Analysis by threat category: who spreads the narrative first. Total pairs: 204
| Country | Category | 📰 Text | 📺 Video | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltic | economic_threat | 07-01 | 07-02 | 1d |
| Estonia | economic_threat | 07-01 | 07-02 | 1d |
| Estonia | sovereignty_threat | 07-01 | 07-05 | 4d |
| France | economic_threat | 07-01 | 07-02 | 1d |
| France | historical_manipulat | 07-01 | 07-02 | 1d |
| France | sovereignty_threat | 07-01 | 07-03 | 2d |
| Germany | economic_threat | 07-01 | 07-02 | 1d |
| Hungary | military_threat | 07-01 | 07-03 | 2d |
| Country | Category | 📰 Text | 📺 Video | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltic | military_threat | 07-02 | 07-01 | 1d |
| Baltic | sovereignty_threat | 07-02 | 07-01 | 1d |
| Belgium | military_threat | 07-02 | 07-01 | 1d |
| Czech Republic | military_threat | 07-05 | 07-01 | 4d |
| France | dehumanization | 07-02 | 07-01 | 1d |
| Latvia | dehumanization | 07-02 | 07-01 | 1d |
| Spain | military_threat | 07-02 | 07-01 | 1d |
| Baltic | economic_threat | 07-07 | 07-06 | 1d |
| Country | Category | 📰 Text | 📺 Video | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | military_threat | 07-01 | 07-01 | 0d |
| France | migration_narrative | 07-01 | 07-01 | 0d |
| France | military_threat | 07-01 | 07-01 | 0d |
| Germany | historical_manipulat | 07-01 | 07-01 | 0d |
| Germany | migration_narrative | 07-01 | 07-01 | 0d |
| Germany | military_threat | 07-01 | 07-01 | 0d |
| Latvia | military_threat | 07-01 | 07-01 | 0d |
| Latvia | sovereignty_threat | 07-01 | 07-01 | 0d |
| Country | Total | Threat | High | Sources/Channels |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poland | 967 | 2.0 | 148 | telegram: 284 sb: 169 belta: 134 ctv: 80 zapadny_rubesz: 73 📺 СБ ТВ: 59 |
| Lithuania | 511 | 2.1 | 83 | telegram: 156 sb: 76 belta: 73 ctv: 57 zapadny_rubesz: 33 📺 Первый национальный канал Белорусского радио: 33 |
| Latvia | 685 | 1.7 | 80 | telegram: 137 zapadny_rubesz: 121 sb: 114 belta: 91 ctv: 61 📺 Первый национальный канал Белорусского радио: 28 |
| Estonia | 308 | 1.5 | 28 | sb: 71 belta: 52 ctv: 48 telegram: 39 📺 NEWS.BY: новости Беларуси и мира: 17 zapadny_rubesz: 16 |
| Germany | 1,212 | 2.1 | 164 | sb: 336 belta: 260 ctv: 132 telegram: 118 📺 СБ ТВ: 64 📺 Первый национальный канал Белорусского радио: 47 |
| France | 1,394 | 1.7 | 151 | sb: 462 belta: 207 ctv: 203 telegram: 98 belarus_news_rtr: 68 📺 СБ ТВ: 49 |
| Czech Republic | 232 | 2.1 | 35 | sb: 67 belta: 46 📺 NEWS.BY: новости Беларуси и мира: 21 ctv: 19 telegram: 18 📺 Первый национальный канал Белорусского радио: 16 |
| Hungary | 199 | 2.6 | 45 | sb: 50 belta: 45 ctv: 23 📺 СБ ТВ: 21 telegram: 13 📺 NEWS.BY: новости Беларуси и мира: 12 |
| Slovakia | 65 | 2.6 | 11 | belta: 20 sb: 11 ctv: 7 telegram: 7 📺 NEWS.BY: новости Беларуси и мира: 7 📺 СБ ТВ: 5 |
| Spain | 325 | 1.4 | 28 | sb: 112 belta: 67 ctv: 36 telegram: 16 mlyn: 16 📺 Первый национальный канал Белорусского радио: 16 |
| Portugal | 88 | 1.2 | 9 | sb: 29 belta: 20 ctv: 11 mlyn: 8 📺 Первый национальный канал Белорусского радио: 6 belarus_news_rtr: 4 |
| Netherlands | 122 | 1.9 | 15 | sb: 41 belta: 26 ctv: 13 telegram: 11 📺 Первый национальный канал Белорусского радио: 9 📺 NEWS.BY: новости Беларуси и мира: 6 |
| Belgium | 103 | 1.9 | 16 | sb: 40 belta: 16 ctv: 9 📺 Первый национальный канал Белорусского радио: 7 📺 СБ ТВ: 5 📺 NEWS.BY: новости Беларуси и мира: 5 |
| Luxembourg | 13 | 2.4 | 1 | belta: 4 sb: 3 prof1: 2 telegram: 1 📺 Первый национальный канал Белорусского радио: 1 📺 NEWS.BY: новости Беларуси и мира: 1 |
| Baltic | 219 | 3.3 | 62 | telegram: 71 📺 Первый национальный канал Белорусского радио: 28 sb: 23 📺 СБ ТВ: 23 belta: 22 ctv: 15 |
The Weimar Triangle countries (Poland, Germany, France) receive fundamentally different propaganda treatment than the Baltic states. While the Baltics face a monotonal military threat narrative, each Weimar country is attacked through its unique perceived vulnerability.
| Cluster | Materials | Avg threat | High risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🔵 Baltic States (LT, LV, EE) | 1,504 | 1.8 | 191 |
| 🔶 Weimar Triangle (PL, DE, FR) | 3,573 | 1.9 | 463 |
The Visegrád Four (Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia) are framed differently again. Here the dominant lens is EU internal division: Hungary and Slovakia are cast as the 'voice of reason' against Brussels, while the same Poland that anchors the Weimar Triangle appears in a Central European context. Poland is counted in both clusters as an analytical lens, not double-counted in totals.
| Cluster | Materials | Avg threat | High risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🔵 Baltic (LT, LV, EE) | 1,504 | 1.8 | 191 |
| 🔶 Weimar (PL, DE, FR) | 3,573 | 1.9 | 463 |
| 🟢 Visegrád V4 (PL, CZ, HU, SK) | 1,463 | 2.3 | 239 |
| 🟠 Iberia (ES, PT) | 413 | 1.3 | 37 |
| 🟣 Benelux (NL, BE, LU) | 238 | 2.1 | 32 |
The same Poland coverage is read through two lenses. In the Weimar context Poland is attacked as a Western partner (militarization, NATO frontline); in the V4 context it appears among Central European neighbours where the EU-division frame dominates. This is one dataset analysed two ways, not two datasets.
| Narrative about Poland | Count |
|---|---|
| 🔥 Internal problems | 119 |
| ⚔️ Militarization | 105 |
| 🚚 Arms to Ukraine | 73 |
| 🚶 Migration as weapon | 62 |
| 📜 Historical manipulation | 44 |
Hungary is the month's most analytically significant case. After Viktor Orbán lost the 12 April election to Péter Magyar's Tisza party, Belarusian state media faced a problem: their long-standing 'pragmatic sovereign ally' was gone. The April data captures the machine mid-recalibration, dominated by an EU-internal-division frame ('Tisza's win is Brussels's win, but the EU is still split') and a conditional-acceptance posture toward the new government.
YouTube thumbnails and transcripts analyzed together reveal how visual packaging differs by target country. The same propaganda system uses different visual strategies for Baltic states vs. Weimar Triangle countries.
| Country | Videos | Clickbait | Propaganda | FIMI %* | Top visual technique | Top text technique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔶 Poland | 156 | 3.35 | 6.67 | 29.5% | appeal_to_authority | - |
| 🔵 Lithuania | 83 | 3.3 | 7.65 | 30.1% | appeal_to_authority | - |
| 🔵 Latvia | 97 | 2.97 | 6.87 | 21.6% | appeal_to_authority | - |
| 🔵 Estonia | 43 | 3.02 | 5.53 | 25.6% | appeal_to_authority | - |
| 🔶 Germany | 181 | 3.15 | 6.66 | 26.5% | appeal_to_authority | - |
| 🔶 France | 186 | 3.12 | 6.28 | 27.4% | appeal_to_authority | - |
| 🟢 Czech Republic | 54 | 3.28 | 6.07 | 25.9% | appeal_to_authority | - |
| 🟢 Hungary | 44 | 3.2 | 7.98 | 27.3% | appeal_to_authority | - |
| 🟢 Slovakia | 13 | 3.69 | 7.08 | 30.8% | whataboutism_visual | - |
| 🟠 Spain | 39 | 3.41 | 6.3 | 38.5% | whataboutism_visual | - |
| 🟠 Portugal | 11 | 3.64 | 8.77 | 45.5% | demonization | - |
| 🟣 Netherlands | 24 | 2.96 | 7.01 | 33.3% | stability_framing | - |
| 🟣 Belgium | 17 | 3.71 | 7.1 | 52.9% | whataboutism_visual | - |
| 🟣 Luxembourg | 3 | 3.67 | 6.1 | 33.3% | whataboutism_visual | - |
| Cluster | Videos | Clickbait | Propaganda | FIMI %* | Misalignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔵 Baltic | 223 | 3.1 | 6.9 | 25.6% | 16.1% |
| 🔶 Weimar | 523 | 3.2 | 6.53 | 27.7% | 16.4% |
| 🟢 V4 | 267 | 3.33 | 6.78 | 28.5% | 15.0% |
| 🟠 Iberia | 50 | 3.46 | 6.84 | 40.0% | 12.0% |
| 🟣 Benelux | 44 | 3.3 | 6.98 | 40.9% | 20.5% |
| Country | Cases | Divergence |
|---|---|---|
| France | 33/186 | 17.7% |
| Lithuania | 10/83 | 12.0% |
| Germany | 29/181 | 16.0% |
| Poland | 31/156 | 19.9% |
| Latvia | 11/97 | 11.3% |
| Estonia | 9/43 | 20.9% |
| Czech Republic | 8/54 | 14.8% |
| Hungary | 4/44 | 9.1% |
| Slovakia | 2/13 | 15.4% |
| Spain | 11/39 | 28.2% |
| Portugal | 2/11 | 18.2% |
| Netherlands | 2/24 | 8.3% |
| Belgium | 3/17 | 17.6% |
* FIMI indicator restored under the updated methodology (visual codebook v2.1, EEAS operationalization). June 2026 is a calibration month: values are an upper-bound estimate; criteria will be refined in subsequent issues.
Narrative categories and manipulation types translated into DISARM Red framework techniques. Counts are materials carrying indicators of a technique (one material can map to several techniques). Deterministic v0 mapping — an indicative translation layer, not per-item behavioural coding.
| ID | Technique | Materials |
|---|---|---|
| T0135 | Undermine | 513 |
| T0023 | Distort Facts | 487 |
| T0078 | Dismay | 383 |
| T0075.001 | Discredit Credible Sources | 378 |
| T0079 | Divide | 217 |
| T0135 | T0023 | T0078 | T0075.001 | T0079 | T0003 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poland | 141 | 200 | 175 | 119 | 86 | 73 |
| Lithuania | 67 | 114 | 149 | 48 | 17 | 17 |
| Latvia | 73 | 109 | 87 | 47 | 39 | 32 |
| Estonia | 35 | 54 | 33 | 20 | 12 | 13 |
| Germany | 133 | 176 | 114 | 71 | 19 | 39 |
| France | 136 | 85 | 75 | 119 | 34 | 11 |
| Czech Republic | 5 | 23 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 9 |
| Hungary | 26 | 20 | 10 | 22 | 11 | 5 |
| Slovakia | 3 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 2 |
| Spain | 36 | 22 | 17 | 36 | 38 | 2 |
| Portugal | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | |
| Netherlands | 21 | 25 | 13 | 17 | 5 | 4 |
| Belgium | 15 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 2 | |
| Luxembourg | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Baltic | 17 | 50 | 55 | 11 | 24 | 17 |
| ID | Technique | Materials |
|---|---|---|
| T0002 | Facilitate State Propaganda | 216 |
| T0084 | Reuse Existing Content | 216 |
| T0119 | Post across Platform | 72 |
DISARM Red framework; indicative v0 mapping (deterministic category->technique translation, not per-item behavioural coding)
Single: 3241 | Two: 674 | 3+: 459
| Combination | Count |
|---|---|
| France + Germany | 99 |
| France + Spain | 54 |
| Lithuania + Poland | 54 |
| Germany + Poland | 48 |
| France + Poland | 43 |
| Germany + Latvia | 30 |
| Baltic + Latvia | 25 |
| France + Germany + Poland | 22 |
| Germany + Lithuania | 22 |
| Latvia + Lithuania | 18 |
| Канал | Мат. | Threat | Total | Страны | Категории |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| СБ ТВ | 118 | 4.8 | 568 | Germany, Poland, France | 🎯 Военная угроза, 💰 Экономическая |
| Первый национальный канал Белорусского радио | 88 | 4.6 | 405 | France, Germany, Poland | 🎯 Военная угроза, 💰 Экономическая |
| NEWS.BY: новости Беларуси и мира | 85 | 4.9 | 419 | France, Germany, Poland | 🎯 Военная угроза, 💰 Экономическая |
| ВоенТВ Беларуси | 54 | 4.4 | 236 | Latvia, Germany, France | 🎯 Военная угроза, 💰 Экономическая |
| Телеканал Беларусь 24 | 26 | 5.1 | 132 | France, Germany, Poland | 🏛️ Суверенитет, 📜 История |
| Политика. Минская Правда | 15 | 4.9 | 74 | Poland, Lithuania, France | 🎯 Военная угроза, 💰 Экономическая |
| Белорусский институт стратегических исследований | 1 | 1.3 | 1 | France | 🎯 Военная угроза, 💰 Экономическая |
| Источник/Канал | Топ категории |
|---|---|
| sb | 🎯 Военная угроза (470), 📜 История (360), 💰 Экономическая (301) |
| belta | 🎯 Военная угроза (277), 📜 История (203), 💰 Экономическая (199) |
| ctv | 🎯 Военная угроза (252), 💰 Экономическая (194), 🏛️ Суверенитет (137) |
| telegram | 🎯 Военная угроза (248), 📜 История (134), 💰 Экономическая (110) |
| 📺 СБ ТВ | 🎯 Военная угроза (80), 📜 История (74), 💰 Экономическая (71) |
| 📺 NEWS.BY: новости Беларуси и мира | 💰 Экономическая (62), 🎯 Военная угроза (61), 📜 История (57) |
| 📺 Первый национальный канал Белорусского радио | 🎯 Военная угроза (66), 💰 Экономическая (59), 📜 История (50) |
| zapadny_rubesz | 🎯 Военная угроза (165), 📜 История (45), 🏛️ Суверенитет (35) |
| grodnonews | 📜 История (66), 🎯 Военная угроза (58), 🏛️ Суверенитет (43) |
| mlyn | 📜 История (55), 🎯 Военная угроза (45), 💰 Экономическая (41) |
| 📺 ВоенТВ Беларуси | 🎯 Военная угроза (52), 💰 Экономическая (32), 🏛️ Суверенитет (27) |
| belarus_news_rtr | 🎯 Военная угроза (27), 🏛️ Суверенитет (27), 💰 Экономическая (24) |
| 📺 Телеканал Беларусь 24 | 📜 История (23), 🏛️ Суверенитет (22), 🎯 Военная угроза (22) |
| prof1 | 💰 Экономическая (24), 🏛️ Суверенитет (22), 📜 История (20) |
| ont | 🎯 Военная угроза (26), 📜 История (23), 🏛️ Суверенитет (19) |
| 📺 Политика. Минская Правда | 🎯 Военная угроза (12), 💰 Экономическая (10), 📡 Инфовойна (9) |
| 📺 Белорусский институт стратегических исследований | 🎯 Военная угроза (1), 💰 Экономическая (1) |
Событий: 93 | Дней: 31 | Ср. материалов: 12.4
| Дата | Категория | Пример материала | Участники | Кол-во |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | 🎯 Военная угроза | Удары по энергетике России. Паранойя в Литве! 250 ... | belarus_news_rtr, belta, ctv | 60 |
| 2026-07-07 | 🎯 Военная угроза | Очереди на заправках в России | 40 дней Зеленского... | belta, ctv, ont | 48 |
| 2026-07-03 | 🎯 Военная угроза | 🔴 Минск сделал смелое заявление в ООН! Беларусь от... | belarus_news_rtr, belta, ctv | 46 |
| 2026-07-14 | 🎯 Военная угроза | Зачем агроному спутник и дрон? Рэкет Трампа в Орму... | belta, ctv, grodnonews | 40 |
| 2026-07-16 | 🎯 Военная угроза | Польша выгоняет беглых! Атака на ЗАЭС: о чем молчи... | belta, ctv, grodnonews | 38 |
| 2026-07-02 | 🎯 Военная угроза | Усиление и сдерживание... | belta, ctv, grodnonews | 38 |
| 2026-07-10 | 🎯 Военная угроза | Партнёрство Беларуси и Узбекистана | Итоги саммита... | belta, ctv, grodnonews | 37 |
| 2026-07-15 | 🎯 Военная угроза | Стратегия Беларуси в АПК, польза целевого направле... | belta, ctv, grodnonews | 36 |
| 2026-07-17 | 🎯 Военная угроза | О детях замолвим слово... | belta, ctv, grodnonews | 33 |
| 2026-07-09 | 🎯 Военная угроза | Гарантии мира... | belta, ctv, prof1 | 31 |
| 2026-07-29 | 🎯 Военная угроза | Они возвращаются. Об эффекте «бумеранга» в санкцио... | belta, ctv, sb | 30 |
| 2026-07-06 | 🎯 Военная угроза | Европейский автопром умирает? Убытки, сокращения, ... | belta, ctv, prof1 | 29 |
| 2026-07-05 | 🎯 Военная угроза | Лето бьет рекорды: как Беларусь пережила историчес... | belta, ctv, mlyn | 29 |
| 2026-07-31 | 🎯 Военная угроза | Инфляция замедляется, производство растет! Украина... | belta, ctv, grodnonews | 27 |
| 2026-07-13 | 🎯 Военная угроза | МИД РФ заявил об участии Берлина в ударах Киева по... | belta, ctv, sb | 27 |
| Источник/Канал | Событий |
|---|---|
| telegram | 75 |
| belta | 73 |
| sb | 70 |
| ctv | 51 |
| zapadny_rubesz | 42 |
| 📺 СБ ТВ | 26 |
| grodnonews | 25 |
| 📺 NEWS.BY: новости Беларуси и мира | 20 |
| 📺 Первый национальный канал Белорусского радио | 18 |
| 📺 ВоенТВ Беларуси | 14 |
| mlyn | 13 |
| ont | 11 |
| prof1 | 11 |
| belarus_news_rtr | 3 |
| 📺 Политика. Минская Правда | 3 |
Analyzed with full texts: 1725 materials | Average confidence: 82.1%