Key findings of the study / TL;DR
The level of information risks in the 2025 campaign is significantly higher than in 2021.
Information activity in 2025 increased by 48%
The main topics of the 2021 and 2025 information campaigns differ significantly.
A total of 7,877 messages were analyzed. The total number of views was 44,190,462. The change in activity was +48% for posts in 2025 compared to 2021. The risk level was +0.2, representing a change in the average risk level.
Methodology
TGStat, a Telegram channel analytics service, was used to collect data. The query “West-2025” was used in Belarusian and Russian only in Belarusian Telegram channels. The time period was 2021 and 2025, from January 1 to September 21. The LLM model gpt-4o-mini-2024-07-18 was used to analyze the posts.
The following prompt was used for the analysis:
Проанализируй следующее сообщение из беларуского Telegram канала о военных учениях "Запад-{exercise_year}".
Канал: {channel}
Просмотров: {views}
Подписчиков: {subscribers}Текст сообщения: "{message_text[:4096]}..."
Оцени по шкале от 1 до 5 следующие аспекты:
1. Пропагандистская направленность (1 - нейтральная информация, 5 - явная пропаганда)
2. Дезинформация (1 - проверенные факты, 5 - явная ложь/манипуляции)
3. Угрожающий тон (1 - мирный тон, 5 - прямые угрозы)
4. Антизападная риторика (1 - нейтрально к Западу, 5 - явная враждебность)
5. Военная эскалация (1 - миротворческий тон, 5 - призывы к конфликту)Также определи:
- Основные темы (до 5 ключевых тем)
- Тон: нейтральный/позитивный/негативный/агрессивный
- Целевая аудитория: военные/гражданские/международная/внутренняя
- Упоминания стран (список стран, если есть)Ответь СТРОГО в формате JSON:
{{
"propaganda_score": число_от_1_до_5,
"disinformation_score": число_от_1_до_5,
"threat_score": число_от_1_до_5,
"anti_western_score": число_от_1_до_5,
"escalation_score": число_от_1_до_5,
"main_themes": ["тема1", "тема2"],
"tone": "тон",
"target_audience": "аудитория",
"mentioned_countries": ["страна1", "страна2"],
"summary": "краткое резюме в 1-2 предложениях"
}}
Comparison table of results for 2021 and 2025:
|
Zapad-2021 exercises
Risk level: Medium (2.77/5)
📊 Average ratings by criteria:
🔥 Main topics:
🌍 Most frequently mentioned countries:
|
Zapad-2025 exercises
Risk level: Medium (3.00/5)
📊 Average ratings by criteria:
🔥 Main topics:
🌍 Most frequently mentioned countries:
|
Comparison of ratings by criteria
The data shows minor differences between 2021 and 2025:
Propaganda: virtually unchanged (4.04 vs. 4.01)
Disinformation: increased from 1.99 to 2.31
Threats: increased from 2.06 to 2.32
Anti-Westernism: increased from 3.33 to 3.64
Escalation: increased from 2.42 to 2.72
All indicators show a moderate increase in the aggressiveness of rhetoric.
Audience engagement analysis
A significant increase in activity has been observed:
Number of messages: from 3,179 to 4,698 (+48%)
Total views: from 13.8 million to 30.3 million (+118%)
Average views per post: from 4,369 to 6,450 (+48%)
Number of channels: from 313 to 474 (+51%)
This indicates a significant expansion of the information campaign.
Comparison of channels by number of publications
In 2025, Sputnik Belarus (affiliated with Russia’s RIA Novosti) became the leader. Channels with aggressive, militarized language dominate the top 20, which contrasts with the more diverse composition of 2021, which included democratic channels.
Compared by viewership, the channel with the characteristic name “Belarusian Security Official” leads the way in 2025.
In 2021, the leaders were pro-democracy channels:
The situation looks somewhat different in 2025:
Negative sentiment increased from 39.7% to 57.5%, while aggressive sentiment increased from 7.6% to 8.5%. This indicates a significant deterioration in the tone of coverage.
Main topics of messages in 2021:
Main topics of messages in 2025:
In 2025, the dominant themes are security, military exercises Zapad 2025, border closures, and national security, reflecting the focus on military defense.
Now let’s examine how threat levels have changed in reports about Zapad 2021 and Zapad 2025.
Threat levels in 2021:
Threat level in 2025:
Final comparison of channels by threat level.
In 2021:
In 2025:
Conclusions
Escalation of Information Risks: All measured parameters (disinformation, threats, anti-Western rhetoric) showed an increase, indicating a growing aggressiveness in the information space.
Campaign Scaling: A nearly twofold increase in audience reach indicates a significant expansion of information impact.
Changing Media Landscape: The dominance of Russian-affiliated and toxic channels in 2025 versus a more diverse composition in 2021 indicates structural changes in the Belarusian information space.
Coordination: The concentration of high threat indicators among leading channels suggests a coordinated information strategy.
The study demonstrates a significant deterioration in the quality of the information environment in Belarus in the period between the two military exercises, which could have serious consequences for public discourse and regional stability.
Collecteddatasetmessages from Belarusian Telegram channels.
