seksualizuot\u0105 pa\u017eeminim\u0105. Antra, kaltinimai priekabiavimu kyla ir demokratin\u0117s bendruomen\u0117s viduje: 2025 m. ruden\u012f keli tokie atvejai baig\u0117si nu\u0161alinimais ir vidiniais tyrimais diasporos organizacijose. Mes nevertiname \u0161i\u0173 kaltinim\u0173 esm\u0117s. M\u016bs\u0173 siu\u017eetui svarb\u016bs du faktai: bendruomen\u0117s viduje, kitaip nei valstyb\u0117je, veikia atskaitomyb\u0117s mechanizmai, o kiekvien\u0105 tok\u012f atvej\u012f prore\u017eiminiai kanalai nedelsdami instrumentalizuoja kaip kur\u0105 dezinformacijai d\u0117l lyties.<\/p>\n

Apribojimai<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tekstynas atspindi smurto matomum\u0105 \u017einiasklaidoje, o ne jo paplitim\u0105: atvejai, nepatek\u0119 \u012f \u017einiasklaid\u0105 ir \u201eTelegram\u201c, mums nematomi, tod\u0117l visi kiekybiniai \u012fver\u010diai yra apatin\u0117s ribos. LLM \u017eym\u0117jimas netobulas: modeli\u0173 sutarimas d\u0117l labiausiai interpretacinio lauko (s\u0105lygotumas lytimi) yra vidutinis (\u03ba=0,36\u20130,65 skirtingose porose), tai kompensavome arbitra\u017eu, atsargiomis formuluot\u0117mis ir rankiniu pagrindini\u0173 atvej\u0173 patikrinimu. Smurtautoj\u0173 priskyrimas grind\u017eiamas dokument\u0173 turiniu ir \u0161altiniu, o ne technine ekspertize.<\/p>\n

K\u0105 su tuo daryti<\/strong><\/p>\n

Baltarusijos patirtis svarbi visam Ryt\u0173 partneryst\u0117s regionui d\u0117l dviej\u0173 prie\u017eas\u010di\u0173. Prievartos praktikas jau perima kaimynai, o koordinuot\u0173 i\u0161puoli\u0173 infrastrukt\u016bra yra pigi ir lengvai atkuriama bet kurioje \u0161alyje su i\u0161pl\u0117totu prore\u017eiminiu \u201eTelegram\u201c tinklu. I\u0161 to i\u0161plaukia trys praktin\u0117s i\u0161vados.<\/p>\n

Pirma. Moter\u0173 politikoje ir \u017eurnalistikoje apsaugos mechanizmai turi atsi\u017evelgti \u012f valstyb\u0119 kaip smurtautoj\u0105. Standartiniai platform\u0173 protokolai, sukurti tarpasmeniniam smurtui ir teis\u0117saugai kaip neutraliai \u0161aliai, \u0161ioje konfig\u016bracijoje neveikia: Baltarusijoje j\u0117gos strukt\u016bros, nuo milicijos ir GUBOPiK iki KGB ir Tyrim\u0173 komiteto, pa\u010dios yra smurtautojos.<\/p>\n

Antra. Dokumentavimas pagal standartus, tinkamus b\u016bsimai atskaitomybei (s\u0117jimo datos, kanal\u0173 tinklai, retransliacijos grandin\u0117s), turi prasid\u0117ti jau dabar. M\u016bs\u0173 metodas rodo, kad tai \u012fgyvendinama remiantis atvirais duomenimis.<\/p>\n

Tre\u010dia. Parama aukoms turi apimti greit\u0105 paneigim\u0105 ir teisin\u0119 pagalb\u0105 ES jurisdikcijose, kuriose gyvena daugelis i\u0161puoli\u0173 taikini\u0173. Teisinis pagrindas tam atsiranda: Latvijos 145\u00b9 straipsnis nuo 2026 m. baland\u017eio tiesiogiai apima dirbtinio intelekto sugeneruot\u0105 intymi\u0105 med\u017eiag\u0105, o Lietuva ir Lenkija, perkeldamos Direktyv\u0105 2024\/1385, privalo \u012fvesti analogi\u0161kas normas iki 2027 m. bir\u017eelio. \u012erankiai organizacijoms jau egzistuoja, \u012fskaitant \u201eEU Neighbours East\u201c programos i\u0161leist\u0105 skaitmeninio saugumo vadov\u0105 moter\u0173 organizacijoms. Ir galiausiai: penkios i\u0161 \u0161e\u0161i\u0173 Ryt\u0173 partneryst\u0117s \u0161ali\u0173 yra Rekomendacijos CM\/Rec(2026)2 adresat\u0117s kaip Europos Tarybos nar\u0117s. Baltarusija lieka u\u017e vis\u0173 \u0161i\u0173 r\u0117m\u0173, ir b\u016btent tod\u0117l jos moter\u0173 apsauga priklauso nuo kaimyn\u0173.<\/p>\n

\nMetodologinis priedas: modeli\u0173 sutarimas<\/strong><\/p>\n

Dokumentus nepriklausomai ir aklai kodavo du LLM anotatoriai (GPT-5.6-luna, OpenAI; Claude Haiku 4.5, Anthropic); nesutarimus sprend\u0117 tre\u010dias anotatorius (Claude Sonnet 4.6, Anthropic), galutin\u0117 \u017eyma nustatyta 2 i\u0161 3 bals\u0173 dauguma.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Laukas<\/th>\n\u03ba (luna\/haiku)<\/th>\nPirminis sutarimas<\/th>\nN<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Relevanti\u0161kumas<\/td>\n0,56<\/td>\n81 %<\/td>\n7 812<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Smurto forma<\/td>\n0,71<\/td>\n77 %<\/td>\n1 592<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Dokumento funkcija<\/td>\n0,69<\/td>\n83 %<\/td>\n1 592<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
S\u0105lygotumas lytimi<\/td>\n0,36<\/td>\n55 %<\/td>\n1 592<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Aukos lytis<\/td>\n0,83<\/td>\n89 %<\/td>\n1 592<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Smurtautojo tipas<\/td>\n0,71<\/td>\n78 %<\/td>\n1 592<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

S\u0105lyginiai laukai skai\u010diuoti dokumentuose, kuriuos abu anotatoriai pripa\u017eino relevanti\u0161kais. Koheno kapa koreguoja pirmin\u012f sutarim\u0105 pagal atsitiktin\u012f sutapim\u0105; interpretacija pagal Landiso ir Kocho skal\u0119. \u017dema kapa pagal s\u0105lygotum\u0105 lytimi atspindi kategorijos \u201eunclear\u201c interpretacin\u012f pob\u016bd\u012f ir kompensuojama arbitra\u017eu (arbitro sutarimas su haiku \u0161iame lauke \u03ba=0,65) bei rankiniu patikrinimu. 64 % galutini\u0173 \u017eym\u0173 vieningos, 20 % priimtos bals\u0173 dauguma, 16 % lemiamu arbitro balsu. Rankinis patikrinimas ap\u0117m\u0117 visus dokumentus apie seksualizuotas klastotes, abi 2025 m. bangas ir pagrindinius atvejus; pagal jo rezultatus penki dokumentai per\u017eym\u0117ti (suk\u010diavimas ir prevencija vietoje seksualizuot\u0173 klasto\u010di\u0173), tai atsispindi pateiktuose skai\u010diuose.<\/p>\n

Duomenys: FORESIGHT tekstynas, 7 814 dokument\u0173, 2018\u20132026 m. Kodas ir kod\u0173 knyga pateikiami pagal u\u017eklaus\u0105.<\/p>\n","protected":false,"raw":"TL;DR<\/strong>\r\n

Technologijomis palengvintas smurtas d\u0117l lyties (angl. technology-facilitated gender-based violence, TFGBV) tarptautin\u0117je literat\u016broje pirmiausia apra\u0161omas kaip tarpasmeninis: buv\u0119 partneriai, persekiotojai, anoniminiai troliai. Baltarusijos atvejis veikia kitaip.<\/p>\r\n

I\u0161analizavome 7 814 dokument\u0173 i\u0161 FORESIGHT tekstyno, apiman\u010dio valstybin\u0119, prore\u017eimin\u0119 ir nepriklausom\u0105 \u017einiasklaid\u0105 bei \u201eTelegram\u201c kanalus. Did\u017eiausia smurto d\u0117l lyties skaitmenin\u0117je erdv\u0117je vykdytoja Baltarusijos informacin\u0117je erdv\u0117je pasirod\u0117 esanti valstyb\u0117: j\u0117gos strukt\u016bros, propagandin\u0117 \u201eTelegram\u201c vertikal\u0117 ir valstybin\u0117 \u017einiasklaida kartu atsakingos u\u017e 42 % dokumentuot\u0173 su Baltarusija susijusi\u0173 smurto d\u0117l lyties atvej\u0173. Tai daugiau nei anoniminiai nusikalt\u0117liai (26 %) ir tarpasmeninis smurtas (19 %). O i\u0161 dokument\u0173, kurie patys yra smurto aktai (doksingas, seksualizuot\u0173 klasto\u010di\u0173 platinimas, ty\u010diojimasis i\u0161 auk\u0173), 99 % suk\u016br\u0117 valstybinis ir prore\u017eiminis segmentas.<\/p>\r\nKas yra TFGBV<\/strong>\r\n

Jungtini\u0173 Taut\u0173 gyventoj\u0173 fondas (UNFPA) TFGBV<\/a> apibr\u0117\u017eia kaip smurto akt\u0105, \u012fvykdyt\u0105, palengvint\u0105 arba sustiprint\u0105 skaitmenin\u0117mis medijomis ar informacin\u0117mis ir ry\u0161i\u0173 technologijomis ir nukreipt\u0105 \u012f asmen\u012f d\u0117l jo lyties. Tipologija apima doksing\u0105 (asmens duomen\u0173 paskelbim\u0105), intymi\u0173 vaizd\u0173 platinim\u0105 be sutikimo, seksualizuotus giluminius klastojimus (deepfake), seksualin\u012f \u0161anta\u017e\u0105 (sextortion), kibernetin\u012f persekiojim\u0105 ir priekabiavim\u0105 internete. Pagrindin\u0117 UNFPA sistemos mintis yra t\u0119stinumas: internete prasid\u0117j\u0119s smurtas eskaluojasi \u012f fizin\u0119 erdv\u0119, o moter\u0173 savicenz\u016bra d\u0117l skaitmeninio smurto gr\u0117sm\u0117s skurdina vie\u0161\u0105j\u0105 erdv\u0119 ir kenkia demokratijai.<\/p>\r\n

Teisinis \u0161io apibr\u0117\u017eimo r\u0117mas pastaraisiais metais tapo konkretus. GREVIO, Stambulo konvencijos steb\u0117senos institucija, 2021 m. pri\u0117m\u0117 Bendr\u0105j\u0105 rekomendacij\u0105 Nr. 1 d\u0117l smurto prie\u0161 moteris skaitmenin\u0117s dimensijos; CEDAW dar 2017 m. (Bendroji rekomendacija Nr. 35) i\u0161pl\u0117t\u0117 smurto d\u0117l lyties s\u0105vok\u0105 \u012f skaitmenin\u0119 aplink\u0105. ES direktyva 2024\/1385 \u012fpareigoja valstybes nares kriminalizuoti manipuliuotos intymios med\u017eiagos, \u012fskaitant giluminius klastojimus, platinim\u0105; perk\u0117limo terminas \u2013 2027 m. bir\u017eelio 14 d. Latvija jau \u012fved\u0117 atitinkam\u0105 Baud\u017eiamojo \u012fstatymo 145\u00b9 straipsn\u012f, galiojant\u012f nuo 2026 m. baland\u017eio 16 d. Galiausiai 2026 m. kov\u0105 Europos Tarybos Ministr\u0173 Komitetas pri\u0117m\u0117 Rekomendacij\u0105 CM\/Rec(2026)2 \u2013 pirm\u0105j\u012f tarptautin\u012f standart\u0105, skirt\u0105 b\u016btent atskaitomybei u\u017e technologijomis palengvint\u0105 smurt\u0105 prie\u0161 moteris ir mergaites. Visi \u0161ie instrumentai remiasi viena prielaida: valstyb\u0117 nori patraukti smurtautoj\u0105 atsakomyb\u0117n.<\/p>\r\n

M\u016bs\u0173 duomenys patvirtina t\u0119stinum\u0105, ta\u010diau rodo, kad Baltarusijoje jis institucionalizuotas, o tarptautin\u0117s sistemos prielaida negalioja. Asmens duomen\u0173 paskelbimas \u201eTelegram\u201c kanale ir po jo sekantis sulaikymas susij\u0119 ne atsitiktinai: tarp j\u0173 stovi GUBOPiK, Vyriausioji kovos su organizuotu nusikalstamumu valdyba, kuriai tokios publikacijos tarnauja kaip darbin\u0117 med\u017eiaga.<\/p>\r\n

Kaip matavome<\/h2>\r\n

I\u0161 FORESIGHT tekstyno (apie 3,6 mln. Baltarusijos informacin\u0117s erdv\u0117s dokument\u0173 2026 m. rugpj\u016b\u010dio duomenimis) pagal a\u0161tuonis paie\u0161kos indikatorius atrinkome 7 814 unikali\u0173 2018\u20132026 m. dokument\u0173. Indikatoriai: doksingas, intym\u016bs vaizdai, priekabiavimas internete, giluminiai klastojimai, seksualizuotos klastot\u0117s, priverstiniai \u201eatgailos vaizdo \u012fra\u0161ai\u201c, i\u0161puoliai prie\u0161 \u017eurnalistes ir aktyvistes, r\u0117minis diskursas apie skaitmenin\u012f smurt\u0105.<\/p>\r\n

Kiekvien\u0105 dokument\u0105 nepriklausomai kodavo du dideliais kalbos modeliais (LLM) gr\u012fsti anotatoriai pagal vien\u0105 kod\u0173 knyg\u0105, sudaryt\u0105 remiantis UNFPA \u017eodynu: relevanti\u0161kumas, smurto forma, s\u0105lygotumas lytimi, aukos lytis ir kategorija, smurtautojo tipas, dokumento funkcija (\u012fvykio nu\u0161vietimas arba pats smurto aktas). Modeli\u0173 sutarimas matuotas Koheno kapa: nuo \u03ba=0,83 (\u201ebeveik tobulas\u201c) pagal aukos lyt\u012f iki \u03ba=0,36 pagal s\u0105lygotumo lytimi lauk\u0105, labiausiai interpretacin\u012f kod\u0173 knygoje. Nesutarimus (34 % dokument\u0173) sprend\u0117 tre\u010dias, stipresnis LLM anotatorius, kodav\u0119s aklai; galutin\u0117 \u017eyma priskirta bals\u0173 dauguma. 64 % galutini\u0173 \u017eym\u0173 yra vieningos. Pagrindiniai atvejai, kuriais grind\u017eiamos i\u0161vados, papildomai patikrinti rankiniu b\u016bdu. Visa sutarimo lentel\u0117 pateikta metodologiniame priede.<\/p>\r\n

Rezultatas: 2 671 dokumentas pripa\u017eintas susijusiu su TFGBV; 2 420 i\u0161 j\u0173 susij\u0119 su Baltarusija, baltarusiais ar baltarusi\u0173 diaspora, likusieji nu\u0161vie\u010dia u\u017esienio atvejus. Ai\u0161k\u0173 s\u0105lygotum\u0105 lytimi (auka atakuojama kaip moteris arba per seksualizavim\u0105 ir ly\u010di\u0173 stereotipus) turi 868 dokumentai, i\u0161 j\u0173 711 susijusi\u0173 su Baltarusija. Kur teiginys lie\u010dia Baltarusijos ekosistem\u0105, toliau pateikiami su Baltarusija susijusio poaibio skai\u010diai. 87 % auk\u0173 \u0161ioje grup\u0117je yra moterys.<\/p>\r\n

Etin\u0117 pastaba. Publikacijoje vardais \u012fvardijamos tik tos moterys, kurios pa\u010dios pavie\u0161ino savo istorijas; neatkuriami nei vaizdai, nei nuorodos \u012f juos; apra\u0161omas modelis, o ne atskiros \u201einternetin\u0117s dramos\u201c.<\/p>\r\n

Darbo pasidalijimas: kas nu\u0161vie\u010dia smurt\u0105 ir kas j\u012f vykdo<\/h2>\r\n

Kod\u0173 knygoje i\u0161skirta dokumento funkcija: smurto atvejo nu\u0161vietimas, aukos liudijimas, prevencija arba smurto artefaktas, tai yra dokumentas, kuris pats yra smurto aktas: \u012fra\u0161as su asmens duomenimis, suklastot\u0173 intymi\u0173 vaizd\u0173 platinimas, ty\u010diojimasis i\u0161 aukos.<\/p>\r\n
Dokumento funkcija<\/th>Prore\u017eiminiai \u201eTelegram\u201c kanalai<\/th>Valstybin\u0117 \u017einiasklaida ir institucijos<\/th>Nepriklausoma \u017einiasklaida<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Nu\u0161vietimas<\/td>108<\/td>313<\/td>1 474<\/td><\/tr>
Smurto artefaktas<\/strong><\/td>195<\/strong><\/td>25<\/strong><\/td>1<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Kriminalin\u0117 kronika<\/td>1<\/td>136<\/td>56<\/td><\/tr>
Prevencija<\/td>4<\/td>103<\/td>12<\/td><\/tr>
Aukos liudijimas<\/td>1<\/td>1<\/td>60<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\r\n
\r\n\"Dokumento
1 pav. Dokumento funkcija pagal tekstyno segmentus. \u017daliai geltonas blokas: dokumentai, kurie patys yra smurto aktai.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n

I\u0161 222 smurto artefakt\u0173 220 (99 %) suk\u016br\u0117 valstybinis ir prore\u017eiminis segmentas. Smurt\u0105 vykdanti ir j\u012f dokumentuojanti ekosistemos prakti\u0161kai nesikerta. Valstybinis diskursas apie skaitmenin\u012f smurt\u0105 egzistuoja, bet tik dviem \u017eanrais: apoliti\u0161ka kriminalin\u0117 kronika (seksualinis \u0161anta\u017eas, suk\u010diai) ir \u201evaik\u0173 apsauga internete\u201c. R\u0117min\u0117 smurto d\u0117l lyties skaitmenin\u0117je erdv\u0117je kalba sutinkama 33 dokumentuose visame tekstyne, beveik vien nepriklausomame segmente.<\/p>\r\nBaltarusi\u0161ka forma: prievartinis vie\u0161as pa\u017eeminimas<\/strong>\r\n

Da\u017eniausia TFGBV forma tekstyne (850 dokument\u0173, i\u0161 j\u0173 825 susij\u0119 su Baltarusija) UNFPA tipologijoje neegzistuoja kaip atskira kategorija. Tai priverstiniai \u201eatgailos vaizdo \u012fra\u0161ai\u201c. J\u0117gos strukt\u016br\u0173 spaudimu \u012fra\u0161ytas vaizdo atsipra\u0161ymas, platinamas per provyriausybinius kanalus, sujungia prievart\u0105 realiame gyvenime su skaitmeniniu pa\u017eeminimu ir veikia kaip auditorijos bauginimo \u012frankis.<\/p>\r\n

\r\n\"TFGBV
2 pav. Smurto formos 2 671 dokumente: kiekvienas kvadratas \u2013 vienas dokumentas.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n

\u010cia b\u016btina paai\u0161kinti, k\u0105 Baltarusijos re\u017eimas laiko \u201esavais\u201c, o k\u0105 \u201esvetimais\u201c. Rib\u0105 nustato lojalumas, ne socialin\u0117 pad\u0117tis ir ne lytis: \u201esavi\u201c yra valstyb\u0117s aparatas, j\u0117gos strukt\u016bros, biud\u017eetinio sektoriaus darbuotojai ir lojali valstybin\u0117s \u017einiasklaidos auditorija; \u201esvetimais\u201c tampa visi, susij\u0119 su 2020 m. protestais, nepriklausoma \u017einiasklaida ar diaspora. Prore\u017eimini\u0173 kanal\u0173 \u017eodyne, gerai matomame m\u016bs\u0173 tekstyne, tai \u201ezmahary\u201c, \u201eekstremistai\u201c, \u201epab\u0117g\u0117liai\u201c. Lytis nulemia b\u016bd\u0105, kuriuo \u017emogus paver\u010diamas \u201esvetimu\u201c. I\u0161 moter\u0173 atimamas subjekti\u0161kumas per seksualizavim\u0105 ir vaidmenis: \u201eapsi\u0161auk\u0117l\u0117\u201c, \u201epab\u0117gusi zmaharka\u201c, \u201evir\u0117ja\u201c Cichanouskajos adresu, \u201eporno aktor\u0117\u201c Mentusovos adresu, kaltinimai, kad politik\u0117 \u201epaliko vaikus\u201c. I\u0161 vyr\u0173 atimamas vyri\u0161kumas: \u201ezmahariukai\u201c, \u201egaideliai\u201c, \u201ebailiai\u201c, seksualizuotas ty\u010diojimasis, oponento vaizdavimas bailiu ar i\u0161laikytiniu. Abiem atvejais tikslas tas pats: parodyti \u201esav\u0173\u201c auditorijai, kad \u201esvetimi\u201c nenusipelno nei pagarbos, nei apsaugos.<\/p>\r\n

Svarbu, kad \u201esavo\u201c statusas yra s\u0105lyginis ir at\u0161aukiamas nukrypimo akimirk\u0105. 2026 m. liep\u0105 Homelio rajono valstybinio laikra\u0161\u010dio vyriausioji redaktor\u0117, leidusi sau sukritikuoti vald\u017eiai lojali\u0105 muzikos grup\u0119, \u012fra\u0161\u0117 \u201eatgailos vaizdo \u012fra\u0161\u0105\u201c su atsipra\u0161ymu. Dar vakar \u201esava\u201c, ji buvo vie\u0161ai perkelta \u012f \u201esvetimus\u201c tuo pa\u010diu \u012frankiu, paprastai taikomu re\u017eimo oponentams.<\/p>\r\n

Praktika jau kerta sienas: 2026 m. nepriklausoma \u017einiasklaida u\u017efiksavo, kad \u201eatsipra\u0161ymo vaizdo \u012fra\u0161us\u201c pagal baltarusi\u0161k\u0105 model\u012f prad\u0117jo \u012fra\u0161in\u0117ti Azerbaid\u017eano j\u0117gos strukt\u016bros.<\/p>\r\nValstyb\u0117: did\u017eiausia smurtautoja<\/strong>\r\n

711 su Baltarusija susijusi\u0173 dokument\u0173 su nustatytu s\u0105lygotumu lytimi smurtautoj\u0173 pasiskirstymas atrodo taip. Valstybin\u0117 grup\u0117: j\u0117gos strukt\u016bros (189), prore\u017eiminiai \u201eTelegram\u201c kanalai (90), valstybin\u0117 \u017einiasklaida (22), i\u0161 viso 301 atvejis, arba 42 %. Anoniminiai nusikalt\u0117liai: 182 (26 %). Tarpasmeninis smurtas: 138 (19 %). Daugumoje \u201evalstybini\u0173\u201c atvej\u0173 aukos yra moterys.<\/p>\r\n

I\u0161kalbingas atvejis: 2025 m. rugs\u0117j\u012f \u017eurnalist\u0117 Larysa \u0160\u010dyrakova vie\u0161ai papasakojo, kad po jos sulaikymo j\u0117gos strukt\u016br\u0173 pareig\u016bnai paskelb\u0117 jos intymias nuotraukas pa\u017ein\u010di\u0173 svetain\u0117je. \u0160ioje istorijoje surinkti visi elementai, apie kuriuos kalbama publikacijoje. Smurt\u0105 vykdo valstyb\u0117, anoniminio persekiotojo \u0161ioje istorijoje n\u0117ra; smurto forma, intymi\u0173 vaizd\u0173 platinimas be sutikimo, paimta i\u0161 klasikin\u0117s TFGBV tipologijos; grandin\u0117 prasideda krata ir technikos pa\u0117mimu, o t\u0119siasi internete; o tikslas yra \u017eurnalist\u0117s pa\u017eeminimas b\u016btent kaip moters.<\/p>\r\nKoordinuotos bangos: i\u0161puoli\u0173 infrastrukt\u016bra<\/strong>\r\n

Tekstynas leid\u017eia rekonstruoti i\u0161puolius kaip operacijas: su s\u0117jimo datomis, kanal\u0173 tinklu ir vaidmen\u0173 pasiskirstymu.<\/p>\r\n

2025 m. baland\u017eio 9\u201310 d. banga.<\/strong> Per dvi dienas septyni smurto \u012fra\u0161ai penkiuose prore\u017eiminiuose kanaluose (\u201e\u017doltyje slivy\u201c, \u201eNewsSliv\u201c, \u201eKrysolOFF\u201c, \u201eBELARUSKAJA KUCHNIA\u201c, \u201ePEREOBUTAJA realnost\u201c) atakuoja vien\u0105 taikin\u012f \u2013 Maryn\u0105 Mentusov\u0105, \u201eBelsat\u201c kanalo laidos \u201eOby\u010dnoje utro\u201c ved\u0117j\u0105. Du vektoriai: dirbtinio intelekto sugeneruoti \u201eintym\u016bs\u201c vaizdai \u012fkeliami \u012f pornografin\u0119 svetain\u0119 jos vardu, o suklastotos nuotraukos platinamos su nuorodomis \u012f pornografin\u0119 platform\u0105. Valstybin\u0117s televizijos ved\u0117jas Ryhoras Azaronakas bang\u0105 palydi pa\u0161aipiu metakomentaru su kalamb\u016bru apie jos laidos pavadinim\u0105. Nepriklausomi leidiniai atsako t\u0105 pa\u010di\u0105 dien\u0105, pati Mentusova vie\u0161ai prabyla po trij\u0173 savai\u010di\u0173, ta\u010diau asimetrija akivaizdi: klastot\u0117s suk\u016brimas kainuoja minutes, paneigimas kainuoja reputacin\u0119 \u017eal\u0105 visam laikui.<\/p>\r\n

\r\n\"I\u0161puolio
3 pav. 2025 m. baland\u017eio 9\u201310 d. bangos anatomija: juostos atitinka informacines aplinkas, rodykl\u0117s rodo naratyvo jud\u0117jim\u0105.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n

2025 m. rugpj\u016b\u010dio 7 d. banga.<\/strong> \u0160e\u0161i to paties tinklo kanalai (\u201eSlivy\u201c \u0161eima, \u201eSmotri na mir otkrytymi glazami\u201c, \u201ePEREOBUTAJA realnost\u201c) sinchroni\u0161kai platina \u201eskandaling\u0105 vaizdo \u012fra\u0161\u0105\u201c, nukreipt\u0105 prie\u0161 Sviatlan\u0105 Cichanouskaj\u0105. Mechanika identi\u0161ka baland\u017eio bangai; taikinys \u2013 labiausiai atpa\u017e\u012fstama \u0161alies politik\u0117. Tai chrestomatinis pavyzdys to, k\u0105 tyr\u0117jai vadina dezinformacija d\u0117l lyties: politik\u0117s diskreditavimas per seksualizavim\u0105 ir kompromat\u0105 vietoje jos pozicijos kritikos.<\/p>\r\n

Abiej\u0173 bang\u0173 s\u0117j\u0117jai sudaro branduol\u012f to paties anoniminio \u201egeltonojo\u201c propagandin\u0117s \u201eTelegram\u201c vertikal\u0117s sluoksnio, kur\u012f FactCheck.LT apra\u0161\u0117 prore\u017eiminio \u201eTelegram\u201c lauko tyrime. Du tre\u010ddalius tekstyno doksingo diskurso sukuria du preki\u0173 \u017eenklai: \u201e\u017doltyje slivy\u201c (139 dokumentai TFGBV indikatoriuose) ir \u201eNewsSliv\u201c (126). Smurtas d\u0117l lyties priklauso \u012fprastam \u0161ios infrastrukt\u016bros repertuarui greta doksingo ir priekabiavimo.<\/p>\r\n

\r\n\"Kanal\u0173
4 pav. Kas s\u0117ja ir kas platina: prore\u017eiminio \u201eTelegram\u201c tinklo sluoksniai pagal dokument\u0173 skai\u010di\u0173 TFGBV atrankoje.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n
\r\n\"Dvi
5 pav. Smurto artefaktai valstybiniame ir prore\u017eiminiame segmentuose pagal m\u0117nesius: 2025 m. baland\u017eio ir rugpj\u016b\u010dio pikai visi\u0161kai s\u0105lygoti lytimi.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\nKieno aukos statusas skai\u010diuojamas: asimetrija<\/strong>\r\n

Valstybin\u0117 ekosistema moka piktintis giluminiais klastojimais, kai aukos yra savos. 2026 m. kov\u0105 istorij\u0105 apie \u201esuk\u010di\u0173 giluminius Ryhoro Azaronako klastojimus\u201c sinchroni\u0161kai i\u0161platino de\u0161imtys valstybin\u0117s vertikal\u0117s kanal\u0173, iki pat rajonini\u0173 ir gamyklini\u0173 (\u201eKri\u010devcementno\u0161ifer\u201c, \u201eSteklozavod NEMAN\u201c, \u201e\u010cAS PIK CHOTIMSK\u201c). Tekstyne veikia net prore\u017eiminis kanalas \u201eNarodnyj Antifeik\u201c, demaskuojantis giluminius klastojimus, nukreiptus prie\u0161 pareig\u016bnus.<\/p>\r\n

Asimetrijos skai\u010diai pagal su Baltarusija susijusius dokumentus. Tarp neseksualizuot\u0173 gilumini\u0173 klastojim\u0173 (suk\u010diavimas, politin\u0117s klastot\u0117s; 379 dokumentai) auk\u0173 vyr\u0173 daugiau nei dvigubai daugiau nei moter\u0173: 228 prie\u0161 104. Tai pareig\u016bnai ir propagandistai, ir j\u0173 atvejai sulaukia \u201egynybos\u201c kampanijos. Tarp seksualizuot\u0173 klasto\u010di\u0173 (29 dokumentai) auk\u0173 moterys sudaro 88 % nustatyt\u0173 auk\u0173 (23 prie\u0161 3), o j\u0173 atvejus ta pati ekosistema kuria ir platina: 14 i\u0161 29 dokument\u0173 yra smurto artefaktai, 11 i\u0161 j\u0173 nukreipti prie\u0161 moteris.<\/p>\r\n

\r\n\"Asimetrija\"
6 pav. Auk\u0173 lytis pagal klastot\u0117s tip\u0105, su Baltarusija susij\u0119 dokumentai.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n

Dvi i\u0161lygos \u0161iam palyginimui. Skai\u010diuojami dokumentai, o ne incidentai: viena kovo istorija apie Azaronako giluminius klastojimus dav\u0117 daugiau nei trisde\u0161imt dokument\u0173, tod\u0117l vyr\u0173 persvara i\u0161 dalies matuoja gynybos kampanijos intensyvum\u0105, ir b\u016btent tai yra pats rei\u0161kinys. Be to, kategorijos skiriasi funkcija: giluminiai klastojimai atstovaujami daugiausia gynybinio nu\u0161vietimo, seksualizuotos klastot\u0117s apima pa\u010dius smurto aktus. Tod\u0117l palyginimas rodo ne tai, kas da\u017eniau atakuojamas, o tai, kieno aukos status\u0105 ekosistema pripa\u017e\u012fsta ir gina. I\u0161kalbinga, kad Azaronakas stovi abiejose pus\u0117se: 2025 m. baland\u012f jis ty\u010diojasi i\u0161 Mentusovos, 2026 m. kov\u0105 visa vertikal\u0117 gina j\u012f nuo giluminio klastojimo. Kai giluminis klastojimas nukreiptas prie\u0161 sistemos vyr\u0105, jis vadinamas suk\u010di\u0173 ir prie\u0161\u0173 i\u0161puoliu. Kai seksualizuota klastot\u0117 nukreipta prie\u0161 aktyvist\u0119, ji vadinama turiniu.<\/p>\r\nT\u0119stinumas ir vaizdo ribos<\/strong>\r\n

Interneto ir realaus gyvenimo t\u0119stinumas, kur\u012f UNFPA apra\u0161o kaip rizik\u0105, Baltarusijos duomenyse yra norma. 1 328 dokumentai, pus\u0117 relevantaus tekstyno (1 272 i\u0161 j\u0173 susij\u0119 su Baltarusija), fiksuoja per\u0117jim\u0105 tarp skaitmeninio ir fizinio smurto: doksingas, po kurio seka sulaikymas; sulaikymas, po kurio seka \u201eatgailos vaizdo \u012fra\u0161as\u201c.<\/p>\r\n

Dvi i\u0161lygos d\u0117l i\u0161samumo. Pirma, smurtas d\u0117l lyties skaitmenin\u0117je erdv\u0117je nukreiptas ne tik prie\u0161 moteris: 46 dokumentai fiksuoja vyrus, tapusius lytimi s\u0105lygot\u0173 i\u0161puoli\u0173 aukomis, nuo grasinim\u0173 i\u0161\u017eaginti baltarusi\u0173 savanor\u012f Ukrainoje iki prore\u017eimini\u0173 kanal\u0173 seksualizuoto ty\u010diojimosi i\u0161 aktyvist\u0173. Mechanizmas tas pats: kontrol\u0117 per seksualizuot\u0105 pa\u017eeminim\u0105. Antra, kaltinimai priekabiavimu kyla ir demokratin\u0117s bendruomen\u0117s viduje: 2025 m. ruden\u012f keli tokie atvejai baig\u0117si nu\u0161alinimais ir vidiniais tyrimais diasporos organizacijose. Mes nevertiname \u0161i\u0173 kaltinim\u0173 esm\u0117s. M\u016bs\u0173 siu\u017eetui svarb\u016bs du faktai: bendruomen\u0117s viduje, kitaip nei valstyb\u0117je, veikia atskaitomyb\u0117s mechanizmai, o kiekvien\u0105 tok\u012f atvej\u012f prore\u017eiminiai kanalai nedelsdami instrumentalizuoja kaip kur\u0105 dezinformacijai d\u0117l lyties.<\/p>\r\nApribojimai<\/strong>\r\n

Tekstynas atspindi smurto matomum\u0105 \u017einiasklaidoje, o ne jo paplitim\u0105: atvejai, nepatek\u0119 \u012f \u017einiasklaid\u0105 ir \u201eTelegram\u201c, mums nematomi, tod\u0117l visi kiekybiniai \u012fver\u010diai yra apatin\u0117s ribos. LLM \u017eym\u0117jimas netobulas: modeli\u0173 sutarimas d\u0117l labiausiai interpretacinio lauko (s\u0105lygotumas lytimi) yra vidutinis (\u03ba=0,36\u20130,65 skirtingose porose), tai kompensavome arbitra\u017eu, atsargiomis formuluot\u0117mis ir rankiniu pagrindini\u0173 atvej\u0173 patikrinimu. Smurtautoj\u0173 priskyrimas grind\u017eiamas dokument\u0173 turiniu ir \u0161altiniu, o ne technine ekspertize.<\/p>\r\nK\u0105 su tuo daryti<\/strong>\r\n

Baltarusijos patirtis svarbi visam Ryt\u0173 partneryst\u0117s regionui d\u0117l dviej\u0173 prie\u017eas\u010di\u0173. Prievartos praktikas jau perima kaimynai, o koordinuot\u0173 i\u0161puoli\u0173 infrastrukt\u016bra yra pigi ir lengvai atkuriama bet kurioje \u0161alyje su i\u0161pl\u0117totu prore\u017eiminiu \u201eTelegram\u201c tinklu. I\u0161 to i\u0161plaukia trys praktin\u0117s i\u0161vados.<\/p>\r\n

Pirma. Moter\u0173 politikoje ir \u017eurnalistikoje apsaugos mechanizmai turi atsi\u017evelgti \u012f valstyb\u0119 kaip smurtautoj\u0105. Standartiniai platform\u0173 protokolai, sukurti tarpasmeniniam smurtui ir teis\u0117saugai kaip neutraliai \u0161aliai, \u0161ioje konfig\u016bracijoje neveikia: Baltarusijoje j\u0117gos strukt\u016bros, nuo milicijos ir GUBOPiK iki KGB ir Tyrim\u0173 komiteto, pa\u010dios yra smurtautojos.<\/p>\r\n

Antra. Dokumentavimas pagal standartus, tinkamus b\u016bsimai atskaitomybei (s\u0117jimo datos, kanal\u0173 tinklai, retransliacijos grandin\u0117s), turi prasid\u0117ti jau dabar. M\u016bs\u0173 metodas rodo, kad tai \u012fgyvendinama remiantis atvirais duomenimis.<\/p>\r\n

Tre\u010dia. Parama aukoms turi apimti greit\u0105 paneigim\u0105 ir teisin\u0119 pagalb\u0105 ES jurisdikcijose, kuriose gyvena daugelis i\u0161puoli\u0173 taikini\u0173. Teisinis pagrindas tam atsiranda: Latvijos 145\u00b9 straipsnis nuo 2026 m. baland\u017eio tiesiogiai apima dirbtinio intelekto sugeneruot\u0105 intymi\u0105 med\u017eiag\u0105, o Lietuva ir Lenkija, perkeldamos Direktyv\u0105 2024\/1385, privalo \u012fvesti analogi\u0161kas normas iki 2027 m. bir\u017eelio. \u012erankiai organizacijoms jau egzistuoja, \u012fskaitant \u201eEU Neighbours East\u201c programos i\u0161leist\u0105 skaitmeninio saugumo vadov\u0105 moter\u0173 organizacijoms. Ir galiausiai: penkios i\u0161 \u0161e\u0161i\u0173 Ryt\u0173 partneryst\u0117s \u0161ali\u0173 yra Rekomendacijos CM\/Rec(2026)2 adresat\u0117s kaip Europos Tarybos nar\u0117s. Baltarusija lieka u\u017e vis\u0173 \u0161i\u0173 r\u0117m\u0173, ir b\u016btent tod\u0117l jos moter\u0173 apsauga priklauso nuo kaimyn\u0173.<\/p>\r\n

\r\nMetodologinis priedas: modeli\u0173 sutarimas<\/strong>\r\n

Dokumentus nepriklausomai ir aklai kodavo du LLM anotatoriai (GPT-5.6-luna, OpenAI; Claude Haiku 4.5, Anthropic); nesutarimus sprend\u0117 tre\u010dias anotatorius (Claude Sonnet 4.6, Anthropic), galutin\u0117 \u017eyma nustatyta 2 i\u0161 3 bals\u0173 dauguma.<\/p>\r\n
Laukas<\/th>\u03ba (luna\/haiku)<\/th>Pirminis sutarimas<\/th>N<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Relevanti\u0161kumas<\/td>0,56<\/td>81 %<\/td>7 812<\/td><\/tr>
Smurto forma<\/td>0,71<\/td>77 %<\/td>1 592<\/td><\/tr>
Dokumento funkcija<\/td>0,69<\/td>83 %<\/td>1 592<\/td><\/tr>
S\u0105lygotumas lytimi<\/td>0,36<\/td>55 %<\/td>1 592<\/td><\/tr>
Aukos lytis<\/td>0,83<\/td>89 %<\/td>1 592<\/td><\/tr>
Smurtautojo tipas<\/td>0,71<\/td>78 %<\/td>1 592<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\r\n

S\u0105lyginiai laukai skai\u010diuoti dokumentuose, kuriuos abu anotatoriai pripa\u017eino relevanti\u0161kais. Koheno kapa koreguoja pirmin\u012f sutarim\u0105 pagal atsitiktin\u012f sutapim\u0105; interpretacija pagal Landiso ir Kocho skal\u0119. \u017dema kapa pagal s\u0105lygotum\u0105 lytimi atspindi kategorijos \u201eunclear\u201c interpretacin\u012f pob\u016bd\u012f ir kompensuojama arbitra\u017eu (arbitro sutarimas su haiku \u0161iame lauke \u03ba=0,65) bei rankiniu patikrinimu. 64 % galutini\u0173 \u017eym\u0173 vieningos, 20 % priimtos bals\u0173 dauguma, 16 % lemiamu arbitro balsu. Rankinis patikrinimas ap\u0117m\u0117 visus dokumentus apie seksualizuotas klastotes, abi 2025 m. bangas ir pagrindinius atvejus; pagal jo rezultatus penki dokumentai per\u017eym\u0117ti (suk\u010diavimas ir prevencija vietoje seksualizuot\u0173 klasto\u010di\u0173), tai atsispindi pateiktuose skai\u010diuose.<\/p>\r\n

Duomenys: FORESIGHT tekstynas, 7 814 dokument\u0173, 2018\u20132026 m. Kodas ir kod\u0173 knyga pateikiami pagal u\u017eklaus\u0105.<\/p>\r\n"},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false,"raw":""},"author":1,"featured_media":5541,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_ru_post_content":"TL;DR<\/strong>\r\n

\u0422\u0435\u0445\u043d\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0438 \u043e\u043f\u043e\u0441\u0440\u0435\u0434\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u0433\u0435\u043d\u0434\u0435\u0440\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u043d\u0430\u0441\u0438\u043b\u0438\u0435 (technology-facilitated gender-based violence, TFGBV) \u0432 \u043c\u0435\u0436\u0434\u0443\u043d\u0430\u0440\u043e\u0434\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u043b\u0438\u0442\u0435\u0440\u0430\u0442\u0443\u0440\u0435 \u043e\u043f\u0438\u0441\u044b\u0432\u0430\u0435\u0442\u0441\u044f \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0436\u0434\u0435 \u0432\u0441\u0435\u0433\u043e \u043a\u0430\u043a \u043c\u0435\u0436\u043b\u0438\u0447\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u043d\u043e\u0435: \u0431\u044b\u0432\u0448\u0438\u0435 \u043f\u0430\u0440\u0442\u043d\u0451\u0440\u044b, \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0441\u043b\u0435\u0434\u043e\u0432\u0430\u0442\u0435\u043b\u0438, \u0430\u043d\u043e\u043d\u0438\u043c\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u0442\u0440\u043e\u043b\u043b\u0438. \u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0439 \u0441\u043b\u0443\u0447\u0430\u0439 \u0443\u0441\u0442\u0440\u043e\u0435\u043d \u0438\u043d\u0430\u0447\u0435.<\/p>\r\n

\u041c\u044b \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0438 7 814 \u0434\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u043e\u0432 \u0438\u0437 \u043a\u043e\u0440\u043f\u0443\u0441\u0430 FORESIGHT, \u043e\u0445\u0432\u0430\u0442\u044b\u0432\u0430\u044e\u0449\u0435\u0433\u043e \u0433\u043e\u0441\u0443\u0434\u0430\u0440\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435, \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0440\u0435\u0436\u0438\u043c\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u0438 \u043d\u0435\u0437\u0430\u0432\u0438\u0441\u0438\u043c\u044b\u0435 \u043c\u0435\u0434\u0438\u0430 \u0438 \u0442\u0435\u043b\u0435\u0433\u0440\u0430\u043c-\u043a\u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u044b. \u041a\u0440\u0443\u043f\u043d\u0435\u0439\u0448\u0438\u043c \u043f\u0435\u0440\u043f\u0435\u0442\u0440\u0430\u0442\u043e\u0440\u043e\u043c \u0433\u0435\u043d\u0434\u0435\u0440\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0446\u0438\u0444\u0440\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043d\u0430\u0441\u0438\u043b\u0438\u044f \u0432 \u0431\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0441\u043a\u043e\u043c \u0438\u043d\u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0446\u0438\u043e\u043d\u043d\u043e\u043c \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0435 \u043e\u043a\u0430\u0437\u0430\u043b\u043e\u0441\u044c \u0433\u043e\u0441\u0443\u0434\u0430\u0440\u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e: \u0441\u0438\u043b\u043e\u0432\u044b\u0435 \u0441\u0442\u0440\u0443\u043a\u0442\u0443\u0440\u044b, \u043f\u0440\u043e\u043f\u0430\u0433\u0430\u043d\u0434\u0438\u0441\u0442\u0441\u043a\u0430\u044f \u0442\u0435\u043b\u0435\u0433\u0440\u0430\u043c-\u0432\u0435\u0440\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0430\u043b\u044c \u0438 \u0433\u043e\u0441\u0443\u0434\u0430\u0440\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u043c\u0435\u0434\u0438\u0430 \u0432\u043c\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0435 \u043e\u0442\u0432\u0435\u0447\u0430\u044e\u0442 \u0437\u0430 42% \u0434\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0431\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0445 \u0441\u043b\u0443\u0447\u0430\u0435\u0432 \u0433\u0435\u043d\u0434\u0435\u0440\u043d\u043e-\u043e\u0431\u0443\u0441\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043b\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043d\u0430\u0441\u0438\u043b\u0438\u044f. \u042d\u0442\u043e \u0431\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0448\u0435, \u0447\u0435\u043c \u0430\u043d\u043e\u043d\u0438\u043c\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0443\u043f\u043d\u0438\u043a\u0438 (26%) \u0438 \u043c\u0435\u0436\u043b\u0438\u0447\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u043d\u0430\u0441\u0438\u043b\u0438\u0435 (19%). \u0410 \u0438\u0437 \u0434\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u043e\u0432, \u043a\u043e\u0442\u043e\u0440\u044b\u0435 \u0441\u0430\u043c\u0438 \u044f\u0432\u043b\u044f\u044e\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0430\u043a\u0442\u0430\u043c\u0438 \u043d\u0430\u0441\u0438\u043b\u0438\u044f (\u0434\u043e\u043a\u0441\u0438\u043d\u0433, \u0440\u0430\u0441\u043f\u0440\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0441\u0435\u043a\u0441\u0443\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0444\u0435\u0439\u043a\u043e\u0432, \u0433\u043b\u0443\u043c\u043b\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u043d\u0430\u0434 \u0436\u0435\u0440\u0442\u0432\u0430\u043c\u0438), 99% \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0438\u0437\u0432\u0435\u0434\u0435\u043d\u044b \u0433\u043e\u0441\u0443\u0434\u0430\u0440\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u043c \u0438 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0440\u0435\u0436\u0438\u043c\u043d\u044b\u043c \u0441\u0435\u0433\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u043e\u043c.<\/p>\r\n\u0427\u0442\u043e \u0442\u0430\u043a\u043e\u0435 TFGBV<\/strong>\r\n

\u0424\u043e\u043d\u0434 \u041e\u041e\u041d \u0432 \u043e\u0431\u043b\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u043d\u0430\u0440\u043e\u0434\u043e\u043d\u0430\u0441\u0435\u043b\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f (UNFPA) \u043e\u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0435\u043b\u044f\u0435\u0442 TFGBV<\/a> \u043a\u0430\u043a \u0430\u043a\u0442 \u043d\u0430\u0441\u0438\u043b\u0438\u044f, \u0441\u043e\u0432\u0435\u0440\u0448\u0451\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0439, \u043f\u043e\u0434\u0434\u0435\u0440\u0436\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u0438\u043b\u0438 \u0443\u0441\u0438\u043b\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u0441 \u0438\u0441\u043f\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0437\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0435\u043c \u0446\u0438\u0444\u0440\u043e\u0432\u044b\u0445 \u043c\u0435\u0434\u0438\u0430 \u0438\u043b\u0438 \u0438\u043d\u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0446\u0438\u043e\u043d\u043d\u043e-\u043a\u043e\u043c\u043c\u0443\u043d\u0438\u043a\u0430\u0446\u0438\u043e\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0442\u0435\u0445\u043d\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0439 \u0438 \u043d\u0430\u043f\u0440\u0430\u0432\u043b\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0442\u0438\u0432 \u0447\u0435\u043b\u043e\u0432\u0435\u043a\u0430 \u043f\u043e \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0437\u043d\u0430\u043a\u0443 \u0435\u0433\u043e \u0433\u0435\u043d\u0434\u0435\u0440\u0430. \u0422\u0438\u043f\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u044f \u0432\u043a\u043b\u044e\u0447\u0430\u0435\u0442 \u0434\u043e\u043a\u0441\u0438\u043d\u0433 (\u043f\u0443\u0431\u043b\u0438\u043a\u0430\u0446\u0438\u044e \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0441\u043e\u043d\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0434\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445), \u0440\u0430\u0441\u043f\u0440\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0438\u043d\u0442\u0438\u043c\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0438\u0437\u043e\u0431\u0440\u0430\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0439 \u0431\u0435\u0437 \u0441\u043e\u0433\u043b\u0430\u0441\u0438\u044f, \u0441\u0435\u043a\u0441\u0443\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u0434\u0438\u043f\u0444\u0435\u0439\u043a\u0438, \u0441\u0435\u043a\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0448\u043d, \u043a\u0438\u0431\u0435\u0440\u0441\u0442\u0430\u043b\u043a\u0438\u043d\u0433, \u043e\u043d\u043b\u0430\u0439\u043d-\u0445\u0430\u0440\u0430\u0441\u0441\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442. \u041a\u043b\u044e\u0447\u0435\u0432\u043e\u0439 \u0442\u0435\u0437\u0438\u0441 \u0440\u0430\u043c\u043a\u0438 UNFPA: \u043a\u043e\u043d\u0442\u0438\u043d\u0443\u0443\u043c. \u041d\u0430\u0441\u0438\u043b\u0438\u0435, \u043d\u0430\u0447\u0430\u0432\u0448\u0435\u0435\u0441\u044f \u043e\u043d\u043b\u0430\u0439\u043d, \u044d\u0441\u043a\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0440\u0443\u0435\u0442 \u0432 \u0444\u0438\u0437\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e, \u0430 \u0441\u0430\u043c\u043e\u0446\u0435\u043d\u0437\u0443\u0440\u0430 \u0436\u0435\u043d\u0449\u0438\u043d \u043f\u043e\u0434 \u0443\u0433\u0440\u043e\u0437\u043e\u0439 \u0446\u0438\u0444\u0440\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043d\u0430\u0441\u0438\u043b\u0438\u044f \u043e\u0431\u0435\u0434\u043d\u044f\u0435\u0442 \u043f\u0443\u0431\u043b\u0438\u0447\u043d\u0443\u044e \u0441\u0444\u0435\u0440\u0443 \u0438 \u0432\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0438\u0442 \u0434\u0435\u043c\u043e\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0442\u0438\u0438.<\/p>\r\n

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\u041d\u0430\u0448\u0438 \u0434\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u043f\u043e\u0434\u0442\u0432\u0435\u0440\u0436\u0434\u0430\u044e\u0442 \u043a\u043e\u043d\u0442\u0438\u043d\u0443\u0443\u043c, \u043d\u043e \u043f\u043e\u043a\u0430\u0437\u044b\u0432\u0430\u044e\u0442, \u0447\u0442\u043e \u0432 \u0443\u0441\u043b\u043e\u0432\u0438\u044f\u0445 \u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0438 \u043e\u043d \u0438\u043d\u0441\u0442\u0438\u0442\u0443\u0446\u0438\u043e\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d, \u0430 \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u043f\u043e\u0441\u044b\u043b\u043a\u0430 \u043c\u0435\u0436\u0434\u0443\u043d\u0430\u0440\u043e\u0434\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u0440\u0430\u043c\u043a\u0438 \u043d\u0435 \u0432\u044b\u043f\u043e\u043b\u043d\u044f\u0435\u0442\u0441\u044f. \u041f\u0443\u0431\u043b\u0438\u043a\u0430\u0446\u0438\u044f \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0441\u043e\u043d\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0434\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0432 \u0442\u0435\u043b\u0435\u0433\u0440\u0430\u043c-\u043a\u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0435 \u0438 \u043f\u043e\u0441\u043b\u0435\u0434\u0443\u044e\u0449\u0435\u0435 \u0437\u0430\u0434\u0435\u0440\u0436\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0441\u0432\u044f\u0437\u0430\u043d\u044b \u043d\u0435 \u0441\u0442\u0435\u0447\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435\u043c \u043e\u0431\u0441\u0442\u043e\u044f\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u0441\u0442\u0432: \u043c\u0435\u0436\u0434\u0443 \u043d\u0438\u043c\u0438 \u0441\u0442\u043e\u0438\u0442 \u0413\u0423\u0411\u041e\u041f\u0438\u041a, \u0434\u043b\u044f \u043a\u043e\u0442\u043e\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0442\u0430\u043a\u0438\u0435 \u043f\u0443\u0431\u043b\u0438\u043a\u0430\u0446\u0438\u0438 \u0441\u043b\u0443\u0436\u0430\u0442 \u0440\u0430\u0431\u043e\u0447\u0438\u043c \u043c\u0430\u0442\u0435\u0440\u0438\u0430\u043b\u043e\u043c.<\/p>\r\n\u041a\u0430\u043a \u043c\u044b \u0441\u0447\u0438\u0442\u0430\u043b\u0438<\/strong>\r\n

\u0418\u0437 \u043a\u043e\u0440\u043f\u0443\u0441\u0430 FORESIGHT (\u043e\u043a\u043e\u043b\u043e 3,6 \u043c\u0438\u043b\u043b\u0438\u043e\u043d\u0430 \u0434\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u043e\u0432 \u0431\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0438\u043d\u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0446\u0438\u043e\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043f\u043e\u043b\u044f \u043f\u043e \u0441\u043e\u0441\u0442\u043e\u044f\u043d\u0438\u044e \u043d\u0430 \u0430\u0432\u0433\u0443\u0441\u0442 2026 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430) \u043f\u043e \u0432\u043e\u0441\u044c\u043c\u0438 \u043f\u043e\u0438\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0432\u044b\u043c \u0438\u043d\u0434\u0438\u043a\u0430\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0430\u043c \u0431\u044b\u043b\u043e \u043e\u0442\u043e\u0431\u0440\u0430\u043d\u043e 7 814 \u0443\u043d\u0438\u043a\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0434\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u043e\u0432 \u0437\u0430 2018\u20132026 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u044b. \u0418\u043d\u0434\u0438\u043a\u0430\u0442\u043e\u0440\u044b: \u0434\u043e\u043a\u0441\u0438\u043d\u0433, \u0438\u043d\u0442\u0438\u043c\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u0438\u0437\u043e\u0431\u0440\u0430\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f, \u043e\u043d\u043b\u0430\u0439\u043d-\u0442\u0440\u0430\u0432\u043b\u044f, \u0434\u0438\u043f\u0444\u0435\u0439\u043a\u0438, \u0441\u0435\u043a\u0441\u0443\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u0444\u0435\u0439\u043a\u0438, \u043f\u0440\u0438\u043d\u0443\u0434\u0438\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u00ab\u043f\u043e\u043a\u0430\u044f\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u0432\u0438\u0434\u0435\u043e\u00bb, \u0430\u0442\u0430\u043a\u0438 \u043d\u0430 \u0436\u0435\u043d\u0449\u0438\u043d-\u0436\u0443\u0440\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0441\u0442\u043e\u043a \u0438 \u0430\u043a\u0442\u0438\u0432\u0438\u0441\u0442\u043e\u043a, \u0440\u0430\u043c\u043e\u0447\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u0434\u0438\u0441\u043a\u0443\u0440\u0441 \u043e \u0446\u0438\u0444\u0440\u043e\u0432\u043e\u043c \u043d\u0430\u0441\u0438\u043b\u0438\u0438.<\/p>\r\n

\u041a\u0430\u0436\u0434\u044b\u0439 \u0434\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442 \u043d\u0435\u0437\u0430\u0432\u0438\u0441\u0438\u043c\u043e \u043a\u043e\u0434\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0441\u044f \u0434\u0432\u0443\u043c\u044f LLM-\u0430\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0442\u0430\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0430\u043c\u0438 \u043f\u043e \u0435\u0434\u0438\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0443 \u043a\u043e\u0434\u0431\u0443\u043a\u0443, \u043f\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0440\u043e\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0443 \u043d\u0430 \u0433\u043b\u043e\u0441\u0441\u0430\u0440\u0438\u0438 UNFPA: \u0440\u0435\u043b\u0435\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0442\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c, \u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430 \u043d\u0430\u0441\u0438\u043b\u0438\u044f, \u0433\u0435\u043d\u0434\u0435\u0440\u043d\u0430\u044f \u043e\u0431\u0443\u0441\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043b\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c, \u043f\u043e\u043b \u0438 \u043a\u0430\u0442\u0435\u0433\u043e\u0440\u0438\u044f \u0436\u0435\u0440\u0442\u0432\u044b, \u0442\u0438\u043f \u043f\u0435\u0440\u043f\u0435\u0442\u0440\u0430\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0430, \u0444\u0443\u043d\u043a\u0446\u0438\u044f \u0434\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0430 (\u043e\u0441\u0432\u0435\u0449\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0441\u043e\u0431\u044b\u0442\u0438\u044f \u0438\u043b\u0438 \u0441\u0430\u043c \u0430\u043a\u0442 \u043d\u0430\u0441\u0438\u043b\u0438\u044f). \u041c\u0435\u0436\u043c\u043e\u0434\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u0441\u043e\u0433\u043b\u0430\u0441\u0438\u0435 \u0438\u0437\u043c\u0435\u0440\u044f\u043b\u043e\u0441\u044c \u043a\u0430\u043f\u043f\u043e\u0439 \u041a\u043e\u044d\u043d\u0430: \u043e\u0442 \u03ba=0.83 (\u00ab\u043f\u043e\u0447\u0442\u0438 \u0438\u0434\u0435\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0435\u00bb) \u043f\u043e \u043f\u043e\u043b\u0443 \u0436\u0435\u0440\u0442\u0432\u044b \u0434\u043e \u03ba=0.36 \u043f\u043e \u043f\u043e\u043b\u044e \u0433\u0435\u043d\u0434\u0435\u0440\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u043e\u0431\u0443\u0441\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043b\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438, \u0441\u0430\u043c\u043e\u043c\u0443 \u0438\u043d\u0442\u0435\u0440\u043f\u0440\u0435\u0442\u0430\u0442\u0438\u0432\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0443 \u0432 \u043a\u043e\u0434\u0431\u0443\u043a\u0435. \u0420\u0430\u0441\u0445\u043e\u0436\u0434\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f (34% \u0434\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u043e\u0432) \u0440\u0430\u0437\u0440\u0435\u0448\u0430\u043b \u0442\u0440\u0435\u0442\u0438\u0439, \u0431\u043e\u043b\u0435\u0435 \u0441\u0438\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0439 LLM-\u0430\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0442\u0430\u0442\u043e\u0440, \u043a\u043e\u0434\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u0432\u0448\u0438\u0439 \u0432\u0441\u043b\u0435\u043f\u0443\u044e; \u0444\u0438\u043d\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430\u044f \u043c\u0435\u0442\u043a\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0441\u0432\u0430\u0438\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0430\u0441\u044c \u0431\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0448\u0438\u043d\u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e\u043c \u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0441\u043e\u0432. 64% \u0444\u0438\u043d\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u043c\u0435\u0442\u043e\u043a \u0435\u0434\u0438\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043b\u0430\u0441\u043d\u044b. \u042f\u0434\u0440\u043e \u043a\u0435\u0439\u0441\u043e\u0432, \u043d\u0430 \u043a\u043e\u0442\u043e\u0440\u044b\u0445 \u0441\u0442\u0440\u043e\u044f\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0432\u044b\u0432\u043e\u0434\u044b, \u0434\u043e\u043f\u043e\u043b\u043d\u0438\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e \u0432\u0435\u0440\u0438\u0444\u0438\u0446\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043e \u0432\u0440\u0443\u0447\u043d\u0443\u044e. \u041f\u043e\u043b\u043d\u0430\u044f \u0442\u0430\u0431\u043b\u0438\u0446\u0430 \u0441\u043e\u0433\u043b\u0430\u0441\u0438\u044f \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0432\u0435\u0434\u0435\u043d\u0430 \u0432 \u043c\u0435\u0442\u043e\u0434\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u043e\u043c \u043f\u0440\u0438\u043b\u043e\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0438.<\/p>\r\n

\u0418\u0442\u043e\u0433: 2 671 \u0434\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442 \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0437\u043d\u0430\u043d \u043e\u0442\u043d\u043e\u0441\u044f\u0449\u0438\u043c\u0441\u044f \u043a TFGBV; 2 420 \u0438\u0437 \u043d\u0438\u0445 \u043a\u0430\u0441\u0430\u044e\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0438, \u0431\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u043e\u0432 \u0438\u043b\u0438 \u0431\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0439 \u0434\u0438\u0430\u0441\u043f\u043e\u0440\u044b, \u043e\u0441\u0442\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u043e\u0441\u0432\u0435\u0449\u0430\u044e\u0442 \u0437\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0431\u0435\u0436\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u043a\u0435\u0439\u0441\u044b. \u0421 \u044f\u0432\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u0433\u0435\u043d\u0434\u0435\u0440\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u043e\u0431\u0443\u0441\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043b\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c\u044e \u043d\u0430\u0441\u0438\u043b\u0438\u044f (\u0436\u0435\u0440\u0442\u0432\u0430 \u0430\u0442\u0430\u043a\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0430 \u043a\u0430\u043a \u0436\u0435\u043d\u0449\u0438\u043d\u0430 \u0438\u043b\u0438 \u0447\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0437 \u0441\u0435\u043a\u0441\u0443\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437\u0430\u0446\u0438\u044e \u0438 \u0433\u0435\u043d\u0434\u0435\u0440\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u0441\u0442\u0435\u0440\u0435\u043e\u0442\u0438\u043f\u044b) \u0440\u0430\u0437\u043c\u0435\u0447\u0435\u043d\u043e 868 \u0434\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u043e\u0432, \u0438\u0437 \u043d\u0438\u0445 711 \u0431\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0445. \u0422\u0430\u043c, \u0433\u0434\u0435 \u0443\u0442\u0432\u0435\u0440\u0436\u0434\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u043a\u0430\u0441\u0430\u0435\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0431\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0439 \u044d\u043a\u043e\u0441\u0438\u0441\u0442\u0435\u043c\u044b, \u043d\u0438\u0436\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0432\u043e\u0434\u044f\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0446\u0438\u0444\u0440\u044b \u043f\u043e \u0431\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0441\u043a\u043e\u043c\u0443 \u043f\u043e\u0434\u043c\u043d\u043e\u0436\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0443. 87% \u0436\u0435\u0440\u0442\u0432 \u0432 \u044d\u0442\u043e\u0439 \u0433\u0440\u0443\u043f\u043f\u0435 \u0441\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0430\u0432\u043b\u044f\u044e\u0442 \u0436\u0435\u043d\u0449\u0438\u043d\u044b.<\/p>\r\n

\u042d\u0442\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u0438\u043c\u0435\u0447\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0435. \u041f\u0443\u0431\u043b\u0438\u043a\u0430\u0446\u0438\u044f \u043d\u0430\u0437\u044b\u0432\u0430\u0435\u0442 \u043f\u043e \u0438\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0438 \u0442\u043e\u043b\u044c\u043a\u043e \u0442\u0435\u0445 \u0436\u0435\u043d\u0449\u0438\u043d, \u043a\u043e\u0442\u043e\u0440\u044b\u0435 \u0441\u0430\u043c\u0438 \u0441\u0434\u0435\u043b\u0430\u043b\u0438 \u0441\u0432\u043e\u0438 \u0438\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0438\u0438 \u043f\u0443\u0431\u043b\u0438\u0447\u043d\u044b\u043c\u0438, \u043d\u0435 \u0432\u043e\u0441\u043f\u0440\u043e\u0438\u0437\u0432\u043e\u0434\u0438\u0442 \u043d\u0438 \u0438\u0437\u043e\u0431\u0440\u0430\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0439, \u043d\u0438 \u0441\u0441\u044b\u043b\u043e\u043a \u043d\u0430 \u043d\u0438\u0445 \u0438 \u043e\u043f\u0438\u0441\u044b\u0432\u0430\u0435\u0442 \u043f\u0430\u0442\u0442\u0435\u0440\u043d, \u0430 \u043d\u0435 \u043e\u0442\u0434\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u00ab\u043e\u043d\u043b\u0430\u0439\u043d-\u0434\u0440\u0430\u043c\u044b\u00bb.<\/p>\r\n\u0420\u0430\u0437\u0434\u0435\u043b\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0442\u0440\u0443\u0434\u0430: \u043a\u0442\u043e \u043e\u0441\u0432\u0435\u0449\u0430\u0435\u0442 \u0438 \u043a\u0442\u043e \u0441\u043e\u0432\u0435\u0440\u0448\u0430\u0435\u0442<\/strong>\r\n

\u041a\u043e\u0434\u0431\u0443\u043a \u0440\u0430\u0437\u043b\u0438\u0447\u0430\u043b \u0444\u0443\u043d\u043a\u0446\u0438\u044e \u0434\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0430: \u043e\u0441\u0432\u0435\u0449\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0441\u043b\u0443\u0447\u0430\u044f \u043d\u0430\u0441\u0438\u043b\u0438\u044f (coverage), \u0441\u0432\u0438\u0434\u0435\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e \u0436\u0435\u0440\u0442\u0432\u044b, \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0444\u0438\u043b\u0430\u043a\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0430, \u043b\u0438\u0431\u043e \u043f\u0435\u0440\u043f\u0435\u0442\u0440\u0430\u0446\u0438\u043e\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u0430\u0440\u0442\u0435\u0444\u0430\u043a\u0442, \u0442\u043e \u0435\u0441\u0442\u044c \u0434\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442, \u043a\u043e\u0442\u043e\u0440\u044b\u0439 \u0441\u0430\u043c \u044f\u0432\u043b\u044f\u0435\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0430\u043a\u0442\u043e\u043c \u043d\u0430\u0441\u0438\u043b\u0438\u044f: \u043f\u043e\u0441\u0442 \u0441 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0441\u043e\u043d\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u043c\u0438 \u0434\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u043c\u0438, \u0440\u0430\u0441\u043f\u0440\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0444\u0435\u0439\u043a\u043e\u0432\u044b\u0445 \u0438\u043d\u0442\u0438\u043c\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0438\u0437\u043e\u0431\u0440\u0430\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0439, \u0433\u043b\u0443\u043c\u043b\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u043d\u0430\u0434 \u0436\u0435\u0440\u0442\u0432\u043e\u0439.<\/p>\r\n
\u0424\u0443\u043d\u043a\u0446\u0438\u044f \u0434\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0430<\/th>\u041f\u0440\u043e\u0440\u0435\u0436\u0438\u043c\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u0422\u0413<\/th>\u0413\u043e\u0441\u043c\u0435\u0434\u0438\u0430 \u0438 \u0433\u043e\u0441\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0443\u043a\u0442\u0443\u0440\u044b<\/th>\u041d\u0435\u0437\u0430\u0432\u0438\u0441\u0438\u043c\u044b\u0435<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
\u041e\u0441\u0432\u0435\u0449\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 (coverage)<\/td>108<\/td>313<\/td>1 474<\/td><\/tr>
\u041f\u0435\u0440\u043f\u0435\u0442\u0440\u0430\u0446\u0438\u043e\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u0430\u0440\u0442\u0435\u0444\u0430\u043a\u0442<\/strong><\/td>195<\/strong><\/td>25<\/strong><\/td>1<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\u041a\u0440\u0438\u043c\u0438\u043d\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430\u044f \u0445\u0440\u043e\u043d\u0438\u043a\u0430<\/td>1<\/td>136<\/td>56<\/td><\/tr>
\u041f\u0440\u043e\u0444\u0438\u043b\u0430\u043a\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0430<\/td>4<\/td>103<\/td>12<\/td><\/tr>
\u0421\u0432\u0438\u0434\u0435\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e \u0436\u0435\u0440\u0442\u0432\u044b<\/td>1<\/td>1<\/td>60<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\r\n
\r\n\"\u0424\u0443\u043d\u043a\u0446\u0438\u044f
\u0420\u0438\u0441. 1. \u0424\u0443\u043d\u043a\u0446\u0438\u044f \u0434\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0430 \u043f\u043e \u0441\u0435\u0433\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0430\u043c \u043a\u043e\u0440\u043f\u0443\u0441\u0430. \u041b\u0430\u0439\u043c\u043e\u0432\u044b\u0439 \u0431\u043b\u043e\u043a: \u0434\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u044b, \u043a\u043e\u0442\u043e\u0440\u044b\u0435 \u0441\u0430\u043c\u0438 \u044f\u0432\u043b\u044f\u044e\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0430\u043a\u0442\u0430\u043c\u0438 \u043d\u0430\u0441\u0438\u043b\u0438\u044f.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n

\u0418\u0437 222 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u043f\u0435\u0442\u0440\u0430\u0446\u0438\u043e\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0430\u0440\u0442\u0435\u0444\u0430\u043a\u0442\u043e\u0432 220 (99%) \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0438\u0437\u0432\u0435\u0434\u0435\u043d\u044b \u0433\u043e\u0441\u0443\u0434\u0430\u0440\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u043c \u0438 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0440\u0435\u0436\u0438\u043c\u043d\u044b\u043c \u0441\u0435\u0433\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u043e\u043c. \u042d\u043a\u043e\u0441\u0438\u0441\u0442\u0435\u043c\u0430, \u0441\u043e\u0432\u0435\u0440\u0448\u0430\u044e\u0449\u0430\u044f \u043d\u0430\u0441\u0438\u043b\u0438\u0435, \u0438 \u044d\u043a\u043e\u0441\u0438\u0441\u0442\u0435\u043c\u0430, \u0435\u0433\u043e \u0434\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0438\u0440\u0443\u044e\u0449\u0430\u044f, \u043f\u0440\u0430\u043a\u0442\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0438 \u043d\u0435 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0441\u0435\u043a\u0430\u044e\u0442\u0441\u044f. \u041f\u0440\u0438 \u044d\u0442\u043e\u043c \u0433\u043e\u0441\u0443\u0434\u0430\u0440\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u0434\u0438\u0441\u043a\u0443\u0440\u0441 \u043e \u0446\u0438\u0444\u0440\u043e\u0432\u043e\u043c \u043d\u0430\u0441\u0438\u043b\u0438\u0438 \u0441\u0443\u0449\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0443\u0435\u0442, \u043d\u043e \u0438\u0441\u043a\u043b\u044e\u0447\u0438\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e \u0432 \u0434\u0432\u0443\u0445 \u0436\u0430\u043d\u0440\u0430\u0445: \u0430\u043f\u043e\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u0447\u043d\u0430\u044f \u043a\u0440\u0438\u043c\u0438\u043d\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430\u044f \u0445\u0440\u043e\u043d\u0438\u043a\u0430 (\u0441\u0435\u043a\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0448\u043d, \u043c\u043e\u0448\u0435\u043d\u043d\u0438\u043a\u0438) \u0438 \u00ab\u0437\u0430\u0449\u0438\u0442\u0430 \u0434\u0435\u0442\u0435\u0439 \u0432 \u0438\u043d\u0442\u0435\u0440\u043d\u0435\u0442\u0435\u00bb. \u0420\u0430\u043c\u043e\u0447\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u044f\u0437\u044b\u043a \u0433\u0435\u043d\u0434\u0435\u0440\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0446\u0438\u0444\u0440\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043d\u0430\u0441\u0438\u043b\u0438\u044f \u0432\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0435\u0447\u0430\u0435\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0432 33 \u0434\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0430\u0445 \u043d\u0430 \u0432\u0435\u0441\u044c \u043a\u043e\u0440\u043f\u0443\u0441, \u043f\u043e\u0447\u0442\u0438 \u0446\u0435\u043b\u0438\u043a\u043e\u043c \u0432 \u043d\u0435\u0437\u0430\u0432\u0438\u0441\u0438\u043c\u043e\u043c \u0441\u0435\u0433\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0435.<\/p>\r\n\u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0441\u043a\u0430\u044f \u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430: \u043f\u0440\u0438\u043d\u0443\u0436\u0434\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u043a \u043f\u0443\u0431\u043b\u0438\u0447\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0443 \u0443\u043d\u0438\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044e<\/strong>\r\n

\u0421\u0430\u043c\u0430\u044f \u043c\u0430\u0441\u0441\u043e\u0432\u0430\u044f \u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430 TFGBV \u0432 \u043a\u043e\u0440\u043f\u0443\u0441\u0435 (850 \u0434\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u043e\u0432, \u0438\u0437 \u043d\u0438\u0445 825 \u0431\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0445) \u043e\u0442\u0441\u0443\u0442\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0443\u0435\u0442 \u0432 \u0442\u0438\u043f\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0438 UNFPA \u043a\u0430\u043a \u043e\u0442\u0434\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430\u044f \u043a\u0430\u0442\u0435\u0433\u043e\u0440\u0438\u044f. \u042d\u0442\u043e \u043f\u0440\u0438\u043d\u0443\u0434\u0438\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u00ab\u043f\u043e\u043a\u0430\u044f\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u0432\u0438\u0434\u0435\u043e\u00bb.<\/p>\r\n

\r\n\"\u0424\u043e\u0440\u043c\u044b<\/figure>\r\n

\u0420\u0438\u0441. 2. \u0424\u043e\u0440\u043c\u044b \u043d\u0430\u0441\u0438\u043b\u0438\u044f \u0432 2 671 \u0434\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0435: \u043a\u0430\u0436\u0434\u044b\u0439 \u043a\u0432\u0430\u0434\u0440\u0430\u0442 \u043e\u0434\u0438\u043d \u0434\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442.<\/em> \u0417\u0430\u043f\u0438\u0441\u0430\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u043f\u043e\u0434 \u0434\u0430\u0432\u043b\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435\u043c \u0441\u0438\u043b\u043e\u0432\u0438\u043a\u043e\u0432 \u0432\u0438\u0434\u0435\u043e\u0438\u0437\u0432\u0438\u043d\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435, \u0440\u0430\u0441\u043f\u0440\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d\u044f\u0435\u043c\u043e\u0435 \u0447\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0437 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0432\u043b\u0430\u0441\u0442\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u043a\u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u044b, \u0441\u043e\u0435\u0434\u0438\u043d\u044f\u0435\u0442 \u043e\u0444\u043b\u0430\u0439\u043d-\u043f\u0440\u0438\u043d\u0443\u0436\u0434\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0441 \u0446\u0438\u0444\u0440\u043e\u0432\u044b\u043c \u0443\u043d\u0438\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435\u043c \u0438 \u0440\u0430\u0431\u043e\u0442\u0430\u0435\u0442 \u043a\u0430\u043a \u0438\u043d\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442 \u0443\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u0448\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f \u0430\u0443\u0434\u0438\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0438\u0438.<\/p>\r\n

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\u0412\u043e\u043b\u043d\u0430 9\u201310 \u0430\u043f\u0440\u0435\u043b\u044f 2025.<\/strong> \u0417\u0430 \u0434\u0432\u0430 \u0434\u043d\u044f \u0441\u0435\u043c\u044c \u043f\u0435\u0440\u043f\u0435\u0442\u0440\u0430\u0446\u0438\u043e\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u043f\u043e\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0432 \u0432 \u043f\u044f\u0442\u0438 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0440\u0435\u0436\u0438\u043c\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u043a\u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0430\u0445 (\u00ab\u0416\u0451\u043b\u0442\u044b\u0435 \u0441\u043b\u0438\u0432\u044b\u00bb, \u00ab\u041d\u044c\u044e\u0421\u043b\u0438\u0432\u00bb, \u00ab\u041a\u0440\u044b\u0441\u043e\u043bOFF\u00bb, \u00ab\u0411\u0415\u041b\u0410\u0420\u0423\u0421\u041a\u0410\u042f \u041a\u0423\u0425\u041d\u042f\u00bb, \u00ab\u041f\u0415\u0420\u0415\u041e\u0411\u0423\u0422\u0410\u042f \u0440\u0435\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c\u00bb) \u0430\u0442\u0430\u043a\u0443\u044e\u0442 \u043e\u0434\u043d\u0443 \u043c\u0438\u0448\u0435\u043d\u044c, \u041c\u0430\u0440\u0438\u043d\u0443 \u041c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0443\u0441\u043e\u0432\u0443, \u0432\u0435\u0434\u0443\u0449\u0443\u044e \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u0440\u0430\u043c\u043c\u044b \u00ab\u041e\u0431\u044b\u0447\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u0443\u0442\u0440\u043e\u00bb \u0442\u0435\u043b\u0435\u043a\u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0430 \u00ab\u0411\u0435\u043b\u0441\u0430\u0442\u00bb. \u0412\u0435\u043a\u0442\u043e\u0440\u043e\u0432 \u0434\u0432\u0430: \u0441\u0433\u0435\u043d\u0435\u0440\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u00ab\u0438\u043d\u0442\u0438\u043c\u043d\u044b\u0435\u00bb \u0438\u0437\u043e\u0431\u0440\u0430\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f \u0437\u0430\u0433\u0440\u0443\u0436\u0430\u044e\u0442\u0441\u044f \u043d\u0430 \u043f\u043e\u0440\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0430\u0439\u0442 \u043f\u043e\u0434 \u0435\u0451 \u0438\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0435\u043c, \u0430 \u0441\u0444\u0430\u0431\u0440\u0438\u043a\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u0444\u043e\u0442\u043e \u0440\u0430\u0441\u043f\u0440\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d\u044f\u044e\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0441\u043e \u0441\u0441\u044b\u043b\u043a\u0430\u043c\u0438 \u043d\u0430 \u043f\u043e\u0440\u043d\u043e\u043f\u043b\u0430\u0442\u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0443. \u0422\u0435\u043b\u0435\u0432\u0435\u0434\u0443\u0449\u0438\u0439 \u0413\u0440\u0438\u0433\u043e\u0440\u0438\u0439 \u0410\u0437\u0430\u0440\u0451\u043d\u043e\u043a \u0441\u043e\u043f\u0440\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0436\u0434\u0430\u0435\u0442 \u0432\u043e\u043b\u043d\u0443 \u0433\u043b\u0443\u043c\u043b\u0438\u0432\u044b\u043c \u043c\u0435\u0442\u0430-\u043a\u043e\u043c\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0430\u0440\u0438\u0435\u043c \u0441 \u043a\u0430\u043b\u0430\u043c\u0431\u0443\u0440\u043e\u043c \u043d\u0430 \u043d\u0430\u0437\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0435\u0451 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u0440\u0430\u043c\u043c\u044b. \u041d\u0435\u0437\u0430\u0432\u0438\u0441\u0438\u043c\u044b\u0435 \u0438\u0437\u0434\u0430\u043d\u0438\u044f \u043e\u0442\u0432\u0435\u0447\u0430\u044e\u0442 \u0432 \u0442\u043e\u0442 \u0436\u0435 \u0434\u0435\u043d\u044c, \u0441\u0430\u043c\u0430 \u041c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0443\u0441\u043e\u0432\u0430 \u0433\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0440\u0438\u0442 \u043f\u0443\u0431\u043b\u0438\u0447\u043d\u043e \u0442\u0440\u0438 \u043d\u0435\u0434\u0435\u043b\u0438 \u0441\u043f\u0443\u0441\u0442\u044f, \u043d\u043e \u0430\u0441\u0438\u043c\u043c\u0435\u0442\u0440\u0438\u044f \u043e\u0447\u0435\u0432\u0438\u0434\u043d\u0430: \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0438\u0437\u0432\u043e\u0434\u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e \u0444\u0435\u0439\u043a\u0430 \u0441\u0442\u043e\u0438\u0442 \u043c\u0438\u043d\u0443\u0442\u044b, \u043e\u043f\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0435\u0440\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0441\u0442\u043e\u0438\u0442 \u0440\u0435\u043f\u0443\u0442\u0430\u0446\u0438\u043e\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0438\u0437\u0434\u0435\u0440\u0436\u0435\u043a \u043d\u0430\u0432\u0441\u0435\u0433\u0434\u0430.<\/p>\r\n

\r\n\"\u0410\u043d\u0430\u0442\u043e\u043c\u0438\u044f
\u0420\u0438\u0441. 3. \u0410\u043d\u0430\u0442\u043e\u043c\u0438\u044f \u0432\u043e\u043b\u043d\u044b 9\u201310 \u0430\u043f\u0440\u0435\u043b\u044f 2025: \u0434\u043e\u0440\u043e\u0436\u043a\u0438 \u0441\u043e\u043e\u0442\u0432\u0435\u0442\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0443\u044e\u0442 \u0438\u043d\u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0446\u0438\u043e\u043d\u043d\u044b\u043c \u0441\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0430\u043c, \u0441\u0442\u0440\u0435\u043b\u043a\u0438 \u043f\u043e\u043a\u0430\u0437\u044b\u0432\u0430\u044e\u0442 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0445\u043e\u0434 \u043d\u0430\u0440\u0440\u0430\u0442\u0438\u0432\u0430.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n

\u0412\u043e\u043b\u043d\u0430 7 \u0430\u0432\u0433\u0443\u0441\u0442\u0430 2025.<\/strong> \u0428\u0435\u0441\u0442\u044c \u043a\u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u043e\u0432 \u0442\u043e\u0439 \u0436\u0435 \u0441\u0435\u0442\u043a\u0438 (\u0441\u0435\u043c\u0435\u0439\u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e \u00ab\u0421\u043b\u0438\u0432\u043e\u0432\u00bb, \u00ab\u0421\u043c\u043e\u0442\u0440\u0438 \u043d\u0430 \u043c\u0438\u0440 \u043e\u0442\u043a\u0440\u044b\u0442\u044b\u043c\u0438 \u0433\u043b\u0430\u0437\u0430\u043c\u0438\u00bb, \u00ab\u041f\u0415\u0420\u0415\u041e\u0411\u0423\u0422\u0410\u042f \u0440\u0435\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c\u00bb) \u0441\u0438\u043d\u0445\u0440\u043e\u043d\u043d\u043e \u0440\u0430\u0441\u043f\u0440\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d\u044f\u044e\u0442 \u00ab\u0441\u043a\u0430\u043d\u0434\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u0432\u0438\u0434\u0435\u043e\u00bb, \u043d\u0430\u043f\u0440\u0430\u0432\u043b\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0442\u0438\u0432 \u0421\u0432\u0435\u0442\u043b\u0430\u043d\u044b \u0422\u0438\u0445\u0430\u043d\u043e\u0432\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0439. \u041c\u0435\u0445\u0430\u043d\u0438\u043a\u0430 \u0438\u0434\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0438\u0447\u043d\u0430 \u0430\u043f\u0440\u0435\u043b\u044c\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0439; \u043c\u0438\u0448\u0435\u043d\u044c: \u0441\u0430\u043c\u0430\u044f \u0443\u0437\u043d\u0430\u0432\u0430\u0435\u043c\u0430\u044f \u0436\u0435\u043d\u0449\u0438\u043d\u0430-\u043f\u043e\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u043a \u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d\u044b. \u042d\u0442\u043e \u0445\u0440\u0435\u0441\u0442\u043e\u043c\u0430\u0442\u0438\u0439\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u043f\u0440\u0438\u043c\u0435\u0440 \u0442\u043e\u0433\u043e, \u0447\u0442\u043e \u0438\u0441\u0441\u043b\u0435\u0434\u043e\u0432\u0430\u0442\u0435\u043b\u0438 \u043d\u0430\u0437\u044b\u0432\u0430\u044e\u0442 gendered disinformation: \u0434\u0438\u0441\u043a\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0438\u0442\u0430\u0446\u0438\u044f \u0436\u0435\u043d\u0449\u0438\u043d\u044b-\u043f\u043e\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0430 \u0447\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0437 \u0441\u0435\u043a\u0441\u0443\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437\u0430\u0446\u0438\u044e \u0438 \u043a\u043e\u043c\u043f\u0440\u043e\u043c\u0430\u0442 \u0432\u043c\u0435\u0441\u0442\u043e \u043a\u0440\u0438\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0438 \u043f\u043e\u0437\u0438\u0446\u0438\u0438.<\/p>\r\n

\u0421\u0435\u044f\u0442\u0435\u043b\u0438 \u043e\u0431\u0435\u0438\u0445 \u0432\u043e\u043b\u043d \u0441\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0430\u0432\u043b\u044f\u044e\u0442 \u044f\u0434\u0440\u043e \u0442\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0441\u0430\u043c\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0430\u043d\u043e\u043d\u0438\u043c\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u00ab\u0436\u0451\u043b\u0442\u043e\u0433\u043e\u00bb \u044f\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u043f\u0430\u0433\u0430\u043d\u0434\u0438\u0441\u0442\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0439 \u0442\u0435\u043b\u0435\u0433\u0440\u0430\u043c-\u0432\u0435\u0440\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0430\u043b\u0438, \u043a\u043e\u0442\u043e\u0440\u044b\u0439 FactCheck.LT \u043e\u043f\u0438\u0441\u044b\u0432\u0430\u043b \u0432 \u0438\u0441\u0441\u043b\u0435\u0434\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0438 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0440\u0435\u0436\u0438\u043c\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0442\u0435\u043b\u0435\u0433\u0440\u0430\u043c-\u043f\u043e\u043b\u044f. \u0414\u043e\u043a\u0441\u0438\u043d\u0433-\u0434\u0438\u0441\u043a\u0443\u0440\u0441 \u043a\u043e\u0440\u043f\u0443\u0441\u0430 \u043d\u0430 \u0434\u0432\u0435 \u0442\u0440\u0435\u0442\u0438 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0438\u0437\u0432\u0435\u0434\u0451\u043d \u0434\u0432\u0443\u043c\u044f \u0431\u0440\u0435\u043d\u0434\u0430\u043c\u0438: \u00ab\u0416\u0451\u043b\u0442\u044b\u0435 \u0441\u043b\u0438\u0432\u044b\u00bb (139 \u0434\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u043e\u0432 \u0432 TFGBV-\u0438\u043d\u0434\u0438\u043a\u0430\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0430\u0445) \u0438 \u00ab\u041d\u044c\u044e\u0421\u043b\u0438\u0432\u00bb (126). \u0413\u0435\u043d\u0434\u0435\u0440\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u043d\u0430\u0441\u0438\u043b\u0438\u0435 \u0432\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0438\u0442 \u0432 \u0448\u0442\u0430\u0442\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u0440\u0435\u043f\u0435\u0440\u0442\u0443\u0430\u0440 \u044d\u0442\u043e\u0439 \u0438\u043d\u0444\u0440\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0443\u043a\u0442\u0443\u0440\u044b \u043d\u0430\u0440\u044f\u0434\u0443 \u0441 \u0434\u043e\u043a\u0441\u0438\u043d\u0433\u043e\u043c \u0438 \u0442\u0440\u0430\u0432\u043b\u0435\u0439.<\/p>\r\n

\r\n\"\u0421\u0435\u0442\u044c
\u0420\u0438\u0441. 4. \u041a\u0442\u043e \u0441\u0435\u0435\u0442 \u0438 \u043a\u0442\u043e \u0440\u0430\u0437\u0433\u043e\u043d\u044f\u0435\u0442: \u044f\u0440\u0443\u0441\u044b \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0440\u0435\u0436\u0438\u043c\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u0442\u0435\u043b\u0435\u0433\u0440\u0430\u043c-\u0441\u0435\u0442\u0438 \u043f\u043e \u0447\u0438\u0441\u043b\u0443 \u0434\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u043e\u0432 \u0432 TFGBV-\u0432\u044b\u0431\u043e\u0440\u043a\u0435.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n
\r\n\"\u0414\u0432\u0435
\u0420\u0438\u0441. 5. \u041f\u0435\u0440\u043f\u0435\u0442\u0440\u0430\u0446\u0438\u043e\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u0430\u0440\u0442\u0435\u0444\u0430\u043a\u0442\u044b \u0432 \u0433\u043e\u0441\u0443\u0434\u0430\u0440\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u043c \u0438 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0440\u0435\u0436\u0438\u043c\u043d\u043e\u043c \u0441\u0435\u0433\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0430\u0445 \u043f\u043e \u043c\u0435\u0441\u044f\u0446\u0430\u043c: \u043f\u0438\u043a\u0438 \u0430\u043f\u0440\u0435\u043b\u044f \u0438 \u0430\u0432\u0433\u0443\u0441\u0442\u0430 2025 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u0446\u0435\u043b\u0438\u043a\u043e\u043c \u0433\u0435\u043d\u0434\u0435\u0440\u043d\u044b\u0435.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n\u0427\u044c\u044f \u0432\u0438\u043a\u0442\u0438\u043c\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c \u0441\u0447\u0438\u0442\u0430\u0435\u0442\u0441\u044f: \u0430\u0441\u0438\u043c\u043c\u0435\u0442\u0440\u0438\u044f<\/strong>\r\n

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\u0412\u0442\u043e\u0440\u043e\u0439. \u0414\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0432 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u043d\u0434\u0430\u0440\u0442\u0430\u0445, \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0433\u043e\u0434\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0434\u043b\u044f \u0431\u0443\u0434\u0443\u0449\u0435\u0439 \u043e\u0442\u0432\u0435\u0442\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 (\u0434\u0430\u0442\u044b \u043f\u043e\u0441\u0435\u0432\u0430, \u0441\u0435\u0442\u043a\u0438 \u043a\u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u043e\u0432, \u0446\u0435\u043f\u043e\u0447\u043a\u0438 \u0440\u0435\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0441\u043b\u044f\u0446\u0438\u0438), \u0434\u043e\u043b\u0436\u043d\u043e \u0432\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0438\u0441\u044c \u0443\u0436\u0435 \u0441\u0435\u0439\u0447\u0430\u0441. \u041d\u0430\u0448 \u043c\u0435\u0442\u043e\u0434 \u043f\u043e\u043a\u0430\u0437\u044b\u0432\u0430\u0435\u0442, \u0447\u0442\u043e \u044d\u0442\u043e \u043e\u0441\u0443\u0449\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0438\u043c\u043e \u043d\u0430 \u043e\u0442\u043a\u0440\u044b\u0442\u044b\u0445 \u0434\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445.<\/p>\r\n

\u0422\u0440\u0435\u0442\u0438\u0439. \u041f\u043e\u0434\u0434\u0435\u0440\u0436\u043a\u0430 \u0436\u0435\u0440\u0442\u0432 \u0434\u043e\u043b\u0436\u043d\u0430 \u0432\u043a\u043b\u044e\u0447\u0430\u0442\u044c \u0431\u044b\u0441\u0442\u0440\u043e\u0435 \u043e\u043f\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0435\u0440\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0438 \u044e\u0440\u0438\u0434\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0435 \u0441\u043e\u043f\u0440\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0436\u0434\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0432 \u044e\u0440\u0438\u0441\u0434\u0438\u043a\u0446\u0438\u044f\u0445 \u0415\u0421, \u0433\u0434\u0435 \u043d\u0430\u0445\u043e\u0434\u044f\u0442\u0441\u044f \u043c\u043d\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0435 \u043c\u0438\u0448\u0435\u043d\u0438 \u0430\u0442\u0430\u043a. \u041f\u0440\u0430\u0432\u043e\u0432\u0430\u044f \u0431\u0430\u0437\u0430 \u0434\u043b\u044f \u044d\u0442\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043f\u043e\u044f\u0432\u043b\u044f\u0435\u0442\u0441\u044f: \u043b\u0430\u0442\u0432\u0438\u0439\u0441\u043a\u0430\u044f \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0442\u044c\u044f 145\u00b9 \u0441 \u0430\u043f\u0440\u0435\u043b\u044f 2026 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u044f\u043c\u043e \u043e\u0445\u0432\u0430\u0442\u044b\u0432\u0430\u0435\u0442 \u0418\u0418-\u0441\u0433\u0435\u043d\u0435\u0440\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u0438\u043d\u0442\u0438\u043c\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u043c\u0430\u0442\u0435\u0440\u0438\u0430\u043b\u044b, \u041b\u0438\u0442\u0432\u0430 \u0438 \u041f\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0448\u0430 \u043e\u0431\u044f\u0437\u0430\u043d\u044b \u0432\u0432\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0447\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u043d\u043e\u0440\u043c\u044b \u0434\u043e \u0438\u044e\u043d\u044f 2027 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u0432 \u043f\u043e\u0440\u044f\u0434\u043a\u0435 \u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0441\u043f\u043e\u0437\u0438\u0446\u0438\u0438 \u0414\u0438\u0440\u0435\u043a\u0442\u0438\u0432\u044b 2024\/1385. \u0418\u043d\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0430\u0440\u0438\u0439 \u0434\u043b\u044f \u043e\u0440\u0433\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0437\u0430\u0446\u0438\u0439 \u0443\u0436\u0435 \u0441\u0443\u0449\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0443\u0435\u0442, \u0432\u043a\u043b\u044e\u0447\u0430\u044f \u0440\u0443\u043a\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0434\u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e \u043f\u043e \u0446\u0438\u0444\u0440\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0439 \u0431\u0435\u0437\u043e\u043f\u0430\u0441\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u0434\u043b\u044f \u0436\u0435\u043d\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0445 \u043e\u0440\u0433\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0437\u0430\u0446\u0438\u0439, \u0432\u044b\u043f\u0443\u0449\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u0440\u0430\u043c\u043c\u043e\u0439 EU Neighbours East. \u0418 \u043f\u043e\u0441\u043b\u0435\u0434\u043d\u0435\u0435: \u043f\u044f\u0442\u044c \u0438\u0437 \u0448\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d \u0412\u043e\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0447\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043f\u0430\u0440\u0442\u043d\u0451\u0440\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0430 \u044f\u0432\u043b\u044f\u044e\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0430\u0434\u0440\u0435\u0441\u0430\u0442\u0430\u043c\u0438 \u0420\u0435\u043a\u043e\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0434\u0430\u0446\u0438\u0438 CM\/Rec(2026)2 \u043a\u0430\u043a \u0447\u043b\u0435\u043d\u044b \u0421\u043e\u0432\u0435\u0442\u0430 \u0415\u0432\u0440\u043e\u043f\u044b. \u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u044c \u0441\u0442\u043e\u0438\u0442 \u0432\u043d\u0435 \u0432\u0441\u0435\u0445 \u044d\u0442\u0438\u0445 \u0440\u0430\u043c\u043e\u043a, \u0438 \u0438\u043c\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e \u043f\u043e\u044d\u0442\u043e\u043c\u0443 \u0437\u0430\u0449\u0438\u0442\u0430 \u0435\u0451 \u0436\u0435\u043d\u0449\u0438\u043d \u0437\u0430\u0432\u0438\u0441\u0438\u0442 \u043e\u0442 \u0441\u043e\u0441\u0435\u0434\u0435\u0439.<\/p>\r\n

\r\n\u041c\u0435\u0442\u043e\u0434\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u0438\u043b\u043e\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435: \u043c\u0435\u0436\u043c\u043e\u0434\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u0441\u043e\u0433\u043b\u0430\u0441\u0438\u0435<\/strong>\r\n

\u0414\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u044b \u043a\u043e\u0434\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0441\u044c \u0434\u0432\u0443\u043c\u044f LLM-\u0430\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0442\u0430\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0430\u043c\u0438 (GPT-5.6-luna, OpenAI; Claude Haiku 4.5, Anthropic) \u043d\u0435\u0437\u0430\u0432\u0438\u0441\u0438\u043c\u043e \u0438 \u0432\u0441\u043b\u0435\u043f\u0443\u044e; \u0440\u0430\u0441\u0445\u043e\u0436\u0434\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f \u0440\u0430\u0437\u0440\u0435\u0448\u0430\u043b \u0442\u0440\u0435\u0442\u0438\u0439 \u0430\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0442\u0430\u0442\u043e\u0440 (Claude Sonnet 4.6, Anthropic) \u0441 \u0444\u0438\u043d\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u043c\u0435\u0442\u043a\u043e\u0439 \u0431\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0448\u0438\u043d\u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e\u043c 2-\u0438\u0437-3.<\/p>\r\n
\u041f\u043e\u043b\u0435<\/th>\u03ba (luna\/haiku)<\/th>\u0421\u044b\u0440\u043e\u0435 \u0441\u043e\u0433\u043b\u0430\u0441\u0438\u0435<\/th>N<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
\u0420\u0435\u043b\u0435\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0442\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c<\/td>0.56<\/td>81%<\/td>7 812<\/td><\/tr>
\u0424\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430 \u043d\u0430\u0441\u0438\u043b\u0438\u044f<\/td>0.71<\/td>77%<\/td>1 592<\/td><\/tr>
\u0424\u0443\u043d\u043a\u0446\u0438\u044f \u0434\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0430<\/td>0.69<\/td>83%<\/td>1 592<\/td><\/tr>
\u0413\u0435\u043d\u0434\u0435\u0440\u043d\u0430\u044f \u043e\u0431\u0443\u0441\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043b\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c<\/td>0.36<\/td>55%<\/td>1 592<\/td><\/tr>
\u041f\u043e\u043b \u0436\u0435\u0440\u0442\u0432\u044b<\/td>0.83<\/td>89%<\/td>1 592<\/td><\/tr>
\u0422\u0438\u043f \u043f\u0435\u0440\u043f\u0435\u0442\u0440\u0430\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0430<\/td>0.71<\/td>78%<\/td>1 592<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\r\n

\u0423\u0441\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u043f\u043e\u043b\u044f \u0441\u0447\u0438\u0442\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0441\u044c \u043d\u0430 \u0434\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0430\u0445, \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0437\u043d\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0440\u0435\u043b\u0435\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0442\u043d\u044b\u043c\u0438 \u043e\u0431\u043e\u0438\u043c\u0438 \u0430\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0442\u0430\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0430\u043c\u0438. \u041a\u0430\u043f\u043f\u0430 \u041a\u043e\u044d\u043d\u0430 \u043a\u043e\u0440\u0440\u0435\u043a\u0442\u0438\u0440\u0443\u0435\u0442 \u0441\u044b\u0440\u043e\u0435 \u0441\u043e\u0433\u043b\u0430\u0441\u0438\u0435 \u043d\u0430 \u0441\u043b\u0443\u0447\u0430\u0439\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u0441\u043e\u0432\u043f\u0430\u0434\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435; \u0438\u043d\u0442\u0435\u0440\u043f\u0440\u0435\u0442\u0430\u0446\u0438\u044f \u043f\u043e \u0448\u043a\u0430\u043b\u0435 \u041b\u0430\u043d\u0434\u0438\u0441\u0430\u2013\u041a\u043e\u0445\u0430. \u041d\u0438\u0437\u043a\u0430\u044f \u043a\u0430\u043f\u043f\u0430 \u043f\u043e \u0433\u0435\u043d\u0434\u0435\u0440\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u043e\u0431\u0443\u0441\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043b\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u043e\u0442\u0440\u0430\u0436\u0430\u0435\u0442 \u0438\u043d\u0442\u0435\u0440\u043f\u0440\u0435\u0442\u0430\u0442\u0438\u0432\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c \u043a\u0430\u0442\u0435\u0433\u043e\u0440\u0438\u0438 \u00abunclear\u00bb \u0438 \u043a\u043e\u043c\u043f\u0435\u043d\u0441\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0430 \u0430\u0440\u0431\u0438\u0442\u0440\u0430\u0436\u0435\u043c (\u0441\u043e\u0433\u043b\u0430\u0441\u0438\u0435 \u0430\u0440\u0431\u0438\u0442\u0440\u0430 \u0441 haiku \u043f\u043e \u044d\u0442\u043e\u043c\u0443 \u043f\u043e\u043b\u044e \u03ba=0.65) \u0438 \u0440\u0443\u0447\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u0432\u0435\u0440\u0438\u0444\u0438\u043a\u0430\u0446\u0438\u0435\u0439. 64% \u0444\u0438\u043d\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u043c\u0435\u0442\u043e\u043a \u0435\u0434\u0438\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043b\u0430\u0441\u043d\u044b, 20% \u043f\u0440\u0438\u043d\u044f\u0442\u044b \u0431\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0448\u0438\u043d\u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e\u043c, 16% \u0440\u0435\u0448\u0430\u044e\u0449\u0438\u043c \u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0441\u043e\u043c \u0430\u0440\u0431\u0438\u0442\u0440\u0430. \u0420\u0443\u0447\u043d\u0430\u044f \u0432\u0435\u0440\u0438\u0444\u0438\u043a\u0430\u0446\u0438\u044f \u043e\u0445\u0432\u0430\u0442\u0438\u043b\u0430 \u0432\u0441\u0435 \u0434\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u044b \u043e \u0441\u0435\u043a\u0441\u0443\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0444\u0435\u0439\u043a\u0430\u0445, \u043e\u0431\u0435 \u0432\u043e\u043b\u043d\u044b 2025 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u0438 \u043a\u043b\u044e\u0447\u0435\u0432\u044b\u0435 \u043a\u0435\u0439\u0441\u044b; \u043f\u043e \u0435\u0451 \u0438\u0442\u043e\u0433\u0430\u043c \u043f\u044f\u0442\u044c \u0434\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u043e\u0432 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0440\u0430\u0437\u043c\u0435\u0447\u0435\u043d\u044b (\u043c\u043e\u0448\u0435\u043d\u043d\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e \u0438 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0444\u0438\u043b\u0430\u043a\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0430 \u0432\u043c\u0435\u0441\u0442\u043e \u0441\u0435\u043a\u0441\u0443\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0444\u0435\u0439\u043a\u043e\u0432), \u0447\u0442\u043e \u0443\u0447\u0442\u0435\u043d\u043e \u0432 \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0432\u0435\u0434\u0451\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0446\u0438\u0444\u0440\u0430\u0445.<\/p>\r\n

\u0414\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435: \u043a\u043e\u0440\u043f\u0443\u0441 FORESIGHT, 7 814 \u0434\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u043e\u0432, 2018\u20132026. \u041a\u043e\u0434 \u0438 \u043a\u043e\u0434\u0431\u0443\u043a \u0434\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0443\u043f\u043d\u044b \u043f\u043e \u0437\u0430\u043f\u0440\u043e\u0441\u0443.<\/p>\r\n","_ru_post_name":"tfgbv_belarus","_ru_post_excerpt":"","_ru_post_title":"\u0413\u043e\u0441\u0443\u0434\u0430\u0440\u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e \u043a\u0430\u043a \u043f\u0435\u0440\u043f\u0435\u0442\u0440\u0430\u0442\u043e\u0440: \u0446\u0438\u0444\u0440\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0435 \u0433\u0435\u043d\u0434\u0435\u0440\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u043d\u0430\u0441\u0438\u043b\u0438\u0435 \u0432 \u0411\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0438","_eng_post_content":"TL;DR<\/strong>\r\n

Technology-facilitated gender-based violence (TFGBV) is described in the international literature primarily as interpersonal: former partners, stalkers, anonymous trolls. The Belarusian case works differently.<\/p>\r\n

We analysed 7,814 documents from the FORESIGHT corpus, which covers state, pro-regime and independent media and Telegram channels. The largest perpetrator of gendered digital violence in the Belarusian information space turned out to be the state: security services, the propaganda Telegram vertical and state media together account for 42% of documented Belarus-related cases of gender-based violence. That is more than anonymous criminals (26%) and interpersonal violence (19%). And of the documents that are themselves acts of violence (doxxing, distribution of sexualized fakes, mocking of victims), 99% were produced by the state and pro-regime segment.<\/p>\r\nWhat TFGBV is<\/strong>\r\n

The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) defines TFGBV<\/a> as an act of violence committed, assisted or amplified through digital media or information and communication technologies and directed at a person because of their gender. The typology includes doxxing (publication of personal data), non-consensual distribution of intimate images, sexualized deepfakes, sextortion, cyberstalking and online harassment. The key idea of the UNFPA framework is the continuum: violence that starts online escalates into physical space, and women's self-censorship under the threat of digital violence impoverishes the public sphere and harms democracy.<\/p>\r\n

The legal framework around this definition has become concrete in recent years. GREVIO, the monitoring body of the Istanbul Convention, adopted General Recommendation No. 1 on the digital dimension of violence against women in 2021; CEDAW had already extended the concept of gender-based violence to digital environments in 2017 (General Recommendation No. 35). EU Directive 2024\/1385 obliges member states to criminalise the distribution of manipulated intimate material, including deepfakes, with a transposition deadline of 14 June 2027; Latvia has already introduced the corresponding Section 145\u00b9 of its Criminal Law, in force since 16 April 2026. Finally, in March 2026 the Committee of Ministers of the Council of Europe adopted Recommendation CM\/Rec(2026)2, the first international standard devoted specifically to accountability for technology-facilitated violence against women and girls. All of these instruments rest on one premise: the state wants to hold the perpetrator accountable.<\/p>\r\n

Our data confirm the continuum but show that in Belarus it is institutionalised, and the premise of the international framework does not hold. The publication of personal data in a Telegram channel and the detention that follows are not linked by coincidence: between them stands GUBOPiK, the main directorate for combating organised crime, for which such publications serve as working material.<\/p>\r\nHow we measured<\/strong>\r\n

From the FORESIGHT corpus (about 3.6 million documents from the Belarusian information space as of August 2026) we retrieved 7,814 unique documents from 2018\u20132026 using eight search indicators: doxxing, intimate images, online harassment, deepfakes, sexualized fakes, coerced \"repentance videos\", attacks on women journalists and activists, and framework discourse on digital violence.<\/p>\r\n

Each document was independently coded by two LLM annotators against a single codebook built on the UNFPA glossary: relevance, form of violence, gender-based targeting, gender and category of the victim, type of perpetrator, and the function of the document (reporting an event or being the act of violence itself). Inter-model agreement was measured with Cohen's kappa: from \u03ba=0.83 (\"almost perfect\") for victim gender to \u03ba=0.36 for gender-based targeting, the most interpretive field in the codebook. Disagreements (34% of documents) were resolved by a third, stronger LLM annotator coding blind; the final label was assigned by majority vote. 64% of final labels are unanimous. The core cases on which the conclusions rest were additionally verified by hand. The full agreement table is given in the methodological appendix.<\/p>\r\n

Result: 2,671 documents were classified as TFGBV; 2,420 of them concern Belarus, Belarusians or the Belarusian diaspora, the rest cover foreign cases. Explicit gender-based targeting (the victim attacked as a woman or through sexualization and gender stereotypes) was labelled in 868 documents, 711 of them Belarus-related. Where a claim concerns the Belarusian ecosystem, the figures below refer to the Belarus-related subset. 87% of victims in this group are women.<\/p>\r\n

A note on ethics. The publication names only women who have themselves made their stories public, reproduces no images or links, and describes the pattern rather than individual \"online dramas\".<\/p>\r\nThe division of labor: who reports the violence and who commits it<\/strong>\r\n

The codebook distinguished the function of each document: coverage of a case of violence, victim testimony, prevention, or a perpetration artifact, that is a document which is itself an act of violence: a post with personal data, distribution of fake intimate images, mocking of a victim.<\/p>\r\n
Function of the document<\/th>Pro-regime Telegram<\/th>State media and agencies<\/th>Independent<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Coverage<\/td>108<\/td>313<\/td>1,474<\/td><\/tr>
Perpetration artifact<\/strong><\/td>195<\/strong><\/td>25<\/strong><\/td>1<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Crime news<\/td>1<\/td>136<\/td>56<\/td><\/tr>
Prevention<\/td>4<\/td>103<\/td>12<\/td><\/tr>
Victim testimony<\/td>1<\/td>1<\/td>60<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\r\n
\r\n\"Function
Figure 1. Function of the document by corpus segment. The lime block: documents that are themselves acts of violence.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n

Of 222 perpetration artifacts, 220 (99%) were produced by the state and pro-regime segment. The ecosystem that commits the violence and the ecosystem that documents it practically do not overlap. State discourse on digital violence does exist, but only in two genres: apolitical crime news (sextortion, fraudsters) and \"protecting children online\". Framework language on gendered digital violence appears in 33 documents across the whole corpus, almost entirely in the independent segment.<\/p>\r\nThe Belarusian form: coerced public humiliation<\/strong>\r\n

The most common form of TFGBV in the corpus (850 documents, 825 of them Belarus-related) is absent from the UNFPA typology as a separate category. It is the coerced \"repentance video\". A video apology recorded under pressure from security services and distributed through pro-government channels fuses offline coercion with digital humiliation and works as a tool for intimidating the audience.<\/p>\r\n

\r\n\"Forms
Figure 2. Forms of violence in 2,671 documents: each square is one document.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n

Here it is necessary to explain whom the Belarusian regime treats as \"its own\" and whom as \"other\". The boundary is defined by loyalty, not by social position and not by gender: \"its own\" are the state apparatus, the security services, public-sector employees and the loyal audience of state media; \"others\" are everyone connected with the 2020 protests, independent media or the diaspora. In the vocabulary of pro-regime channels, clearly visible in our corpus, these are \"zmahary\", \"extremists\", \"the runaways\". Gender sets the way in which a person is turned into an \"other\". Women are stripped of agency through sexualization and roles: \"impostor\", \"runaway zmaharka\", \"the cook\" aimed at Tsikhanouskaya, \"porn actress\" aimed at Mentusova, accusations that a politician \"abandoned her children\". Men are stripped of masculinity: \"zmahariki\", \"cockerels\", \"cowards\", sexualized mockery, the portrayal of an opponent as a coward or a kept man. In both cases the goal is the same: to show the audience of \"its own\" that \"others\" deserve neither respect nor protection.<\/p>\r\n

Importantly, the status of \"one's own\" is conditional and is revoked at the moment of deviation. In July 2026 the editor-in-chief of a Homel district state newspaper, who had allowed herself to criticise a music group loyal to the authorities, recorded a \"repentance video\" with apologies. \"One of ours\" the day before, she was publicly moved into the \"others\" by the same instrument normally applied to opponents of the regime.<\/p>\r\n

The practice is already crossing borders: in 2026 independent media recorded that \"apology videos\" on the Belarusian model had begun to be recorded by the security services of Azerbaijan.<\/p>\r\nThe state: the largest perpetrator<\/strong>\r\n

In the 711 Belarus-related documents with established gender-based targeting, the distribution of perpetrators looks as follows. The state group: security services (189), pro-regime Telegram channels (90), state media (22), in total 301 cases, or 42%. Anonymous criminals: 182 (26%). Interpersonal violence: 138 (19%). In most of the \"state\" cases the victims are women.<\/p>\r\n

A telling case: in September 2025 the journalist Larysa Shchyrakova publicly reported that after her detention, security officers had posted her intimate photos on a dating site. This story contains every element discussed in this publication. The violence is committed by the state; there is no anonymous stalker in this story; the form of violence, non-consensual distribution of intimate images, comes from the classic TFGBV typology; the chain begins with a search and seizure of devices and continues online; and the purpose is the humiliation of a journalist specifically as a woman.<\/p>\r\nCoordinated waves: the infrastructure of attacks<\/strong>\r\n

The corpus makes it possible to reconstruct attacks as operations: with seeding dates, a network of channels and a distribution of roles.<\/p>\r\n

The wave of 9\u201310 April 2025.<\/strong> In two days, seven perpetration posts in five pro-regime channels (\"Zholtye Slivy\", \"NewsSliv\", \"KrysolOFF\", \"BELARUSKAYA KUKHNYA\", \"PEREOBUTAYA Realnost\") attack one target, Maryna Mentusova, presenter of the programme \"Obychnoe Utro\" on the Belsat channel. Two vectors: AI-generated \"intimate\" images are uploaded to a porn site under her name, and fabricated photos are circulated with links to a porn platform. The state-TV presenter Ryhor Azaronak accompanies the wave with a mocking meta-commentary that puns on the name of her show. Independent outlets respond the same day, Mentusova herself speaks publicly three weeks later, but the asymmetry is obvious: producing the fake costs minutes, the rebuttal costs reputational damage forever.<\/p>\r\n

\r\n\"Anatomy
Figure 3. Anatomy of the wave of 9\u201310 April 2025: lanes correspond to information environments, arrows show the movement of the narrative.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n

The wave of 7 August 2025.<\/strong> Six channels of the same network (the \"Slivy\" family, \"Smotri na Mir Otkrytymi Glazami\", \"PEREOBUTAYA Realnost\") synchronously distribute a \"scandal video\" aimed at Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. The mechanics are identical to April; the target is the most recognisable woman politician of the country. This is a textbook example of what researchers call gendered disinformation: discrediting a woman politician through sexualization and kompromat instead of criticism of her position.<\/p>\r\n

The seeders of both waves form the core of the anonymous \"yellow\" tier of the propaganda Telegram vertical that FactCheck.LT described in its study of the pro-regime Telegram field. Two-thirds of the doxxing discourse in the corpus is produced by two brands: \"Zholtye Slivy\" (139 documents in the TFGBV indicators) and \"NewsSliv\" (126). Gendered violence belongs to the standard repertoire of this infrastructure, alongside doxxing and harassment.<\/p>\r\n

\r\n\"Channel
Figure 4. Who seeds and who amplifies: tiers of the pro-regime Telegram network by number of documents in the TFGBV retrieval.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n
\r\n\"Two
Figure 5. Perpetration artifacts in the state and pro-regime segments by month: the April and August 2025 peaks are entirely gender-based.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\nWhose victimhood counts: the asymmetry<\/strong>\r\n

The state ecosystem knows how to be outraged by deepfakes, when the victims are its own. In March 2026 the story of \"fraudulent deepfakes of Ryhor Azaronak\" was synchronously distributed by dozens of channels of the state vertical, down to district and factory ones (\"Krichevtsementnoshifer\", \"Steklozavod NEMAN\", \"CHAS PIK KHOTIMSK\"). The corpus even contains a pro-regime \"People's Anti-Fake\" channel that debunks deepfakes targeting officials.<\/p>\r\n

The figures of the asymmetry, Belarus-related documents. Among victims of non-sexualized deepfakes (fraud, political fakes; 379 documents) men outnumber women more than two to one: 228 against 104. These are officials and propagandists, and their cases receive a \"defence\" campaign. Among victims of sexualized fakes (29 documents) women make up 88% of identified victims (23 against 3), and their cases are produced and distributed by the same ecosystem: 14 of the 29 documents are perpetration artifacts, 11 of them aimed at women.<\/p>\r\n

\r\n\"Asymmetry\"
Figure 6. Victim gender by type of fake, Belarus-related documents.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n

Two caveats to this comparison. The count is of documents, not incidents: the single March story of Azaronak's deepfakes produced more than thirty documents, so the male majority partly measures the intensity of the defence campaign, and that is precisely the phenomenon. Moreover, the categories differ in function: deepfakes are represented mostly by defensive coverage, sexualized fakes include the acts of violence themselves. The comparison therefore shows not who is attacked more often, but whose victimhood the ecosystem recognises and defends. Tellingly, Azaronak stands on both sides: in April 2025 he mocks Mentusova, in March 2026 the whole vertical defends him from a deepfake. When a deepfake targets a man of the system, it is called an attack by fraudsters and enemies. When a sexualized fake targets a woman activist, it is called content.<\/p>\r\nThe continuum and the limits of the picture<\/strong>\r\n

The online-offline continuum, which UNFPA describes as a risk, is the norm in the Belarusian data. 1,328 documents, half of the relevant corpus (1,272 of them Belarus-related), record a transition between digital and physical violence: doxxing followed by detention; detention followed by a \"repentance video\".<\/p>\r\n

Two reservations for completeness. First, gendered digital violence is directed not only at women: 46 documents record male victims of gender-based attacks, from rape threats against a Belarusian volunteer in Ukraine to sexualized mockery of male activists by pro-regime channels. The mechanism is the same: control through sexualized humiliation. Second, harassment allegations also arise inside the democratic community: in autumn 2025 several such cases led to suspensions and internal proceedings in diaspora organisations. We do not assess the substance of these allegations. For our story two facts matter: inside the community, unlike inside the state, accountability mechanisms operate, and every such case is instantly instrumentalised by pro-regime channels as fuel for gendered disinformation.<\/p>\r\nLimitations<\/strong>\r\n

The corpus reflects the media visibility of violence, not its prevalence: cases that never reached the media or Telegram are invisible to us, so all quantitative estimates are lower bounds. LLM labelling is imperfect: model agreement on the most interpretive field (gender-based targeting) is moderate (\u03ba=0.36\u20130.65 across pairs), which we compensated for with adjudication, conservative wording and manual verification of the core cases. Attribution of perpetrators is based on the content and source of documents, not on technical forensics.<\/p>\r\nWhat to do about it<\/strong>\r\n

The Belarusian experience matters for the whole Eastern Partnership region for two reasons. Practices of coercion are already being borrowed by neighbours, and the infrastructure of coordinated attacks is cheap and easily reproduced in any country with a developed pro-regime Telegram network. Three practical conclusions follow.<\/p>\r\n

First. Protection mechanisms for women in politics and journalism must account for the state as perpetrator. Standard platform protocols, designed for interpersonal violence and for law enforcement as a neutral party, do not work in this configuration: in Belarus the security services, from the militia and GUBOPiK to the KGB and the Investigative Committee, are themselves the perpetrator.<\/p>\r\n

Second. Documentation to standards usable for future accountability (seeding dates, channel networks, retransmission chains) must begin now. Our method shows that this is feasible on open data.<\/p>\r\n

Third. Support for victims must include fast rebuttal and legal assistance in EU jurisdictions, where many targets of attacks live. The legal basis for this is emerging: Latvia's Section 145\u00b9 has explicitly covered AI-generated intimate material since April 2026, and Lithuania and Poland are obliged to introduce equivalent provisions by June 2027 when transposing Directive 2024\/1385. Tools for organisations already exist, including the digital-security toolkit for women's organisations published by the EU Neighbours East programme. And finally: five of the six Eastern Partnership countries are addressees of Recommendation CM\/Rec(2026)2 as members of the Council of Europe. Belarus stands outside all of these frameworks, and that is exactly why the protection of its women depends on its neighbours.<\/p>\r\n

\r\nMethodological appendix: inter-model agreement<\/strong>\r\n

Documents were coded by two LLM annotators (GPT-5.6-luna, OpenAI; Claude Haiku 4.5, Anthropic) independently and blind; disagreements were resolved by a third annotator (Claude Sonnet 4.6, Anthropic) with the final label set by a 2-of-3 majority.<\/p>\r\n
Field<\/th>\u03ba (luna\/haiku)<\/th>Raw agreement<\/th>N<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Relevance<\/td>0.56<\/td>81%<\/td>7,812<\/td><\/tr>
Form of violence<\/td>0.71<\/td>77%<\/td>1,592<\/td><\/tr>
Function of the document<\/td>0.69<\/td>83%<\/td>1,592<\/td><\/tr>
Gender-based targeting<\/td>0.36<\/td>55%<\/td>1,592<\/td><\/tr>
Victim gender<\/td>0.83<\/td>89%<\/td>1,592<\/td><\/tr>
Perpetrator type<\/td>0.71<\/td>78%<\/td>1,592<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\r\n

Conditional fields were computed on documents both annotators judged relevant. Cohen's kappa corrects raw agreement for chance; interpretation follows the Landis and Koch scale. The low kappa for gender-based targeting reflects the interpretive nature of the \"unclear\" category and is compensated by adjudication (the arbiter's agreement with haiku on this field is \u03ba=0.65) and manual verification. 64% of final labels are unanimous, 20% were set by majority, 16% by the arbiter's deciding vote. Manual verification covered all documents on sexualized fakes, both 2025 waves and the key cases; as a result five documents were relabelled (fraud and prevention instead of sexualized fakes), which is reflected in the figures above.<\/p>\r\n

Data: FORESIGHT corpus, 7,814 documents, 2018\u20132026. Code and codebook available on request.<\/p>\r\n\r\n