How Belarusian state media reported on the Baltic states and Poland — October 2025

Key findings of the study / TL;DR
In October 2025, tensions between Belarus and Lithuania escalated. A detailed analysis of the coordinated actions via Telegram was provided in this publication:From cigarette balloons to military threats: signs of a coordinated information attack.

Another country mentioned by Belarusian state-owned media—Estonia—was added to the October analysis. We will now monitor all Baltic states.
A total of 534 mentions were found in 357 videos.
Poland was mentioned in 247 videos, garnering over 31 million views.
Lithuania was mentioned in 175 videos with over 7 million views.
Latvia was mentioned in 80 videos with nearly 5 million views.
And Estonia was mentioned in 32 videos, garnering 1.7 million views.

Despite the relatively small number of mentions (32 videos), Estonia demonstrates the highest average risk level among all the countries analyzed, achieving a score of 5.8 out of 10 possible points.

Methodology

The analysis was conducted using metadata and YouTube video fragments from Belarusian state media. Methods of automatic sentiment analysis, thematic frame extraction, and temporal analysis were used. Disinformation narratives were analyzed and hypotheses for future classic fact-checking publications were developed.
Where LLM capabilities were used:

• video transcription into text;
• to assess disinformation risks;
• fact-checking.

Summary charts and representative quotes have been prepared for each country.

General overview

Dynamics of mentions by week

The graph clearly demonstrates a coordinated information campaign against Lithuania in late October. The sharp increase is not organic; it is the result of targeted actions by Belarusian state media in response to events at the border.

Distribution by channels and countries

The high concentration of content production in the hands of two or three channels indicates centralized control of information campaigns. These are not disparate media outlets, but a coordinated system.
The distribution reveals the priorities of Belarusian propaganda:

1. Poland is the main geopolitical rival and “enemy”
2. Lithuania is a border country, a target for escalation.
3. Latvia is a secondary target
4. Estonia – the beginning of inclusion in narratives

Activity by day of the week:

• Midweek is the time to launch major information campaigns.
• Tuesday is optimal for maximum reach throughout the week.
• Weekends see a drop in activity, which is unusual for organic media.
• This is a pattern of controlled content production, not spontaneous news flow.

LLM analysis of disinformation
Analyzed357Video using the OpenAI gpt-4o-mini model.
Detected79Videos with a high risk of misinformation (22.1% of those analyzed).

AI analysis results

The heat map displays the intensity of various disinformation techniques by channel. The vertical axis represents channels, the horizontal axis represents technique types, and the color gradation from light to dark red reflects the intensity of each technique.
The analyzed techniques include false facts (unverified claims and outright falsifications), emotional manipulation (the use of fear, anger, and other strong emotions), conspiracy theories, and dehumanization (demonization and dehumanization of opponents).
CTVBY demonstrates a high intensity of false facts at 3.7, which is significant. However, emotional manipulation reaches the highest score of 4.3 among all channels and techniques. Conspiracy theories are used at 3.1, while dehumanization remains relatively low at 1.3. This channel is the most manipulative in the Belarusian state media system.
NEWS.BY demonstrates a more restrained approach, with false facts at a level of 1.2, emotional manipulation at 2.3, conspiracy theories at 0.6, and dehumanization at 0.6. This channel positions itself as a more neutral news source.
The BelTA news agency presents an unexpected case. With relatively moderate false facts at a level of 1.6, the channel demonstrates critically high emotional manipulation at 4.9 – the highest among all channels. Conspiracy theories are at a level of 1.1, and dehumanization at 1.6. Such a high level of manipulation is especially noteworthy for an agency that traditionally positions itself as an official and factual source of information.
SBTV shows false facts at a level of 1.2, emotional manipulation at 3.4, conspiracy theories at 1.1, and dehumanization at 1.4, representing an average level among the analyzed channels.

ONT is the most restrained channel, with false facts at 1.5, emotional manipulation at 2.3, conspiracy theories at 0.3, and dehumanization at 0.7. This reflects its positioning as an official state channel with a more respectable presentation.

Key patterns show that emotional manipulation is the dominant technique, with an average rating of 3.4 among all channels. BelTA and CTVBY lead in manipulation, with ratings of 4.9 and 4.3, respectively. False facts are used more sparingly, ranging from 1.2 to 3.7. Conspiracy theories and dehumanization are less popular techniques, with ratings in the 0.3 to 1.6 range.

Belarusian state media focus on emotions rather than outright lies. This is a more effective strategy for several reasons. Emotions are significantly more difficult to fact-check, as they do not contain specific factual assertions. Emotions create the necessary perception of events without resorting to outright lies that are easily refuted. Furthermore, emotionally charged content is more easily moderated on platforms because it doesn’t violate explicit anti-disinformation policies.

Top High-Risk Videos

Name	Channel	Country	General risk	False facts	Emotional manipulation	Priority
The Shocking Truth About the Border! The Baltic Borders…	SBTV	Lithuania	9.0	8.0	9.0	high
NATO is preparing an attack on Belarus and Russia! #pol…	CTVBY	Latvia	9.0	8.0	7.0	high
SURGERY WAS MISTAKEN! Doctors in Poland crippled…	CTVBY	Poland	9.0	8.0	9.0	high
The European Union has a 5-year war plan ready! #eu #…	CTVBY	Poland	9.0	8.0	7.0	high
Things are only getting worse! Lithuania is planning to close its borders…	SBTV	Lithuania	8.0	8.0	7.0	high
This is happening all over Europe! War, Nord Stream, and…	SBTV	Lithuania	8.0	8.0	7.0	high
The BNR Rada in exile. Whose ears are behind this project?	SBTV	Lithuania	8.0	8.0	7.0	high
Was the American CIA trying to revive the BNR? #Belarus…	CTVBY	Lithuania	8.0	8.0	6.0	high
Koktysh on the preparations for the invasion of Belarus and how…	ONT TV channel	Lithuania	8.0	8.0	7.0	high
Germany will help Latvia mine the border with Belarus.	CTVBY	Latvia	8.0	8.0	7.0	high

Bank of statements for fact-checking
Systematizing controversial claims creates a basis for further verification and countering disinformation.
Revealed20Statements requiring priority verification

The statement “The shocking truth about the border! The Baltic borders look like scenes from a horror movie” ranks first, with a risk level of 9.0 out of 10. This statement was disseminated by SBTV in the context of Lithuania, using false facts at a risk level of 8.0 combined with emotional manipulation at a risk level of 9.0.

The second most dangerous statement is “NATO is preparing an attack on Belarus and Russia,” also with a risk level of 9.0 out of 10. CTVBY disseminated this statement in the context of Latvia, using false facts at a risk level of 8.0 and emotional manipulation at a risk level of 7.0.
Third place goes to “THE OPERATION WAS DONE BY ERROR!” “Doctors in Poland crippled a patient” with a risk rating of 9.0 out of 10. CTVBY used this claim against Poland, combining false facts at a risk rating of 8.0 with emotional manipulation at a risk rating of 9.0.

Fourth place goes to the claim “The EU has a 5-year war plan prepared!” with a risk rating of 9.0 out of 10. CTVBY amplified this claim against Poland, using false facts at a risk rating of 8.0, emotional manipulation at a risk rating of 7.0, and conspiracy theories at a critical level of 9.0.

Fifth place goes to “It’s only going to get worse! Lithuania is planning to close its border with Belarus” with a risk rating of 8.0 out of 10. SBTV amplified this claim using false facts at a risk rating of 8.0 combined with emotional manipulation at a risk rating of 7.0.

Categorizing all 20 claims reveals several key threat vectors. Eight statements relate to military threats, including narratives about NATO preparing an attack, Poland preparing for war, the EU developing a military plan, and Lithuania closing its border in preparation for conflict.

Five statements focus on dehumanization through stories of erroneous operations demonstrating alleged medical negligence, a collapse at the border, and the inhumanity of security forces. Four statements develop conspiracy theories about a five-year war plan, the American CIA reviving the BNR, and forces destroying the European Union from within.
Three statements focus on discrimination, claiming that Estonia is depriving Russian speakers of the right to vote, and Latvia is banning the use of the Russian language.

The fact-check database demonstrates structured threats across all areas of information warfare, from military escalation to social discrimination, from medical horror stories to geopolitical conspiracies. This is not a chaotic collection of false claims, but a systematic program of disinformation that encompasses all aspects of the perception of European Union countries.

No.	Video title	Statement	Channel	Country	Risk	Priority	Status
1	The Shocking Truth About the Border! K…	the shocking truth about the border	SBTV	Lithuania	9.0	high	requires verification
2	The Shocking Truth About the Border! K…	The Baltic borders look like scenes from a horror movie.	SBTV	Lithuania	9.0	high	requires verification
3	NATO is preparing an attack on Bel…	pro-fascist regime in Latvia	CTVBY	Latvia	9.0	high	requires verification
4	NATO is preparing an attack on Bel…	NATO is preparing an attack on Belarus and Russia.	CTVBY	Latvia	9.0	high	requires verification
5	THEY DID THE OPERATION BY ERROR! Time…	operation by mistake	CTVBY	Poland	9.0	high	requires verification
6	THEY DID THE OPERATION BY ERROR! Time…	crippled the patient	CTVBY	Poland	9.0	high	requires verification
7	THEY DID THE OPERATION BY ERROR! Time…	medical negligence	CTVBY	Poland	9.0	high	requires verification
8	The European Union has prepared a 5-year plan…	A 5-year plan for war in the European Union	CTVBY	Poland	9.0	high	requires verification
9	It only gets worse! Lithuania is gathering…	Lithuania plans to close its border with Belarus.	SBTV	Lithuania	8.0	high	requires verification
10	This is happening all over Europe! War, S…	Lithuania and Poland nurtured	SBTV	Lithuania	8.0	high	requires verification
11	This is happening all over Europe! War, S…	The Poles are covering	SBTV	Lithuania	8.0	high	requires verification
12	This is happening all over Europe! War, S…	Who is destroying the EU?	SBTV	Lithuania	8.0	high	requires verification
13	The BNR Council in Exile. Whose ears are…	Found by the BNR Council in Exile	SBTV	Lithuania	8.0	high	requires verification
14	The BNR Council in Exile. Whose ears are…	Whose ears are behind this project?	SBTV	Lithuania	8.0	high	requires verification
15	The American CIA tried to revive…	The American CIA tried to revive the BNR	CTVBY	Lithuania	8.0	high	requires verification
16	Koktysh on preparing for the invasion…	preparations for the invasion of Belarus	ONT TV channel	Lithuania	8.0	high	requires verification
17	Germany will help Latvia.	Germany will help Latvia mine its border with Belarus.	CTVBY	Latvia	8.0	high	requires verification
18	Latvian security forces have thrown down migrants…	refugees were beaten	CTVBY	Latvia	8.0	high	requires verification
19	Latvian security forces have thrown down migrants…	Latvian security forces threw migrants into a river	CTVBY	Latvia	8.0	high	requires verification
20	If you want to join the EU, you have to pay! The authorities of La…	You need to pay money to enter Latvia	CTVBY	Latvia	8.0	high	requires verification

Videos with the highest risk for the Baltic States and Poland

Lithuania – Top Episodes

Lithuania became the center of information escalation in October 2025. The country was mentioned in 175 videos, accounting for 39.0% of the total, garnering over 7 million views. The average risk level is 3.5 out of 10, a relatively moderate figure compared to other countries.
The dynamics of mentions tell a dramatic story. The first two weeks of October were characterized by a stable level of 15-28 mentions per week. The third week showed a moderate increase to 30 mentions. However, the fourth week marked a critical escalation, with a sharp jump to over 90 mentions. This represents a threefold increase in just one week.
Thematic analysis reveals several key themes. The border crisis has become a dominant theme, with an emphasis on the alleged brutality of Lithuanian border guards. Narratives have emerged about preparations to close the border, which is presented as an aggressive action. The theme of a future war is developing, with accusations of military preparations. Themes of refugees and humanitarian crises are also used to create an image of inhumanity.
The interpretation of these events points to a coordinated information campaign to prepare for escalation. The sharp increase is not random or organic, but represents a targeted campaign. Information justification is being created for possible hybrid attacks, such as provocations at the border or an orchestrated migration crisis.

We show up to 15 entries with the highest risk.

Latvia – Top Episodes

We show up to 15 entries with the highest risk.

Latvia occupies an intermediate position with 80 videos (13.1% of the total) and approximately 5 million views. This makes it the third most important country targeted by Belarusian state media. The risk level is 5.0 out of 10, making Latvia the second-highest risk after Estonia and indicating a consistently high level of toxic content.

Thematic analysis reveals a focus on the problems of the Russian-speaking population. The primary focus is on alleged discrimination against Russians in Latvia. Language policy is presented as a tool for oppressing Russian-speaking residents. A narrative of a fascist regime is developed, which is an extreme form of demonization. Themes of security forces and refugees are also used to create an overall negative image.

The significance of the Latvian focus is that Latvia is positioned as a middle-of-the-road enemy, receiving less attention than Poland and Lithuania, but consistently demonized in content. A key feature is the Russian-language theme – Latvia is used to appeal to the Russian-speaking diaspora in the region and to create a narrative of systemic discrimination against Russians in the Baltic states.

The strategic conclusion shows that Latvia serves a specific purpose in the Belarusian propaganda system. The country is used to reach Russian-speaking audiences both within Latvia and in the other Baltic states and the region as a whole. This creates a narrative of discrimination against Russians in the Baltics, which could serve as the basis for future information or hybrid operations.

Poland – Top Episodes

We show up to 15 entries with the highest risk.

Poland is the primary target of Belarusian propaganda, with 247 videos, accounting for 42% of all content. These videos have garnered over 31 million views, making Poland the leader in audience reach. The average risk level is 4.5 out of 10, a significant figure.

The dynamics of mentions of Poland are characterized by stability, without any sudden spikes. The weekly number of mentions fluctuates between 15 and 42, demonstrating a predictable activity pattern.

Thematic focus is concentrated on several key areas. Military preparations are constantly presented as a threat to Belarus. A narrative of a planned attack on Poland by Belarus or Russia is being developed. Stories of erroneous operations are used to undermine trust in Polish healthcare and state institutions. The theme of provocations at the border serves to justify tensions in relations.

The significance of the Polish focus lies in the fact that Poland represents the basic narrative of Belarusian propaganda. Anti-Polish themes don’t require special escalation, as audiences are accustomed to constant negative coverage of the country. Poland functions as a constant background enemy, upon which the entire system of anti-Western propaganda is built.
At the same time, Poland remains the main threat in the perceptions created by Belarusian state media. Its largest reach, with over 31 million views, and the longest and most systematic coverage, make it a core element of the propaganda machine.

The strategic conclusion is that Poland is the foundation of Belarus’s anti-Western propaganda. Other narratives and campaigns are built on this foundation. Understanding the Polish narrative is critical to understanding the entire system of Belarusian information warfare.

Estonia – Top Episodes

The volume of content is still small – just 32 videos, or 5.8% of the total, with approximately 1.7 million views. However, this country demonstrates the highest average risk of disinformation, with a score of 5.8 out of 10.

The thematic focus of Estonian narratives is concentrated on several key areas. The main theme is the disenfranchisement of the Russian-speaking population, which is presented as a manifestation of discriminatory policies. A second important area is the accusation of child labor, which creates the image of an inhumane society. The third line of attack is related to criticism of the security forces and the country’s overall policies.

The inclusion of Estonia in the monitoring is significant. Belarusian state media are testing new narratives, assessing which topics and approaches are most effective in discrediting this Baltic republic. A high average risk indicates a willingness to use the most aggressive and toxic approaches. This is an expansion of the information war to all Baltic states, creating a united front against the region. The strategic conclusion is clear: although Estonia currently receives little attention, it requires close monitoring. Belarusian state media are creating a narrative base for future escalation, similar to what is currently being observed with Lithuania.

We show the entries with the highest risk.

General conclusion

THREAT 1: Systemic disinformation (not an accident)
The monitoring data clearly shows that 61.3% of all content is manipulative, including those in the medium and high risk categories. Of this, 22.1% is classified as critically dangerous, requiring immediate action. All top 5 channels demonstrate a high risk level, ranging from 3.8 to 4.8 out of 10 possible points.

These are not isolated cases of disinformation or media missteps. The observed pattern demonstrates a systemic policy of Belarusian state media, where disinformation is not a side effect, but a primary product. The media machine is specifically tuned to produce manipulative content as its primary function.

THREAT 2: Preparation for escalation on the border with Lithuania
A threefold increase in mentions of Lithuania in a single week represents an unprecedented escalation. The emergence of the border closure topic in the media, accompanied by accusations of preparations for war, creates the preconditions for justifying aggressive actions.

THREAT 3: Coordination with Russia against NATO
The analysis reveals unified narratives about NATO’s readiness for war, synchronized with Russian media. There is a consistent thematic focus on Poland and the Baltic states, which represent NATO’s eastern flank. This coordination is evident not only in the topics but also in the timing of publications and the wording used.

Belarus functions as part of the Russian information infrastructure, creating narratives to justify potential aggression or destabilization of NATO. Belarusian state media act as an amplifier of Russian narratives, simultaneously adapting them to the specifics of the region and creating additional distribution channels.

THREAT 4: Expansion of the information war (Estonia)
Testing new narratives about child labor and the deprivation of rights demonstrates a search for effective attack points. The highest average risk of 5.8 out of 10 indicates a willingness to employ the most aggressive approaches.
Belarus is scaling up its information warfare, creating a system of narratives against all Baltic states without exception. This is not a tactical campaign in response to specific events, but a long-term strategy for building a hostile information space around the entire region. Estonia represents the next stage of this expansion.

THREAT 5: Targeting the Russian-speaking diaspora
The special focus on Latvia, with its emphasis on language policy, the attention to Estonia regarding the voting rights of Russians, and the systematic development of themes of discrimination against Russian-speaking residents indicate a targeted approach to a specific audience.
The goal of this strategy is to create divisions within Baltic societies through Russian-speaking audiences. Belarusian state media are attempting to create a “fifth column,” or at least a protest sentiment, among the Russian-speaking population. This could be used to destabilize the situation, create internal conflicts, and weaken social cohesion in the Baltic states.

THREAT 6: Emotional manipulation as the main tacticEmotional manipulation is the dominant technique, with an average rating of 3.4 among all channels. CTVBY and BelTA demonstrate critical levels at 4.3 and 4.9, respectively. Notably, less outright lies are used, and more emotional appeal is used.
This indicates a shift to more sophisticated methods of information warfare. Emotional content is significantly more difficult to fact-check, as it lacks specific factual assertions. Emotional appeal is more effective in influencing audience perceptions and opinion formation. Furthermore, emotionally charged content is more easily moderated on platforms, as it does not violate explicit rules against disinformation and false claims.